Poor Minnesota has no Snow!

[Jack_Dawson]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/12/10/no.snow.ap/index.html

They must be really broken up over that.

:cry:

[latteromden]

1. We are! It's sad!

Okay, well, I'm not, really. But, uh. Some people are? :P

[Jack_Dawson]

2. Is it at least cold?

:shrug:

75 in San Diego today.

:beer:

[idiosyncratic]

20. It is nice today, isn't it? n/t

[dflprincess]

37. It's been in the 30's even 40 for several days

That's above 0. For December those temps are tropical. I still haven't pulled the ski jacket out of the closet yet.

It can stay like this all winter.

[Jack_Dawson]

58. 30s is Tropical?

C'mon be honest...It's not NORMALLY sub-zero in MN. Unless you're in International Falls, of course.

Is it colder than Lambeau Field?

[KitchenWitch]

77. Less damp than Lambeau

Unless you are on the North Shore of Lake Superior. It is probably about the same ambient temperature as Green Bay.

[barb162]

74. I'm in No. IL ans I feel the same way. We already had 2 snows

both gone now nd the less sliding I have to do the better. I already fell on my rear once on the deck as it was so icy

[barb162]

76. my cousin lives in International Falls though he rarely talks

about how cold it gets. I figure his mouth is frozen shut for a few months a year.

[Rick Myers]

3. It's pretty strange...

Not one snowfall of an inch in the Twin Cities and it's half way thru December...

Not that I'm complaining.

[markdd]

4. but but but there is no such thing as

Global Warming.

[Marxdem]

16. Its actually do to a eastern ridge over the CONUS

Has absolutely nothing to do with global warming.

Take a look at the computer models, read up on how weather patterns take place.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/


If you want to discuss this on Monday when the temps in MN should be below normal, I would happily eat my words if they arent.

[hatrack]

5. Last year was very similar, as I recall

And Wisconsin is trying to deal, as well. Lots of people used to go to upstate Wisconsin on weekends to ski or snowmobile or what have you. Sadly, the last 5-6 years have been very low-snow, so the winter tourism industry up there is seriously hurting.

[NicoleM]

6. I'm in Minnesota and

it snowed in my part of the state last night. I could go skiing. . .if I had skis.

[Jack_Dawson]

10. International Falls?

:shrug:

[NicoleM]

12. No.

Western MN, by Moorhead.

[CarbonDate]

7. I just need to drive through, they'll get a foot of snow....

...immediately. I've gotten stranded in Minnesota twice because of snow storms that went through while I was driving down I-90. The second one threw me in the ditch. It probably would have been more, but after the second time, I vowed never to drive through Minnesota during the winter again.

[eyepaddle]

9. Please do...

I remember when I was younger--like ten years ago and we had this thing called "winter." Aye, it was grand.

Ooooh yeah, and for the DU'er from San Diego--I don't hink it's cold at all. It's 33 outside, light jacket weather. When will I be able to go winter camping? (sigh...)

[wellstone dem]

69. We in Minnesota

thank you for not visiting.

[scarletwoman]

8. We don't get much snow anymore...

Definitely not like it was when I was a kid (50 some years ago).

In recent years we have had a few major snowfalls, but alot of the winter months have been relatively snowless. One or two major dumps of snow in a season does not a Minnesota winter make -- at least not like the winters used to be.

From the daily hassle standpoint, it's not so bad not having alot of snow -- less to shovel, less getting stuck, less cleaning off the roof. But long term it means diminished soil moisture, less winter kill of insect pests, more forest/grass fire danger, among other problems.

It also wreaks economic havoc in outstate Minnesota where alot of livelihoods depend on winter tourism, as well as businesses selling snowblowers, snowmobiles and such. (Not that I'm at all fond of snowmobiles...) Not to mention the snowplow operators, government and private, who aren't making any income.

And it's just plain unaesthetic. Bare trees and brown fields are rather depressing to look at for months at a time. A sparkling blanket of white makes the winter scenery SO much more beautiful!

sw

[Marxdem]

13. As a amature weather met I disagree

Snowfall totals over the past 50 years havent changed at all. Contrary to many peoples belief, Minn doesnt get that much snow compared to many place east of there. The 70's were the harshest winters in the eastern side of the U.S and the 50's and 60's were considered extremely mild. In fact the least snowiest winter in the Detroit region occured in the 1930s'


Its amazing how things get embelished over time. I must have at least 1 arguement with an old-timer a year over this. The only area of the U.S in snow draughts is in the SW U.S. The average world temp over the past 100 years has not risen a full degree yet and many scientists agree that 1 degree may be related to issolated urban heat islands.

