If Clark enters the race, Dean will lose support

[quinnox]

That is the conclusion I draw from two polls here on DU. I know the CW is Clark would hurt Kerry, but I disagree. Dean is running as the outsider insurgent candidate, this is exactly the niche Clark would fill as well. Clark is also an anti-war candidate, which further cuts into Dean's support. It will be interesting to see what happens to Dean's poll numbers if Clark does join the race.

[virtualobserver]

1. I'm a Dean supporter.....

but I agree.

I think that Clark might be Karl Rove's worst nightmare.

[phishhead]

2. It is possible.. but

It seems as if this is what you are hoping will happen, not fact-based opinion.

Just thought I'd point that out to you. That way, if you wanted to make a serious thread, you could try to hide the agenda you are pushing a little bit more sufficiently. :)

[Ohio Dem]

3. I have a feeling that all the candidates will lose some support if Clark

enters. Will it affect Dean more? Probably, but that's really just a guess on my part.

[caledesi]

5. I think you have it right, OD.

[unfrigginreal]

4. Happy Days are Here Again...right quinnox?

NOT, what a ridiculous assertion.

[Kahuna]

12. Aha! I knew you'd be here to harrass quinnox! See! It's not just me...

you don't like. You don't like anybody who doesn't think Dean is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

[Kahuna]

20. I just figured out what your problem with me and quinnox is...

You see us as Clark ringleaders who convert Deanies and other supporters to Clark. That's why you attacked me. I'm sorry but I hardly think that more than one or two people changed their support because of me.

In case you have forgotten, Clark has been on a media Blitz this summer. People see him and they are impressed. It has nothing to do with me.

I suppose it's my fault that Mike Moore praised Clark and suggested that if we want a winner...mmmm. I suppose it's my fault that Josh Marshall and Joe Conason wrote encouraging remarks about Clark about a month ago. I don't know any of these people. So don't get mad at me.

[Lefty48197]

6. Probably not a bad theory

I think the support of the Democratic voters will migrate toward Clark when/if he enters the race.

[dfong63]

27. i don't think so

Dean: I'm from the DEMOCRATIC wing of the Democratic party!
Clark: I haven't declared as a Democrat, yet.

why does Clark (or why do others) think that Clark can instantly win the loyalty of the party, when he steadfastly refuses to declare his own loyalty?

why do Clark supporters think he can be the first general since Ike to win the presidency with NO political experience? Clark is not in the same league as Ike. Ike saw the nation thru a world war that was tough enough that it could have gone either way. Clark won a minor regional skirmish in which he commanded overwhelming military superiority. it would have required stunning incompetence for Clark to lose.

[CMT]

7. don't see it

Dean is holding his own. He won your little poll from yesterday with about the same precentage as he had on the other "official" DU polls. Did you happen to see the percentages that Kerry and Kucinich and others had? not as good as they were in other polls. It makes me think 1) some people dislike Dean so much that if it looks like the poll is close that they will abandon their own candidate to support Clark. 2) That Kerry supporters will be more drawn to Clark (since in the previous polls Kerry was second ) becuz of Clark's military background countering Kerry's. or 3) As others have stated that Draft Clark people are coming on DU to participate in the polls--which is fine, that's how many candidates win straw polls by bussing people in and stacking it in their favor. That is politics.

[quinnox]

13. "your little poll"

I can't start polls at DU, I'm not a paying member.

[CMT]

14. I meant it is not an official DU poll

sponsored by the site. But other than that you Clark people did a good job organizing it. Congratulations.

[quinnox]

16. I'm not a Clark person

I had nothing to do with any polls being started. I support John Kerry as my first choice.

[CMT]

21. oh ok

good luck in the primaries. JK is a good man.

[salin]

25. From this post and those on the two polls, it just sounds like you

enjoy tweaking Dean fans.

eh?

Nothing like stirring already existing contentions a little farther, I guess. Yippee?!?!?!

:eyes:

[mantis]

8. Like I said before.........

Dean + Military experience/credibility = Clark.

The two are so similar. I really can't see
how someone can support Dean and not Clark
if he enters.

[clar]

11. Try this

Clark has no domestic experience. I am at least as interested in domestic issues as I am in foreign policy. His positions, views and degrees are not experience. He has no political experience. This doesn't rule him out for me, just pointing out the obvious that you failed to see.

[mantis]

18. Well sure

But if he believes the same as Dean does
on domestic issues what difference does
it make...really?

[dean4america]

29. no, it doesn't

Dean has that intangible quality that Clark lacks. It's not that I don;t like Clark, in fact, I'd love to see him be the VP, but he most assuredly does not fire me up when he speaks, is kind of plain in his demeanor, and except for the fact that he is a highly decorated military official, has no executive experience on par with Dean. Once you've seen Dean speak, been in a crowd he's addressed, you know for CERTAIN that he's the one to beat Bush.

The belief that Clark will announce and, presto change-o, have Dean supporter flock to him en masse is absurd. The people at meetups for Dean are certainly also not going to engage in any mass exodus.
All candidates will probably lose a few supporters (Kerry, the most, as I am siding with the CW on this one).

However, if Clark for some reason does not announce (and, btw, he really needs to just answer the damn question about being a Democrat. if, for some reason, he came out as an Independent, it would f things up), I would wager that Dean and Kucinich will garner most of his early supporters, as well as some moving to Kerry.

