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Howard Dean has ran an excellent campaign to this date. Dean has raised a lot of money, organized an ocean of supporters, and pulled very effective media stunts which not only improved his name recognition, but placed him in the news cycle repeatedly. However, his success has many Democrats worried. Why?
The angst can only come from his campaigning style or his issues.
On this issues, Dean is close to many other candidates. Dean is perceived as vulnerable on terrorism, taxes, and gays. In addition, trash talk by the DLC and Rove has many caught of guard. Many were not satisfied with Dean's campaign appearance, particularly in interviews, and wonder if one of his random shoot-from-the-hip comments will sink him in the general election, if not sooner.
While this many be an adequate explanation, I am not certain such opinions are justified. The Republican leadership encouraged their base to switch and vote in the Democratic California primary in 1998 for Gray Davis, and it backfired on them bigtime. In addition, the DLC has never won a presidential election. Bill Clinton did. Meanwhile, under their leadership, we've lost both chambers of Congress, including the embarrassing 2002 election cycle where we were projected to pick up seats. Mindless reacting is never a substitute for cool thinking.
Dean has been improving very quickly on the interviewing circuit. Going on Russert early looks like a plus for him, since Dean now looks as good, if not better, than the rest of the candidates in this realm. In addition, Dean's "blunders" on the campaign trail are trivial. Dean made an awkward comment once to the NAACP about "his people," and two comments about Hussein which look weird when taken out of context. Any of the candidates can be attacked in this manner; how they respond to the attacks is where the money is, and Dean always hits back quickly and hard.
On the issues, the GOP will attempt to paint Dean as the candidate of terrorism, queers, and taxes. The taxes aren't a serious issue. One, the majority of the public is with us and not them if we believe the polling data. Secondly, Dean has a record of cutting taxes fairly and responsibly, in addition to balancing budgets during recessions, so Dean will have a big stick to beat Bush over the head with. Civil Unions, in contrast, can be used as an effective device to motivate Christian conservatives without actually delivering them any policy meat, e.g. abortion or vouchers. This may make Bush look xenophobic and hardedged nationally, especially when it is contrasted to the basic value of fairness, which Dean is very effective at expounding. (I'm sure everyone has heard the D-Day soldier story by now). Taxes and Gays are not going to win the election for a Bush with a sluggish economy and a Mess'o' -patamia.
Many Greens don't like Dean on the issues, but if one isn't going to vote for someone who opposes the gestapo parts of the Patriot Act, the Iraq war, and the Bush tax cuts, I'm not sure what else can be done to appeal to this crowd.
The other issue concern with Dean is the defense issue. He positioned himself as antiwar in contrast to the other candidates. The idea is that a majority support the war in Iraq, Dean doesn't, ergo Dean loses. However, Dean not only attacks Bush by getting specific on the Iraq lies, he aggressively challenges Bush on his entire foreign policy reign of error -- North Korea, Afghanistan, homeland security, and other issues. Other candidates seem awfully shy about sticking their neck out on defense, repeatedly taking a nuanced or sometimes a blatantly militarist stance. Dean is doing what other candidates refuse to do -- lower Bush's credibility on defense.
While I thus understand why many are gittery about Dean, I am not convinced such concerns are well founded. While the drawbacks to Dean seem to be small, the advantages are huge. On the issues, Dean's M.D. gives him credibility on health care, his opposition to the war enables him to play offense on defense, he has a record of cutting taxes and balancing budgets which is a massive advantage over Bush on the economy, and he has enough centrist appeal (his 'A' rating from the NRA for instance) to do well in the general election. Many continue to say Dean comes across as a 'real person', and bringing a tidal wave of grassroots supporters to the polls in November is a plus for Democrats everywhere.
Dean is a winner. B-)
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