[scarletwoman]

21. Um, did I say ANYTHING about comparing MN snowfall to other places?

I grew up in Minnesota, I'm now 55 years old, and in recent years there has certainly *seemed* to be less snow IN MINNESOTA in the winter than when I was younger.

I could be wrong, of course -- since my observations are based merely on actually living here.

sw

[dflprincess]

39. I think the big difference is that it's been warmer

so what snow we get melts off. Technicaly, we have had just over an inch in the metro (still a low number) but there is none on the ground. And, we seem to get the snow in one to three inch hits, no major dumpings.

On the other hand, I lived near Buffalo, NY when I was a kid... Minnesota never got snow the way we got it there.

And, remember the winter Arnie Carlson closed all the schools in the state because it was so cold? The actual temp in the cities was near -30 and with the windchill it was more like -50. Even colder up north.

I understand there is an El Nino affecting us this year.

[Marxdem]

44. heres the data

120 years of Twin Cities Monthly and Seasonal Snowfall Totals (inches)
1884 - 2004

Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season
Total
Downtown St. Paul
84-85 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 7.2 14.9 3.5 2.0 4.0 8.3 1.0 0.0 42.0
85-86 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 3.5 14.7 2.8 10.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 32.2
86-87 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.6 5.7 21.6 6.9 1.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 56.5
87-88 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 15.4 4.5 3.4 11.9 0.2 1.0 0.0 38.3
88-89 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.2 2.6 3.9 4.1 T 0.0 0.0 15.4
89-90 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 4.0 5.5 8.3 4.4 7.5 T 2.0 0.0 31.7
90-91 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.4 2.3 4.7 12.3 6.2 3.2 T 0.0 33.1

Downtown Minneapolis
91-92 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 5.8 0.6 7.2 7.3 T 3.0 0.0 32.7
92-93 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 6.3 11.4 17.8 7.1 13.0 T 0.0 59.1
93-94 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 12.4 12.0 0.3 11.2 5.8 0.0 0.0 49.9
94-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.8 2.7 9.0 3.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.2
95-96 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 0.6 5.2 2.2 8.6 7.4 0.0 0.0 27.0
96-97 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.8 4.2 13.6 10.3 16.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 53.4
97-98 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 1.5 0.6 9.6 12.7 2.1 0.0 0.0 31.3
98-99 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 14.1 1.5 8.0 15.2 23.6 T 0.0 0.0 62.4
99-00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 6.1 9.1 16.7 1.5 0.0 0.0 36.4
00-01 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 4.3 5.8 4.5 19.1 T 0.0 0.0 41.5
01-02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 7.2 5.3 4.4 1.5 0.8 T 0.0 22.4
02-03 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 24.0 4.2 2.6 4.1 1.5 T 0.0 38.8
03-04 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 8.3 8.5 13.2 5.8 7.8 0.0 0.0 46.1
04-05 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 7.4 13.1 9.3 1.0 T T 0.0 31.1
05-06 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 11.5 1.9 17.7 4.5 4.0 T 0.1 0.0 45.2
06-07 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 3.0 8.6 12.8 11.6 5.8 13.0 0.8 0.0 55.6
07-08 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.3 8.0 10.6 14.3 11.7 T 0.0 52.2
08-09 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.3 13.5 12.7 24.2 3.7 8.5 1.8 0.0 64.7
09-10 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 11.0 19.2 14.1 6.1 0.9 4.9 0.0 0.0 56.2
10-11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9 4.2 10.1 5.9 4.6 8.7 0.0 0.0 37.5
11-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 14.4 8.4 2.7 4.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 42.7
12-13 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.0 13.6 4.5 11.7 11.6 5.0 0.0 0.0 47.4
13-14 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.6 T 7.7 6.8 2.9 3.4 0.0 0.0 22.5
14-15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 8.4 16.4 6.4 14.3 0.0 2.0 0.0 47.9
15-16 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 5.1 7.6 23.9 7.3 5.6 1.2 T 0.0 50.7
16-17 0.0 0.0 T 4.3 0.1 13.6 28.8 7.7 29.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 84.9
17-18 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.9 6.2 5.3 4.9 11.2 T 0.0 0.0 30.8
18-19 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.5 4.8 4.6 11.8 1.5 2.2 0.0 0.0 25.4
19-20 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 11.0 8.0 18.5 5.0 14.3 5.5 0.0 0.0 64.9
20-21 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.1 9.4 3.4 5.6 1.0 0.1 T 0.0 20.6
21-22 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.6 3.2 7.0 13.6 1.4 1.5 0.0 0.0 43.3
22-23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.7 11.8 4.2 11.8 11.0 0.5 0.0 42.2
23-24 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 2.7 7.7 5.5 12.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 32.4
24-25 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 10.0 5.4 4.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 23.2
25-26 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.6 3.2 7.9 5.5 10.7 2.8 0.0 0.0 37.0
26-27 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9 12.3 5.5 2.1 4.1 1.1 T 0.0 30.1
27-28 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 5.3 22.8 3.2 3.2 5.7 16.9 0.0 0.0 57.1
28-29 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 T 3.6 18.3 11.7 4.4 9.2 0.2 0.0 47.4
29-30 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.7 5.3 11.0 4.8 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.5
30-31 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.7 0.7 0.9 7.0 0.4 T T 0.0 14.2
31-32 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.5 18.7 8.1 13.4 2.2 0.0 0.0 46.6
32-33 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.8 13.7 4.1 8.9 4.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 34.7
33-34 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.7 5.1 6.1 2.1 5.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 25.6
34-35 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.5 13.0 14.8 0.8 4.6 6.9 3.0 0.0 51.6
35-36 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 2.6 8.3 9.1 19.7 16.5 2.6 0.0 0.0 58.8
36-37 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 11.2 12.2 7.6 8.2 3.6 0.0 0.0 44.6
37-38 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.2 5.4 9.3 7.4 6.2 T T 0.0 29.5

