Vilsack: Edwards Could Turn Iowa Caucus Into Four-Way Race

[Bombtrack]

http://www.nbc17.com/politics/2419000/detail.html
N.C. Senator's College Payment Plan Could Appeal To Voters

POSTED: 10:51 a.m. EDT August 20, 2003

INDIANAPOLIS -- Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack said his state's Democratic presidential caucus is a three-way race among John Kerry, Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean. But he hasn't completely counted out John Edwards yet.

Vilsack said Edwards could catch on in coming weeks with new commercials airing in the state and a unique message that could appeal to Iowa voters.

The North Carolina senator is the only candidate with a comprehensive plan to help parents pay for college, Vilsack said. And while the other three talk about overhauling the nation's health care system, Edwards talks about steps like addressing the nursing shortage.
.........
http://www.nbc17.com/politics/2419000/detail.html

[tjdee]

1. And an Iowa former state chair is for Edwards too.

I'm not going to say dark horse again....woops, just did.

[StopTheMorans]

2. "hasn't completely counted out John Edwards yet"

"Vilsack said Edwards could catch on in coming weeks"

Well, I'm still waiting, this "catching on" thing is getting kind of shaky. If his ads don't have the effect he wants, he won't get the nomination. That simple. The guy has to be polling way better than he is now. I read this article on my lunch break in the Boston Globe, the only impression it left me with was that one guy in Iowa hasn't completely discounted Edwards. Not exactly a strong vote of confidence if you ask me:)

[tjdee]

5. You mean, the GOVERNOR?

The governor isn't just one guy, LOL, he should know who can win in Iowa...as, he won in his state not too long ago.

Also, undecided beats any candidate in any race. Those people are going to vote, but they're not committed. Edwards (and the other candidates) knows this.

Edwards' numbers have to rise, but it is documented that his focus in the first half of the year was to raise money. His plan (and Kerry's too, at least) is to wait until the fall when people are actually paying attention to really kick it up.

They are afraid of peaking too soon.

[Bombtrack]

6. He is polling well, just not particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire

he doesn't need to win or even come in second in either of those, but other candidates do

he's rising fast in SC(where he's at 10 percent up from 5 percent), in AZ(where he comes in tied for second with Kerry in most polls, soon to be first as Leibermans numbers fall, I saw a poll with him virtually tied for first with Leiberman in OK, and I believe he's doing well in New Mexico as well, despite not even really campaiging hard there.

Feb 3 is his day, because he doesn't have to dominate in NH and IO

[tjdee]

11. Can you PLEASE link to those polls, if you can?

We never talk about those polls at DU--the only polls I ever see are NH and Iowa polls as if those are the two states that nominate someone and not the entire 50.

[Bombtrack]

3. Vilsack on Dean, and on a possible enorsement for someone

Dean, the former governor of Vermont, built loyalty in Iowa because he spent so much time there early in the race. But he must prove that he can broaden his appeal beyond anti-war activists and Internet users to win over moderates and independents, Vilsack said.

"I think the threshold question for him nationally is, can he be competitive against Bush?" Vilsack said. "I'm not sure that all the powers that be believe that."

Vilsack said he may make an endorsement before Iowa's Jan. 19 caucus. He said he'll be looking for someone who has a good chance to beat Bush, shows "passion and fire," and has a strong staff.

[sfecap]

4. College Payment Plan?

That's a huge issue?

[tjdee]

7. Do you have a kid?

It's not as big as foreign affairs, etc., but it's something that affects many people in the country every year.

The cost of college is a major problem for a lot of inner city parents, middle class parents, etc. My kid isn't anywhere near high school but I'm already thinking about it.

[AP]

12. The more education you have, the more likely you vote Dem

It's a big issue if you want America to have a democratic future.

[Bombtrack]

9. are you being sarcastic?

It's one of the biggest issues there is. Wether or not a kid who doesn't come from money, out of highschool, decides to go to college or which college, affects his or her life more than almost anything else.

Edwards had to transfer out of Clemson because he couldn't afford the payments and into NC state, all while working. He knows how much this affects people in a personal way.

Even though his daughter goes to Princeton, he hasn't forgot about the kids who aren't as blessed as her

[Adjoran]

8. Iowa isn't a primary

The way it works is people have to go out for a couple of hours in the evening and sit through a meeting. At the end of the meeting they vote on the candidates.

You can't stop by on your way to work in the morning or on the way home at night or at lunch. There is no chance you'll have short lines at your precinct.

