How Long Will Allawi Last In Iraq?

[ThomWV]

I hate to say this but I would guess and say that Iraq's interim Prime Minister, Iyad Allawi, will be dead by the first of August.

How long do you think he will last in his new office?

[Padraig18]

1. A month is about right. n/t

[qazplm]

2. If I were that guy

I would be updating my will hourly.

My thought is that two candidates will emerge come January.

One will advocate continuing to work with the US, and one will advocate kicking out the US, the winner will have LONG TERM implications for Iraq, America, the middle east and the world.

(Since I am going over in a month, I'm hoping the latter candidate wins ;))

[daa]

3. He will never be in charge

He will not be able to order martial law.

He will not be able to order military attacks.

He will not be able to stop US military attacks.

He will not control the ports.

He will not control the oil money.

He cannot buy weapons from anyone except the US.

He is a chimpy puppet and is irrelavent by already being rejected by the Iraqi people.

[Jack Rabbit]

4. Anybody's guess

While the possibility of his violent demise is hardly remote, picking a date for the event seems a bit hazardous. So does picking exactly who would do him in, as there seems no united resistance right now but a number of different factions all taking aim at the Bushies and their puppets. Zarqawi has openly vowed to kill Allawi, but someone not associated with Zarqawi could beat him to the punch.

The better question is: How long will the interim government hold power? In spite of official blessings from the EU and the UN, it is no more a legitimate government responsible to the Iraqi people than was any Saigon regime imposed by the Americans on the mythical Republic of (South) Vietnam. Ambassador Negroponte will be no less a colonial viceroy than was Paul Bremer. Iraq will be no more sovereign next week than it was last.

[ThomWV]

5. I'm Sure You're Right

I guess in the background what I'm really wondering is what will be the reaction by the Bush Administration to what I expect will be the rapid murder of many members of the interim government. I agree that it could be almost anyone who was responsible but I think its going to be an out and out bloodbath of politicians in Iraq. You watch for the bloodshed on wednesday and thursday.

[Jack Rabbit]

6. Wednesday and Thursday?

What about all last week? There were over a hundred people killed in one day.

I guess in the background what I'm really wondering is what will be the reaction by the Bush Administration to what I expect will be the rapid murder of many members of the interim government.

Members of the interim government have been assassinated in the last few days. We don't need to speculate on how the Bushies will react.

The Bushies bombed Falluja twice last week, claiming they killed "terrorists" while targeting "safehouses" for Zarqawi. Maybe they were targeting safehouses for Zarqawi; however, given the Bushies' track record for veracity, I'll reserve judgment as to whether any were hit or whether anybody killed was a terrorist. According to people who live in Falluja, Zarqawi isn't there. That, too, may or may not be true.

[Jack Rabbit]

8. For example . . .

From the BBC Online
Dated Saturday June 26 19:18 GMT (12:18 pm PDT)

Many casualties in Iraq bombing

At least 17 people have been killed and dozens hurt in a massive car bombing in the Iraqi town of Hilla, reports say.
Details are still coming in about the explosion in the centre of the mainly Shia Muslim town about 100km (60 miles) south of the capital, Baghdad.
The blast comes amid an upsurge of violence in the final days before the US-led coalition transfers sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government.

Read more. The link will automatically update.

[Yupster]

7. Karzai has for sure

beaten my estimates. No way I ever gave him a year.