|
A forward to Kerry supporters:
If he wins the nomination, I will support Kerry whole-heartedly because he will be my only chance. I have no issues with him as a person. Its just that my analysis finds him a weaker candidate. I do not want to get into a flame war with Kerry supporters because I am willing to work with him later.
"Its the War, Stupid!" or Why I will support Dean. by arendt
I am convinced that if George Bush wins the 2004 election, any chance for restoring democracy in America will end. So, I have been searching for the candidate most likely to beat Bush. I am totally ruthless on this subject. I intend to work in the primaries for the candidate I believe most likely to beat Bush. In the general election, I will support the Democratic candidate unless it is Holy Joe Lieberman, DINO.
There are only two serious candidates at this point - Dean and Kerry.
For at least a year, I have been waiting for Senator Kerry to convince me he can beat George Bush. From what I can see, Senator Kerry is taking the Democratic activist base for granted, and pursuing the centrist vote by emphasizing his military credentials, including his vote FOR the war and FOR the Patriot Act.
Meanwhile, despite all the media feeding frenzy, I think the ?Fortune? magazine article nails it: Dean is a Rockefeller Republican: balanced budgets, socially liberal, supporter of big government, but no screaming liberal. His governorship was as calculating an act of political carpetbagging as Bobby Kennedy going to New York to be a Senator. Anyone who thinks Dean is a true liberal is in a cargo cult, and should seek treatment.
Having said all that, Dean has been AGAINST the war and AGAINST the Patriot Act all along. Now, it is almost certainly fair to say that Dean's anti-war stance was easier to pull off than if he were a sitting Senator during the propaganda blitz leading up to the disgraceful Iraq vote. Nevertheless, Dean took the right stance on the biggest issues out there: saving our Constitutional government from a corporate/fundamentalist takeover.
For me, it all comes down to the various PHONY wars of George Bush, and the two REAL wars. The phony war on Al Qaida. The phony war on Iraq. The phony war on Drugs. The phony war on domestic "terrorism". The very real war on our Constitution. And the suicidal war on our middle class.
Now, all the Democrats understand the war on the middle class. These are meat-and-potatoes Democratic issues, a working stiff's pocketbook, health care, job and retirement security. The problem with the economy, as an issue in the PRIMARY, is that it fails to differentiate the candidates. Worse, it allows candidates to duck the tougher issues. They can say: I blasted Bush on the economy. My reaction is: so what? Did you blast him on: the Patriot Act, the lies, the Iraq quagmire, the lies, Guantanamo and the ICC, the lies?
The DLC democrats, with Joe Lieberman walking point, have declared war on other Democrats for not supporting our glorious maximum leader's anti-Moslem crusade and its home front, John Ashcroft's religious Gestapo. Why am I having trouble hearing John Kerry's, John Edwards' and Dick Gephardt's immediate and repeated denunciations of Lieberman? Therein lies the fact that convinces me.
I am convinced that Gephardt, and Edwards are too concerned with consistency and/or sounding "conservative". For all their protestations, their behavior so far on the big issue, war, has been "Bush lite". Kerry is more problematic.
He has criticized Bush's foreign policy, but in a very lofty way. He has to be lofty because he is hamstrung by the position he has taken to justify his votes for blank-check wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and for secret police methods at home. A month ago, he was handed a perfect set-up to say that his vote for the Iraq war was based on Bush's Lies. But he mumbled and hedged and dodged. The result is that today Bush sits at his ranch or runs around raising funds, while the country's infra- structure and its two wars fall apart; and Kerry is not hammering the shit out of him. But Rush Limbaugh and the right-wing hatchet brigade are hammering Kerry with idiocy about cheese steaks.
It is the intangibles that drive me to Dean. It is intangible that Kerry does not hit back at insidious, corrosive personality smear jobs about his parentage or the propriety of marrying Senator Heinz's widow. I get the sense that he does not understand what a stinking, slimy mess it is to take on the GOP and their lapdog media. Running for office in Massachusetts, he has never felt the full force of the GOP smear and lie shop. This race will be all about smears, slander, slash and burn politics. I want someone who can dish it out, not just shrug it off.
It is intangible that Kerry talks so softly when he is from such a safe state so that he did not even have a GOP opponent in the 2002 election. The sense I get is that he wants the liberal vote, but he is ashamed to wear the liberal label.
It is intangible that Kerry says he won't spend his own money or his wife's money to campaign. It is intangible that Kerry's wife is a very liberal activist. It is intangible that Kerry threw SOMEONE ELSE'S medals over the White House fence. But these kinds of intangibles can be turned into liabilities by the GOP Lie Machine, regardless of their veracity or their relevance.
Dean, OTOH, seems to be up-front. His wife is totally non-political, which in itself ought to generate good publicity, with little room for a smear job. How the hell do you smear a doctor doing her job?
The very things in Dean's resume that progressives wring their hands about are what makes it possible for him to move to the center in the GENERAL election. I have no illusions. Dean is a Rockefeller Republican. He will run on an image of balanced budgets ( a great thing compared to Bush, but not the Holy Grail of progressives), the right to carry guns (anathema to the progressives, but starting to make more sense as Ashcroft's Gestapo and stoolie squads take shape), and an honest, outspoken criticism of Bush's phony and real wars. He may be able to pull moderate Republicans away from the GOP. Now, THAT gets my attention.