Twin Cities International Airport
38-39 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.5 9.1 7.4 11.9 6.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 41.6
39-40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 T 4.8 5.0 9.1 25.6 T T 0.0 45.1
40-41 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.3 10.6 3.3 5.5 6.8 T 0.0 0.0 52.5
41-42 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 3.8 8.6 1.7 5.2 4.6 T 0.0 0.0 23.9
42-43 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.3 0.9 7.0 10.1 4.6 9.8 T T 0.0 34.4
43-44 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 10.3 T 1.0 4.2 11.1 0.3 T 0.0 26.9
44-45 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 1.1 8.2 15.4 0.7 6.0 T 0.0 33.9
45-46 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 4.5 14.6 4.3 11.9 1.5 0.1 3.0 0.0 39.9
46-47 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.1 5.9 7.6 1.9 3.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 25.0
47-48 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.8 6.7 3.5 11.6 5.2 0.3 T 0.0 49.1
48-49 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 2.5 2.3 12.5 3.4 8.3 9.3 0.0 0.0 38.3
49-50 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 2.7 6.5 17.0 7.9 11.1 6.4 0.0 0.0 51.6
50-51 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 25.0 7.1 8.6 40.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 88.9
51-52 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 10.8 16.5 9.9 15.0 25.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 79.0
52-53 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1 6.0 6.0 13.4 6.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 42.9
53-54 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 5.9 3.6 1.0 10.7 0.2 2.4 0.0 25.7
54-55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 6.4 4.0 7.8 11.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.9
55-56 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 6.0 14.6 4.6 2.4 14.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 45.2
56-57 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 2.1 4.9 8.7 7.0 9.6 0.0 0.0 39.1
57-58 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 2.2 2.4 1.2 3.5 1.6 0.0 0.0 21.2
58-59 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 2.4 1.4 6.3 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.1
59-60 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 6.9 3.5 9.5 2.7 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.8
60-61 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.7 4.6 8.7 15.1 7.7 0.0 0.0 40.2
61-62 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5 18.1 5.9 26.5 21.8 6.4 0.0 0.0 81.3
62-63 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 3.2 5.0 5.4 9.8 5.5 0.0 0.0 34.5
63-64 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 5.0 1.0 9.7 5.6 0.0 0.0 28.9
64-65 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 8.1 10.5 11.7 37.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 73.7
65-66 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.2 11.9 6.8 14.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 36.1
66-67 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.4 12.7 35.3 23.7 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 78.4
67-68 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 10.6 2.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 17.5
68-69 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 28.7 21.6 5.3 7.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 68.1
69-70 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 3.8 33.2 9.8 4.3 8.6 1.3 0.0 0.0 63.4
70-71 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 5.5 19.9 13.9 7.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 54.7
71-72 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.4 12.8 12.2 7.6 10.4 8.0 0.0 0.0 64.4
72-73 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 15.3 11.6 11.3 0.4 2.0 0.0 0.0 41.7
73-74 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.9 2.5 15.7 7.7 7.3 0.0 0.0 51.2
74-75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 6.1 27.4 9.0 18.3 2.2 0.0 0.0 64.2
75-76 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.2 5.6 12.8 5.1 13.6 0.0 1.2 0.0 54.5
76-77 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 1.4 8.3 13.4 1.8 14.6 1.8 0.0 0.0 43.6
77-78 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 11.7 14.2 6.8 4.6 8.5 1.9 0.0 0.0 50.7
78-79 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.5 15.1 14.2 13.5 8.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 68.4
79-80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 1.7 12.9 8.8 13.7 8.5 0.0 0.0 53.3
80-81 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.8 4.6 11.0 0.1 1.7 0.0 0.0 21.1
81-82 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 14.0 10.6 46.4 7.4 10.9 4.8 0.0 0.0 95.0
82-83 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 3.6 19.3 3.2 10.8 14.3 21.8 0.0 0.0 74.4
83-84 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.4 21.0 10.6 9.3 17.3 9.8 0.0 0.0 98.4
84-85 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 16.3 13.1 4.2 36.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.7
85-86 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 23.9 13.5 10.3 12.3 8.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 69.5
86-87 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.2 5.5 1.2 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.4
87-88 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.5 7.5 19.5 4.5 3.7 2.4 0.0 0.0 42.4
88-89 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.8 7.2 6.0 17.3 22.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 70.1
89-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 7.0 1.1 10.7 3.2 2.2 0.0 0.0 35.5
90-91 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 11.7 6.5 14.2 4.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 43.6
91-92 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 46.9 6.7 5.0 5.9 10.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 84.1
92-93 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 12.2 9.2 12.0 5.3 6.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 47.4
93-94 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 4.5 24.3 12.0 1.7 5.5 0.0 0.0 55.7
94-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 6.5 4.2 2.1 10.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 29.6
95-96 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.6 16.1 14.5 1.2 14.1 2.3 T 0.0 55.5
96-97 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 15.3 23.7 14.2 4.0 14.3 0.6 T 0.0 72.1
97-98 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.6 3.3 20.4 1.1 11.6 T T 0.0 45.0
98-99 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.1 33.1 4.2 16.0 T 0.0 0.0 56.5
99-00 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.7 7.3 18.2 7.7 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 36.2

