* Is At 55% In CBS Poll-I Have A Problem With Gallup

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

The CBS Poll confirms the Newsweek and Zogby Poll.

Only the Gallup Poll has * at 59%


Newsweek and Zogby have * around 53%


If anybody remembers Gallup was all over the place in the final weeks and days of the 00 election.

[VermontDem2004]

1. Who cares there just opinion polls

they mean absolutely nothing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. They Are Snapshots of What Americans Are Thinking

or as close as we can get to a snapshot of what people are thinking.

[VermontDem2004]

4. Ok, the CBS News Poll

only 930 adults were polled, that is barely a drop in the bucket compared to the entire adult population. Polls represent the opinions of 1,000 people not the entire adult population.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Those Polls Are Based On Inferential Statistics

the same as DNA.


By sampling 1,000 people with the proper controls I can infer what millions think....

[depakid]

10. And they do a piss poor job

of using random, multistage clustering, so their results are almost always skewed toward the conservative position, because of the locations where they draw their samples from.

Gallup is particularly bad about this, which is why their polls have consistently proven the least accurate on a national level.

[Cha]

15. I totallly agree!

:toast: Cheers!

[Cha]

14. The "polls" at the end of the 2000 campaign had bush "winning"

the popular vote and the freepers planned to make sure bush was the president if he lost the electoral college and won the popular vote.

Does anyone else remember this? :-(

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. A Couple Of Things

Polls have margins of errors and confidence levels.

Usually the confidence level is 95% . That means there is a 1 in 20 chance the results are erroneous.

And if the margin of error is three percentage points means that if * was leading Gore 45% to 42% he could actually be losing 45% to 42% or even winning 48% to 39%.

And in 00 the race was a razor close. Gore won the popular vote by less than one half percent. All pollsters will have problems in a race that close.

That being said

Gallup

Zogby

CBS News

The Harris Poll

The Washington Post

were all within 2% of predicting the winner.

The only polls that were way off were the Rasmussen and Battleground Polls. Those were the Freeper's favorite polls.

For more about inferential statistics, sampling, and polls go to

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/DailyNews/POLL_EXPLAINER.html

There are better sites but that's a start

[never cry wolf]

3. But in all but one, the numbers are dropping

drip, drip, drip

[alcuno]

5. This is a poll of adults, not likely voters.

I believe that Zogby and Newsweek polled likely voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Think Gallup and Newsweek Used

registered voters


Zogby uses likely voters*


and

CBS used adults


*there are many ways to define likely voters . The best way is to ask people if they know where they go to vote and ask them where cuz most folks want to look like their civic minded and say they are going to vote

[Dimsdale]

6. It never fails to amaze me..

that pollsters manage to locate so many idiots who think Chimpy is just wonderful. I thought it's Osama who is supposed to be living in a cave in Afghanistan.

[Ladyhawk]

8. :D

Thanks for making me smile. :)

[Dimsdale]

18. My pleasure. n/t

[searchingforlight]

11. You have to wonder how many of these polls are outsourced.

Who is checking the methodology.

[DemPopulist]

12. I think Gallup is full of it

I'm not sure when they changed their polling methodology but since at least 2000, their polls have been four or five points better for Bush than most other major polls. Then occasionally you'll see an "adjustment", where suddenly their numbers are in-line with everyone else's.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Read An Article By The Washington Post Pollster

during the latter days of the 00 race and he said Gallup doesn't control for party and even today the Dems still have a 3-8% lead in party ID

[TahitiNut]

13. If you'll look closely,

... you'll see that Gallup usually rates Commander Codpiece higher than the others.



Gallup is only exceeded by Fox (worst, of course), ABC, and CBS.

See http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/favorability.htm

[Cha]

16. commander A-Wol codpiece!

:toast:

[nwstrn]

20. I've always wondered . . . . .

Looking at the chart above--Who were the people who were smart enough to give Bush a thumbs down before 9/11 but suddenly thought he was doing a great job after the event? I know--polls aren't real, rally around the flag effect, media submission--but still . . . . Bush spent 9/11 hiding out on Air Force One; he lied about the plane being targeted by terrorists and his first speech to America following the event was atrocious. All those Gore voters/Democrats immediately ran to Bush's side? I guess Tom did give him a big hug.

[TacticalPeek]

22. Welcome to DU, nwstrn!

I think that's called the "mother hen" effect.

Its where, in time of danger, everybody clusters around the weak, incompetent leader, in order to protect us all in a crisis situation. You see where it wears off consistently.*


* (see also the results of the "little boy crying wolf" effect.)

[Cha]

25. I was one of the 10%er club! The 10% who didn't "flock to him"..

Hard to believe there weren't more!

There's more now!

I think they let it happen on purpose which I didn't think back then but at the very least they are the worst on National Security and they should be ousted for that Alone! :grr:


Welcome to DU! :kick:

[newyawker99]

27. Hi nwstrn!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[TacticalPeek]

21. Nice info, thanks.

Looks to me like a classic case of the double-knee-jerk reaction.

How fitting for the sitting, clueless double-jerk. .

Now, if only the 02 NOV 04 poll will put the knee where that jerk needs it.

[leftofthedial]

23. The truth is somewhere around 17%

the polls are a sham to keep us from an outright revolution.

[Gloria]

24. Today's Gallup is NOT the Gallup I worked for

25 years ago.....back when the founder still roamed the halls at Bank St. in Princeton....and Andy Kohut, who now heads Pew, alternated the Presidency of the company with Leonard Wood. Andy was the real star and he was GOOD!! I knew who was doing the sampling and he was meticulous. We still did in person interviews and there was the rolling omnibus survey. We asked questions on things like the Presidential candidates every night by phone, week after week.

The place was cream of the crop then. It had much more of an academic leaning at that time. We did lots of social surveys as well as Presidential polling. In fact, we really didn't do any other political polling except Presidential...old man Gallup had really "invented" it way back in the 30's I think. He was the fount.

After the old man died it was OK until finally his son, now happily sitting in Hopewell doing religious polling, sold it out to a company based in Nebraska or somewhere. There are only a couple of salespeople and staff in Princeton because of the prestige address. It's all done with phone banks and I'm sure the quality can't compare to when I was there, with a bunch of oldtimers who really were proud to be with Gallup.

[TacticalPeek]

26. I wouldn't be surprised if it was shopped out to the third world.

Like, what ain't?