The problem for progressives is that the twenty year downsizing/outsourcing of our economy and the ten year media propaganda campaign have produced an entire generation of cynical, politically apathetic, and generally government-hating, tax-hating, celebrity-worshipping, non-voters. By the application of huge amounts of money, the American public has been moved far, far to the right.
It may be that, in this climate, a Rockefeller Republican is as far to the left as the "center" can be dragged in the next election. If that is true, then Dean really is our only chance. And yes, I know that is what we were told about Bill Clinton. But, if Bill Clinton could be the Democratic candidate in 2004, would you vote against him? (Note, I am no big fan of Mr. NAFTA, GATT, Telecom "reform", welfare "reform". He did balance the budget, though.)
John Kerry, despite his carefully groomed military background, is too easy to caricature as a rich Massachusetts liberal, tax-and-spend Democrat, ex-hippie war protestor. Its not true, but the public is too propagandized to spot the lie. We've seen the media do it before. The GOP will tie him to Teddy Kennedy (whom I love, but whom much of the rest of the country hates), Michael Dukakis, and every long-haired, wild-eyed poseur on a soapbox in Harvard Square that Fox News can find, entice, or bribe.
As far as I'm concerned, Kerry has waited too long; pulled his punches too long. Dean has blown right past him. You can say that this is all a dastardly Karl Rove plot. Myself, I'm sick of double and triple spin; and so is the public. They want someone willing to level with them, like Dean. They don't want more equivocations from an insider like Kerry. His position is way too nuanced to get through the media filter that is running. He doesn't have any clear soundbites. He has to talk around too much baggage.
Meanwhile, Dean operates, as the German General Rommel did. He is always on the strategic offensive but the tactical defensive. That is, he grabs a strong position when no one else appreciates that it is key. Then, he defends that position when others come to realize its importance and try to take it from him. He has clear soundbites; he's against the war and for a balanced budget. That's the level of nuance that can get through the media filter.
If the media try to label Dean a liberal, he pulls out his Rockefeller credentials. If the media tell the truth, they are forced to admit that Dean has appeal to moderate Republicans and fans of blunt spoken, hot-headed John McCain. Either way, he wins. OTOH, if Kerry tries to run as Bush-lite, he loses the progressives plus he is called a hypocrite by the media. If he runs as a liberal, you will see a lot of video of Harvard Square and Michael Dukakis. Is the contrast clear yet?
The other thing about Dean is that he has the Internet-savvy people. He even admits they came to him. But, once again, its that Rommel tactic. He recognized the value of this asset, which he now deploys in his defense. The Internet is critical because it is the only source of real news, as opposed to the corporate/GOP propaganda that plays non-stop on all the corporate outlets. It is also a fund-raising demon. I do not sense much Internet presence in the Kerry camp; and, like campaign advisers, once the heavy-hitters have signed up, the remaining candidates are SOL. The internet heavy-hitters have signed up with Dean.
Those are my instincts and my analysis. I've picked.
Can some Dean activist in Massachusetts tell me about the organization here and in New Hampshire? I'm ready to join up. How do I take over my local Democratic organization?
To all DUers:
Can we please try to "model" appropriate civic courtesy regarding our INTRA-party contest? The American public has been subliminally indoctrinated that politics is all about shouting loudly, cheating, kicking people in the nuts, and never apologizing. If we want to get our democracy back, we have to behave civilly towards people who DO have honorable intentions but disagree with us. We have to show "good sportsmanship" to people who play the game fairly. But, we have to identify thugs and phonies like 98% of the GOP POLITICIANS, and DINOs like Lieberman.
This civility and courtesy can be carried over to INTER-party contests. How do you separate the good sports from the thugs? My formulation is along the lines of the classic diplomatic phraseology: "We don't have a problem with the XXX people, we have a problem with the political leadership of country XXX." The talking point in recruiting GOPers goes like this:
> I don't hate rank-and-file Republicans. When their principles and programs > are not turned into ultimatums, they add greatly to the political discussion > in this country. Recently, however, they have been led astray by a devious, > secretive, phony leadership. > > I believe a lot of Republicans are appalled at how un-conservative this > administration has been. The military, up to Joint Chiefs level, is angry at > how it has been used and abused by the neocon Cabal. The NRA is appalled > at Bush's action, both in America and in Iraq. The Libertarians think Bush > is worse than Clinton. The states rights conservatives were double > crossed by the Supreme Court in 2000, and by John Ashcroft many times > since then. The people of Nevada were double-crossed by Bush over a nuclear > waste dump. The business community is suffering heavily under extreme financial > mismanagement and the lack of prosecution of well-connected crooks. > > I think rank-and-file Republicans should take a good look at Howard Dean, > a centrist from a rural state, a supporter of gun rights and balanced budgets, > a doctor, a person with Wall Street experience. Your loyalty to America > is our strongest asset. I ask you to consider if George Bush has respected > your loyalty or just thinks you are a chump who will salute the flag and > obey orders. Look at Dean's record, and compare it with the "another > McGovern" smear job that you are being told to swallow. Tell me that > Dean is worse for the country than Arnold Schwarzenneger.
|