Chanhassen
00-01 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 9.8 30.2 9.4 16.5 8.6 1.3 T 0.0 75.8
01-02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.4 8.0 9.5 3.1 15.7 20.2 0.0 0.0 66.0
02-03 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.1 10.7 13.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 31.7
03-04 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 9.4 16.1 10.7 19.7 10.4 T 0.0 0.0 66.3

Average 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.3 8.8 10.1 7.8 9.4 3.6 0.2 0.0 45.9
(120 years)


If anyone wants to see the graph that shows a constant temp over the same duration, just ask....I'll provide that too.

[eyepaddle]

53. Well, I'm on my way to a friend's place, but

Looking at your data I have a few issues I'd like to broach. I'll crunch the numbers tommorrow, BUT looking at snowfall over the last thirty years or so it is quite clear that there have been many years with more than 48 inches of snow--some years more than ninety! So your smug insistence that a poster was unlikely to have ever seen three or four feet of snow is quite plainly rubbish.

A fairly minor point, except it shows your lack of manners, and more importantly either an unfamiliarity with statistical methods or possibly dishonesty--willfully glossing over data with the intent to aggravate.

If you really wanna put me in my place, check out the standard deviation of the snow averages and see which confidence interval the recent trend fits into, ergo is it probable that these fluctuations are signifigant or are random noise. I can get to that--but it won't be for a few days.

Oh yeah, you said the Earth has warmed 0.5-1.0 degrees, I read that graph and come up with approx 1.5 degrees. Thats a fifty percent error (at least) rather important for a systme the sze of the Earth's climate. Next, you said you were within the margin of error--how did you calculate your margin of error?

Y'see climatology isn't my field of expertise, but you need to examine and evaluate the evidence put forward by others who expertise it is. So far the (Overwhelming) majority of the climate research field has stated that: 1, the Earth is warming substantially, and 2, we are causing it.

