Theoretical question:

[tedoll78]

Branching from the "so-and-so" should drop-out thread. (To be clear, I think it's way too early for anyone to drop-out. The richness of ideas coming from each and every one of them is far too valuable.)

If Braun, Sharpton, Graham, Kucinich, Edwards, and Lieberman dropped, where would their supporters go?
Which of the remaining candidates (Kerry, Gephardt, Dean, and maybe Clark) benefit the most, and why?

[carpetbagger]

1. It would mostly reduce background noise.

One reason it's being suggested that some candidates drop out is that they don't have enough supporters to win. Most of those supporters will bolt no later than the first batches of primaries (say SC or so), so the votes will go elsewhere, anyway.

However, whether or not they drop out, here's where I would see them going... Braun and Sharpton's "hard" support would likely go only to each other. Their "soft" support will go elsewhere. I think they'll go to one of the southerners who stay in the race more than the others, but just like style's important with whites, it's important with blacks. Their white support will go to Dean.

Graham's support will go several ways, with Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman having the most to gain, Kerry a bit less.

If Graham doesn't take off, Gephardt could rake in Edwards voters.

Kucinich supporters go to Dean, except for the people who went to Kucinich because they have a gripe with Dean's stances, and those folks will probably go to Braun or Gephardt.

I think Lieberman's in it until super Tuesday, but if he tanks, his vote goes in several directions. I think Dean's squeezed it for what he can, so from here it goes to Kerry, Clark, and maybe Gephardt if he catches fire.