Is Ohio in play?

[poskonig]

Why is Bush starting his campaign in Ohio this Labor Day? I heard Ohio lost a lost of jobs and was a narrow Bush win in 2000. What are our odds in 2004?

[RobertFrancisK]

1. Ohio is definatly in play

I live in Ohio and it is a very moderate state. It has two republican senators and a republican governor, but the senators are two of the most moderate in the senate (Voinavich and DeWine). The labor unions in Ohio are very energized and pissed off. Clinton won Ohio both times and Gore lost because he wrote it off early and didn't get out and campaign. If the Dem contender can get John Glenn out and campaigning for him, like Clinton did, then the Dems have a very good shot at picking it and it's 23 votes up. Bush's far right agenda won't bode well with the voters if it is completely brought to light. I know I myself will campaign my ass off to help deliver this state.

[southern democrat]

5. I may be wrong

But I don't believe a republican has ever been elected if they do not carry Ohio.

[shirlden]

2. Ohio is a Republican state, but

it has been my observation that the Republicans here are of the Paleo-conservative variety.. They are not pleased with this huge deficit and the lack of well thought out policys by Shrub. Many are getting nervous. If this continues, I expect to see some Repubs stay home on election day. This is not a big swing vote state, so Bush is here preaching to the choir, though why he did it in front of a Union, is beyond me. The Ohio union people are generally very Dem.
Time will tell.....it is early yet. And we have not yet begun to fight.

:think:

[AWD]

4. Bush won 50-47 in 2000

...he's going down in 2004. We will deliver it for the country.

[CMT]

3. I think it is a state that democrats should try for

It isn't a gimme like Illinois but it does have strong unions and big cities and a sizable minority population. It was close in 2000 and with work it could possibly be won.

[ButterflyBlood]

6. Bush only won the state 50-46.5

with Nader taking about 2.5%, that's a combined total of 50-49, and that's after Gore conceded the state a month before and quit campaigning and running ads there. it is very close and definatley in play, especially with the job loss and Bush's slashing of workers' benefits.

[spooky3]

7. I agree

I lived in Columbus for nearly 20 years; it is very conservative, as is Cincinnati, but Cleveland and other areas are not. But there are a lot of people out of work and the housing markets have not kept up with those in the rest of the country; economic problems may just be enough to shift the balance.

[RobertFrancisK]

10. Columbus is in transition

Some of the suburbs are very conservative, but it is a fast growing city so it is becoming more diverse. Gore won Franklin County in 2000. Mayor Coleman is a african american democrat, and he is very popular. I think he'll definatly win the governors office if he runs in 2006. Ohio's in play, and the dems just really need to work for it, all out.

[oasis]

8. A recent documentary featured the plight of a small Ohio town

whose out-of- work population had to rely on food distribution centers to get by. There were long food lines and sad personal stories of many who suddenly found themselves in Bush's rough economical environment.

Bush was not directly mentioned as the culprit, but one has only to connect the dots.

[JVS]

9. Ohioans, could Kucinich take Ohio?

Because if he can, I think he could win the country.

[eileen from OH]

11. Um, no

As others have noted, he's from NEOhio which is quite liberal. And even around here, he generates a huge "oh, there he goes again" kinda thing. As far as I know he does a great job for his district, etc., etc., But a lot of us who've watched the attention/camera grabbing, show-up-when-there's-something-to-protest routine for years are a lot less impressed than those outside of Ohio seem to be. There is no way he could carry Ohio and I'd be singularly surprised if he could even carry all of the Cleveland area.

eileen from NEOhio

[eileen from OH]

12. Can't give odds. . .

But I'd say Ohio was definitely in play. Ohio is very weird. NEOhio, i.e., Cleveland, Akron no prob, a liberal bastion. And don't even get me started about Youngstown (uh, heard of Jim Traficant, anyone?) It is the epitome of "rust belt" and has turned into a ghost town with the loss of steel. The south is conservative country, but also seems to be perversely independent. (Cincy DID elect - god help us - Mayor Jerry Springer.) Central Ohio is very rural so farm issues are important. The key to OH is jobs, jobs, jobs coupled with trade, trade, trade with a huge dose of schools, schools, schools.

eileen from NEOhio

[bluestateguy]

13. I call Ohio a Republican leaning swing state

Even in 1996, Bill Clinton only won it 47%-41%. Democrats hold no state offices, so they have few links to the machinery of the state's government. If a lot of jobs are lost, then yes, Ohio is in play, but otherwise you might want to divert those resources to Florida.

[ButterflyBlood]

15. with Jeb still around, Florida may be a lost cause

[Lady President]

14. Definitely in play

Ohio has the potential to be a major player in 2004. In fact, despite the opinion of those who think Kerry will drop out soon, he is sending someone to organize an Ohio office in the near future. There is a surprising amount of political talk here, considering how early in the race it is.

As other posters mentioned the state is divided. The north-east is traditionally very liberal. I'm not sure why, but friends and family of mine in that area, cringe when Kucinich is mentioned. I think that area is up for grabs for any of the Dem. candidates. The Cincinnati area is almost a lost cause because it is very conservative.

The real fighting ground may end up being Columbus. Despite what I just read, my hometown of Columbus is the 15th largest city in the country and is a primarily white-collar city. You have to go quite a distance from the metro area before you will see anything that resembles a rural area. There are many colleges and universities in the city and the students need to be mobilized, like Clinton/Mtv did with the old "Rock the Vote" campaign. I think it's going to be very exciting here.

[paulsbc]

16. I put our odds there at 50/50

toss up at this point, the key will be the next 10-12 months and how the employement numbers go. steady state or loss of jobs in that area and it is ours, IMO.

[jiacinto]

17. Here is the problem

Ohio's Democratic Party is in pathetic shape.

[John_H]

18. Big Time.

We pulled the plug on Ohio waaaayyyy too early in 2000. After absolutely no money going in for more than two months, we only lost it by 3. This time, with the rust belt hit especiall hard by chimpy's economy, and since Nader won't be a factor--we could easily win it.