Josh Marshall is back

[lancdem]

but there's nothing about his "bombshell" yet. I can't wait!

http://talkingpointsmemo.com

[Elidor]

1. It's not a "bombshell"

It's a "shuffle of the tectonic plates." Please keep your metaphors straight. :P

[SW FL Dem]

2. You aren't the only one! n/t

[fizzana]

3. The story won't be breaking on his blog but in print.

n/t

[59millionmorons]

4. No, but this has to upset Bush supporters

By Frank Newport (Gallup)

Based on historical patterns, Bush's job approval rating is thus underperforming the pattern of presidents who have won re-election. In the broadest sense, Bush's job approval rating has generally been remarkably stable this year, averaging about 50% (which is a symbolic dividing line for an incumbent seeking re-election) since mid-January. The current downtick in his ratings puts him below the pattern of successful presidents. Having a rating below 50% (as is the case with his last four ratings) is not a good sign for an incumbent. If Bush wins this November, he would be the first president since Harry Truman to come from a below 50% rating to win re-election.

The fact that Bush has been behind the likely Democratic nominee, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, in several Gallup Poll re-election trial heat ballots this year, means that Bush's re-election probabilities are lower than those of his successful predecessors. None of the five presidents who won re-election were behind their eventual opponent in any trial heats after January in the year prior to their election. If Bush wins this year, he will become the first president to come from behind in election year spring polls to win.

The trial heat patterns of the three presidents who eventually lost were erratic enough, however, to suggest that fluidity is the norm rather than the exception in trial heat ballots at this point in the campaign.

[Gothmog]

5. I still want to know what the story is

I hope that his big story comes out soon.