What if Bush wins the popular vote but Kerry wins the electoral college?

[ringmastery]

I would find this absolutely hilarious if republicans start screaming bloody murder.

It's possible, very possible.

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/may2004/nf2004061_3855_db038.htm

Gore's Revenge.
Here's the most intriguing scenario. This time, Bush really wins Florida without a recount. And while he doesn't win states way out of his reach in 2000, such as New York and California, he picks up votes in these giants nonetheless. Remember that the GOP nomination convention will be held in the first week of September in New York, where memories of September 11 are still vivid. And in the Golden State, a very popular GOP governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, will campaign on the President's behalf. Bush probably won't win these states, but he'll do better than last time.

Compound this in other enclaves, and instead of losing the popular vote by 500,000 as he did in 2000, Bush ekes out a razor-thin victory nationally in the popular vote -- but this time, he loses in the Electoral College. How? Ohio and West Virginia go for Kerry, as voter anger over the loss of manufacturing jobs under Bush's tenure bubbles over. Remember that West Virginia, which supported Bush in 2000, traditionally leans Democratic in national contests. And no Republican has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio -- yet support for Bush in the Buckeye State is floundering.

Far-fetched? There's an old saying that, in politics, absurdity is never a handicap.

[aquart]

1. It would be hard to stop laughing.

George isn't picking up any votes in NY.

[WindRavenX]

2. That would be irony at its finest!

But as humourous as it would be, I would much prefer Kerry beating the crap out of Bush so there is no debate as to who is the next president.
But it would be *so* funny...

[RummyTheDummy]

13. Delicious Irony!

Even more so than the French capturing Bin Laden.

[HEyHEY]

3. Then the Happy Happy Joy Joy dance gets halted for the

"In your face monkey boy! Caram's a bitch" dance

[Jack Rabbit]

4. The only way Bush will win the popular vote

The only way Bush will win the popular vote is if Diebold makes sure he does.

[Skarbrowe]

16. I agree about Diebold and other voting machines and

other fraudulent ways of keeping minorites from voting. If votes are counted correctly, there is no way George could get more popular votes than Kerry. A lot of Democrats were not that happy with Gore and his lousy campaign. I'm positive Bush is less popular than he was in 2000 and in reality probably lost that popular vote by close to a million or more. Kerry needs to start reaching out to WOMEN , a major voting block that some 20 percent didn't even bother to vote in 2000 and maybe scare some young men into believing a the draft will come back. Hey this is political war! Use everything you can!

I've sent money in to Kerry and I will send more, but not until he starts saying things I need to hear. Convincing me he can win this thing.

Skarbrowe

[kiahzero]

5. It'd be sweet

We could use that Republican outrage to get rid of the electoral college once and for all... while we're at it, maybe even institute Condorcet voting.

[pnorman]

6. I don't think I can find my reference at this late date,

but the very same possibility was raised by a reporter to someone high up the RNC, just a short while before the 2000 Election. His contemptuous snort then, was along the lines of: "Just let them TRY to steal the Election that way, in the face of the will of the people!"

I'm absolutely POSITIVE on that, and would be eternally grateful if someone here could provide a source/link to that (or suggest some keywords I could use in a Google-search).

pnorman

[Cat Atomic]

7. The Supreme Court would step in, without any legal basis, and

say, "we were wrong last time- it goes to Bush again".

:p

[KelleyKramer]

8. They had plans to fight Gore on that very issue

Don’t have the links handy, but pretty sure someone here at DU will post them.

In 2000 the Bush campaign thought that Gore would win the electoral and Bush would win the popular vote.

They even faxed out talking points to all the Repug house members, it included a pr campaign that Gore was not 'legitimate' and a lot of technical points on moving to a house vote against the electoral college.

A little known fact, but very ironic considering what happened right after election day November 2000.

[leetrisck]

25. You are so right and it is in the book

"Bush v. Gore" They had every intention of overthrowing the election if bush got the popular vote - they were going to say the electoral college was outdated - they intended bush to take office no matter what.