[Blue-Jay]

9. You're probably correct.

I just wish he'd "show some sack", and either declare his candidacy or not. I have the highest respect for General Clark, and I'd be thrilled if he were the Democratic nominee, but it's time for him to shit or get off the pot. Why does he keep dancing around the big question? Will he run or not?

[Julien Sorel]

10. Why should he declare?

He gets all this free buzz from people waiting on his decision. It's a build up money can't buy, and in the meantime, he is tearing it up on the TV screen. He's in a win-win situation, and only a dummy would throw that away. He'll declare when it's time to do so. Hopefully, that time will come soon.

[Blue-Jay]

15. Why should he declare?

Because I can't stand the suspense any more, that's why. Isn't that enough? :)

[dfong63]

28. Clark should sh*t or get off the pot

he should declare because his indecision is hurting the party. he's drawing support away from the real candidates. if he's not running, he should say so and release his supporters. if he is running, then he should get out there and start campaigning. if he believes the other candidates aren't providing good enough leadership, then the sooner he demonstrates his own skills in that area, the better it'll be FOR THE PARTY.

oh, but wait. this is the guy who won't even give a straight answer to the party question. silly me, why would i think Clark gives a damn about the good of the party?

[alaskagirl]

17. You're right... hopefully he will announce soon ;o)

Newbie Alert here.. Sorry if my post gets zapped into the ozone or something.

I agree Lefty.. The support for the General is overwhelming when you consider the fact that he's not (yet) a candidate. If you read the letters of support at one of the main Draft sites, they had received more than 30,000 letters two weeks ago- and who knows what the tally is now? --- simply incredible!!!

His appearance yesterday, and again tonight-- are giving those of us who are supporting him a great deal of momentum.

Aside from that though... very kewl website here guyz.. ;)

Regardless of who the members here support, it's pretty evident that when it's all said and done, we all have the ultimate =SAME= goal in mind... a one-way ticket for the Resident, DC to Crawford.

[phishhead]

22. Welcome to DU!

:)

[newyawker99]

32. Hi alaskagirl!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[joefree1]

19. And Aunold will be the next Governor of California

Maybe not. Bustamante is polling higher. Everytime I start to underestimate Democrats I get plesantly surprised. Perhaps we Democrats won't take to Clark's insincere flirting with our party.

Give me a true Democrat anyday. Dean, Kerry, or one of the rest. I'm not tempted by Clark.




http://stoptherecall.com

[ima_sinnic]

23. I don't think so

I'm a Dean supporter but not "blindly loyal"--ie, I will switch if it's warranted. But I don't see Clark as the second coming. Many people have invested money in Dean, they're not going to drop him that easily, for one thing. Many also don't trust the idea of the military being the President. Military = conformist thinking, many believe. Never mind the Eisenhower analogy, it's no longer 1952; times are different and "military industrial complex" really has taken on a sinister reality. We've seen BushCo strutting around in military regalia and it's not a comforting sight. Clark has had no experience as a legislator or government administrator. He'd be a good Secy of State or Defense--but President? Plus more and more he seems like a waffler. He can't just be on talk shows and then expect automatically to get the nomination! I mean, a lot of people express good ideas on talk shows. I want him to come to my town and tell me why I should vote for him over anybody else. I prefer people who stick their necks out rather than waiting until it's "safe" and then committing. Dean has impressed me all along with being *courageous* in that way, being outspoken and thereby sometimes risking political annhilation. Dean hasn't waited for someone else to pave the way--HE has paved the way for others, including noncandidates. I am NOT flaming Clark. I will respectfully consider him IF he formally announces his candidacy. Just pointing out some points of view that need to be taken into consideration.

[Kanola]

24. These DU polls mean nothing

And the big question is "IF" Clark runs. He has not decided yet, and I get the impression that he could go either way.

[niceypoo]

26. So what

Ill take either. May the best man win

[w4rma]

30. "doesn’t eat into Dean’s lead…Dean is the only one who could hold his own"

…
Under the Clinton scenario, Kerry would fall into the second tier of Democratic hopefuls, favored by just 16 percent of voters. All the other Democratic candidates would be relegated to the single digits.

Dean’s support among independent- and reform-minded voters seems intact with or without Clinton in the race while Kerry would find his base of support among traditional Democratic voters threatened, according to Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

"If Hillary Clinton suddenly expressed some interest in the race, the biggest potential loser is Kerry," Myers told the Herald. "She doesn’t eat into Dean’s lead at all ... As of today, Dean is the only one who could hold his own (against Clinton)."
…
http://www4.fosters.com/News2003/July2003/July_28/News/reg_pol_0728a.asp

A new Prez Preferece poll
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=190456

Clark V Dean
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=196331

[TheEarthIsFlat]

31. Don't know how

you come to that conclusion. At this moment, the poll that included all the declared candidates, plus Clark, Dean has 40% to Clark's 33%. In the poll with only Dean and Clark, it's 50/50. Seems as if, limited to only the two candidates, about 1/3 of the other candidates' supporters move to Dean, while about 2/3 move to Clark. Hard to see how that can justify your observation that Clark causes Dean to lose support.

[CWebster]

33. It is obvious that those polls are "freeped"

by an onslaught of new Clark forces.

[western mass]

34. clark just angling for VP

This late in the game, I don't think Clark is thinking seriously about the candidacy. He seems to be seriously positioning himself to be a VP choice for whoever wins...everything else is just show.