[Marxdem]

54. I'm actually growing bored of this

BUT looking at snowfall over the last thirty years or so it is quite clear that there have been many years with more than 48 inches of snow--some years more than ninety! So your smug insistence that a poster was unlikely to have ever seen three or four feet of snow is quite plainly rubbish

The maximum snow depth ever recorded in Minneapolis was 38 inches in Jan of 1982. Snow compacts and evaporates, common knowledge in meteorology. I guess the poster may have seen it once


So far the (Overwhelming) majority of the climate research field has stated that: 1, the Earth is warming substantially, and 2, we are causing it.

This has been shown indisputably by my figures to have NO impact on winter in Minnesota over the last 50 to 100 years.


http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/snowvar.htm

I'm done here.

[eyepaddle]

73. You really are a disagreable little fellow aren't you?

I notice you never really address the points I bring up, but manage to write with an astonishingly casual disregard for rigorous scientific analysis.

I'm trying to help you "turn pro" but you refuse to listen. Just throwing out a table of snowfall totals "proves" nothing--let alone indisputably. All of your UMN climate links aren't working, so I can't comment on those. What I'm saying is that you can't just eyeball some numbers say "yeah, that looks about right." then dust off your hands and walk away.

I'm not saying your data absolutley contradict your positions--just that you haven't finished the assignment yet. I even offered some suggestions for what would really put me in my place. I'm going to offer more; I've got a strong feeling you're going to ignore this, but I'm gonna say it anyway.

I would think seeing a graph of snowfall totals (not a year to year bar graph) but frequency plot, just to confirm that this is a normal distribution--you know, the classic "bell curve." Look at that graph; is it fairly flat or does it show peaks of modality? Then I'd like to see how the mean changes with time--what is the trend for the average? And then finally % minimum and maximum exceedance, at the usual 5 and ninety-five percent points, this will tell you how many of your snowfall totals fall in the "tails" of the graph. If it's a flat graph it'll be a bunch and won't really signify anything special, if it is a more modal or peaked graph then it will mean very high and very low totals are quite unusual, but still possibly random, if skewed high or low (more at one end than the other) that your average is in fact changing.

I don't know what this sort of analysis will say yet, but I don't think you do either--run the numbers and see what's happening.

The fun part of science is when you get below the surface and really start finding out exactly how much you were missing.

After that we can start exploring the difference between "proving" what climatic patterns have to do with day to day individual weather forecasts, and the more statistical approach to climate change.

In closing, I'm not really concerned with whether or not we agree on topics, but that you lay off the blunt assertions. That's what separates the Amateurs from the Pro's.

[KitchenWitch]

41. Tastes great - Less snow debate

I have lived in MN (Twin Cities area) since the late 1960s and I would swear that up until the mid 1980s, we would get at least 3-4 storms where at least a foot of snow would fall (at least 48" a year). The last 15 years or so, we have maybe had a total of 12 storms that dumped that much snow.

In the same period of time, we have had at least 10 ice storms that nearly brought our area to its knees.

[NickB79]

23. Urban heat islands skewing temp records has been addressed

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4021197.stm

"The average world temp over the past 100 years has not risen a full degree yet". How do you reconcile this with the fact that the average temperature in the Arctic has risen SEVERAL degrees F in the past century? Most models show that the lower latitude regions of the planet won't start to see increases in temps until global warming is well underway, and those models appear to be borne out with recent observations.

And speaking as a native MN'er, here are my observations on what has happened with MN snowfall over the past decade or so. We are getting snow later and later in the year. We get a few massive dumps of wet snow, mainly in Feb and March, that then melts off quite a bit more rapidly than in years past. The overall amount of snow we are getting has not changed, but the distribution of snowfall, and the duration of snowcover, has changed dramatically. Since my hobby is gardening, I can't tell you how many trees, shrubs and perennials I've lost over the past few years due to no insulating snowcover. Without it, the ground freezes more rapidly, to a greater depth, and earlier in the year. Farmers around the state have been losing a lot of alfalfa over the past few years that normally would have survived quite well if there was the usual inch of snow in Nov.

[hatrack]

24. Also this from Nature

"A major argument used by sceptics of global warming is flawed, a UK Met Office study in Nature magazine says. This argument maintains that much recorded climate data is inherently unreliable because of where weather instruments are situated.

Most are in or near cities, which produce their own heat; so the rapid warming measured over the last century could be just a record of urbanisation. The Met Office believes its study shows this "urban heat island" idea is wrong.

The analysis has been done by Dr David Parker. He used data for the last 50 years to create two separate graphs. One plots temperatures observed on calm nights, the other on windy nights. If the urban heat island hypothesis is correct, he says, instruments should have recorded a bigger temperature rise for calm nights than for windy ones - because wind blows excess heat away from cities and away from the measuring instruments. But there is no difference between the curves. "It helps to answer the critics," Dr Parker told BBC News.