This isn't for the casual voter, it's a party caucus for activists and dedicated people who will come out on a very cold night and spend some time on politics. For that reason, it isn't TV commercials that win Iowa. They never have. ORGANIZATION wins Iowa. You need not only numbers of volunteers, but enthusiasm. They have to cajole their friends and neighbors to get out, when most of those folks probably would rather stay by the fire that night.

Gephardt has a long-standing following in Iowa and should win the caucus. If he doesn't, his campaign is in big trouble. Dean and Kerry have both built credible organizations there. Edwards is lagging well behind, no matter how good his commercials are.

One thing Edwards could and should do is make up his mind. He is putting off deciding whether to seek reelection to the Senate, depending on how his Presidential bid goes. By delaying, he is hurting the chances for any other Democrat (probably Erskine Bowles, but who knows) to set up a campaign with a chance to win in NC.

[tjdee]

10. Edwards doesn't need Iowa.

The Northerners do.

Edwards needs to show on Super Tuesday. And as Bombtrack pointed out, he's doing tolerably in those states. We just never hear about them at DU, everyone here is obsessed with NH and Iowa.

[Bombtrack]

14. Feb 3 isn't super tuesday

at least, it's not usually accepted as that

I beleive super tuesday is a month later, on march 2

it consists of CA, NY, TX, OH, GA, WA, MD, and all of non-NH new england

in between Feb 3(which also includes Delaware) and super tuesday is VA, TN, and MI(on 2/7-2/10) as well as WI on 2/17

[tjdee]

17. You're right, of course.....n/t

[CMT]

13. Add Clark to the mix

and it could be a five way race in Iowa. I agree that this thing isn't over yet. I do think that Vilsak like alot of other establishment democrats doesn't see that Dean already does appeal to more than anti-war democrats.

[Bombtrack]

15. Dean is an establishment democrat too, and a true politician at heart

Vilsack clearly is indicating his WELL GROUNDED and informed doubts that Dean would be even close to competative against Bush.

Some dems, like Edwards, have demonstrated that they care more about a strong, unconflicted, dem party and the defeat of Bush than there own personal political gain and ego.

Dean is just the opposite. And it's obvious to veteran "establishment" democrats like Vilsack

[CMT]

16. of course Bombtrack

Dean is an establishment democrat which makes it silly that other establishment democrats think he only appeals to anti-war people and computer geeks. Latest polls actually shows that Dean does best with people aged 50 and up and is leading (according to the well-respected Des Moines Register Poll)Gephardt among Union members in Iowa.

Sorry I disagree with you that Dean only cares about his "personal political gain and ego". If this were the case his showing in this race wouldn't be as high as it is. Dean has been as relentless as anyone in the race in his attacks on Bush--which is one reason he is doing as well as he has been doing.

I stand by what I said that the Iowa race is not over. I agree that Edwards could still come on and that Clark's entrance could make it a five-way race in the state. I just felt the need, based on meeting many Dean supporters at Meetups and according to various polls I've read that Dean already does appeal to more than anti-war Democrats.

[Bombtrack]

18. I was just pointing it out

because your charicterisation of Vilsack as "establishment" was clearly meant to diminish his opinion as naive or something.

how a candidate does in a democratic primary clearly does not reflect a parallel of how they would do in a general election, in percent of the vote, in demographics

and I haven't met one Dean activist who isn't anti-Iraq-war




well, I disagree that he has been anymore relentless on critisizing Bush than most of the candidates, but even if I gave that to you, it's also clear that he has also been more relentless in attacking his fellow dem candidates than anyone

which means what he does more than anyone is attack, and complain, period. and dems who do that aren't largely successful. Democrats need to say what policies they dislike, and it turn what policies and ideas they should implement, instead to meet the goals of the common electorate.

[stickdog]

20. I haven't met an intelligent human being who isn't anti-Iraq-war. (NT)

[stickdog]

19. Dean does his best with independents, white males and voters over 50.

If that's not a winning combination for a Dem candidate who can also appeal to and excite the Dem's liberal base and activists, what is?

[terryg11]

21. Iowa and New Hampshire are not mandatory

while people are right that these two states won't win an election for anybody, showing well here can help farther down the road due to press coverage and all that.

[blm]

22. Edwards has quietly been doing his groundwork.

He's no dummy. Let the guy who wants to get all the attention of the media...then let the scrutiny catch up to him while you are doing your homework.