[7th_Sephiroth]

9. i'm keeping a close eye on jeb

f9/11 isint gonna go away, the 9/11 comission isint gonna go away, the plame comission isint gonna go away, the republican are either gonna run Mc Cain, no way will the DLC allow bush to run for a second term, his name is poison, but jeb (2008 contender) is the real danger, there are things he does, ya know, like the small town sherrif and judge who run the klan, everyone knows he has his hands in it, they just cant do anything to stop it

[Seabiscuit]

10. The question is absurd

...because it's the electoral college, as you know, which determines the Presidency, not the popular vote tally. Otherwise, Al Gore would unquestionably have been the President since January, 2001.

More importantly, remember and think about this (as I thought about it during Vietnam) during our time here:

"Show me the country where bombs had to fall,
Show me the ruins of buildings once so tall,
And I'll show you a young land with so many reasons why
There but for fortune, go you or go I -- you and I."

-- Joan Baez, "There But For Fortune".

[Fleshdancer]

11. Repubs screamed bloody murder at this hypothetical in 2000

Certainly I'm not the only one who remembers all the polls during the 2000 election. Most had Gore winning the electorate and Bush wining the popular.

[treepig]

28. i never did figure out the rationale behind that scenario

since the repubs have the built-in EC advantage of doing well in a disportionate number of the small states, which in turn are disportionately over-represented in the EC.

theoretically, by winning enough small states by 1 vote each, and not tallying any votes at all in the larger states, it's possible to be elected president with something like 21% of the votes cast nation-wide (i did the analysis before the 2000 election and the subsequent redistribution of EC votes amongst the states, but i doubt if this figure has changed much).

[Mike Niendorff]

12. impossible.

Bush will never win the popular vote.


MDN

[Matilda]

14. I have trouble figuring this one out.

I'd never heard of the electoral college until the Gore/Bush fiasco
in 2000, and I still haven't figured out why it's necessary.

Perhaps some kind soul could explain to me why it isn't just the
people's vote that elects the president.

[Seabiscuit]

15. Unforutnately, it's one of the stupidest parts..

of our Constitution. Take a read.

[Blue Wally]

27. Cosntitutional Basis

If you read the papers of the framers of the Constitution, you will see that the real intent was for the House of Representatives to elect the president on the basis of one state, one vote determined by the majority of the state congressional delegation. In other words, if a state has nine representatives, a five-to-four vote of those reps gives the state "vote" to that candidate. The lectoral college was viewed as more of a "nominating" process since the framers thought that the electors would vote for one of the state's "favorite sons" and then the House would decide among the candidates. Washington won going away and there was no house vote. I believe the next two elections (Adams and Jefferson) went to the House as did the election of John Quincy Adams. Since that time, national parties have prevailed over local state interests and the electoral college has been decisive.

[no_hypocrisy]

17. I can hear it now, "Keep counting! Keep counting!"

[Hubert Flottz]

18. RE:"Here's the most intriguing scenario."

Bush wins the election in another Supreme Court coup and The Democratic party takes back the House and the Senate by a landslide!

[TexasSissy]

19. I never did think that was that big an issue. Kennedy lost popular vote.

Our system is that whoever wins the electoral vote is who wins. Sometimes who wins that does not win the popular vote. It's interesting, it's disturbing, but it never was that big a deal for me that Gore won the popular vote but not the electoral vote.

Kennedy barely won the electoral vote, I believe. He lost the popular vote, I believe. And many believe Kennedy's dad rigged the election. So I've read that some believe that Bush beating Gore was payback for the Kennedy election.

The Repubs will make some hay out of winning popular vote but losing electoral vote, but I don't think they'll make much of it. And it doesn't matter much to most folks, anyway.

[TruthIsAll]

20. Kennedy won pop vote by 118,000

..

[TexasSissy]

24. Oh. Sorry. I stand corrected. Thought I'd heard that in a documentary.

[spooked]

21. How in the world could B*sh ever win Florida?!

He didn't win in 2000, and I can't imagine he's more likable or electable now! Plus, Kerry is a much better candidate than Gore!

[Skittles]

22. AS LONG AS IT'S NOT STOLEN

THEM'S THE F***ING RULES

[dusty64]

23. Bet there would finally

be reform of this system and the extreme court would say that votes DO count this time (5-4).

[GarySeven]

26. What makes you think there's going to be an election?

Bush will suspend elections sometime in October on the basis of some kind of "national emergency." Who will challenge him? NRA-ers and their huntin' rifles?

[kentuck]

29. What if Bush wins popular vote but Kerry "steals" electoral vote ?

Wouldn't that be a clsoer analogy to last election?