"There are other kinds of temperature measurements, too, which could not be influenced by urbanisation, such as warming in the oceans. "Different methods of measurement can produce different rates of warming but they all point upwards." Myles Allen, from the atmospheric physics department at Oxford University, agrees: "It's pretty convincing," he said. "It's a sensible analysis which tests a prediction of the sceptical theory; and if it's right, we should see a greater effect on calm nights. "But you should never overestimate the ingenuity of the sceptics to come up with a counter-argument."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=16844

[scarletwoman]

27. Thank you!

"...the distribution of snowfall, and the duration of snowcover, has changed dramatically."

That's for sure! As I said in my first post, we go months with virtually no snow, then get a big dump. And you're right, that "big dump" generally melts away pretty quickly. Winter IS different than it used to be.

I guess I'm going to have to do a search on yearly snowfall totals for the last 50 years -- I've really got to know now!

sw

[Marxdem]

48. No problem

http://www.climate.umn.edu/text/historical/mspsnow.txt

there you go.

[DrWeird]

31. Well, he did say he was an amateur.

:eyes:

[Marxdem]

33. Facts speak louder then words.

Prove to me how much the earths temp has risen.

Listen, I am 100% for cleaning up the earth. I have recently been looking into getting a Toyota prius and totally support green causes. I just can't let these errors persist when I know better.

[DrWeird]

40. Indeed they do.

The mean change termperature has been 0.5-1 degrees farenheit over the past 100 years.

"I just can't let these errors persist when I know better."

You seem content to leave your error about the heat-island thing persist.

[Marxdem]

43. Did I or did I not say around 1 degree?

Sorry, I was off by .2 degrees....still within margin of error.

[DrWeird]

45. You did not.

You claimed the idea was false. Pretty intellectually dishonest of you.

[Marxdem]

47. I said the Earths temp has risen 1 degree

I also asked for proof on the global temp change.... I was shown that my 1 degree approx was close.

[DrWeird]

49. No, what you said was...

Some people say that the Earth has risen one degree but many scientists dispute that, it's really just that their measurements are wrong.

Looks to me like it was a pretty sorry attempt to lend credence to the Limbaughesque "global warming is just a myth" bullshit.

[Marxdem]

50. Most temps are recorded in urban heat islands, no myth

I do believe the earth has risen 1 degree in the past 100 years. I also believe we need to find new sources of energy and drive more environmentally friendly vehicles.


This 1 degree change has had no affect on snow in the north central united states. I'm merely pointing out that seasonal snowfall has been fairly consistent over the past 100 years. I find this notion of "backyard meteorology" extremely annoying. I'm very interested in weather and this is something I take to heart.

I do not listen to Limbaugh and I wouldn't doubt he has a ridiculous opinion either.

[goodhue]

26. I've lived here since 1970

And there is no doubt that the last 5-10 years have had many less white christmases than in the past. Used to be a white x-mas was the norm and of late it is the exception. Used to be able to x-country ski the north shore in Dec no problem, these days folks better bring hiking boots. It's not a matter of less precipitation -- its simply warmer in November and December.

Minnesota is not alone of course in experiencing such dramatic change as a visit to many glacier lodge in glacier national park would reveal--better get there soon while there still are glaciers, which are receding fast.

It will be rainy in Minneapolis tomorrow.

[eyepaddle]

28. Yeah, also

check with the owners of local ski hills. Check the records for which day was their firs day of operation and what the trend is. I live near Buck Hill, and in the past they were open weeks before thanksgiveing--this year they had one fluke day the week of thanksgiving, and then closed. They wre open for last week, but the recent rains have shut them down.

[Marxdem]

34. I like to reference the NOAA not "owners of local ski hills"

Use science and not local word of mouth.

[eyepaddle]

38. Look into GIS;

It is possible to compile data which in themselves seem unrelated but when properly examined can prove quite illuminating. An example of this is habitat shift. Where the treeline sits on a mountain does not tell you any single temperature--but in can tell you their agregate. Check with the gardeners AND the ski hills AND crop planting date averages and see if there is a pattern.

Think of it as nature doing the calculus for you, without having to do all of that tiresome integration yourself.

[cmutt]

11. It's not so bad

.. another 4 years of Bush's environmental policies & we'll be able to get by in shorts & a t-shirt (that was was low-hanging fruit & I just couldn't lay off of it -- sorry!)


Actually, we've had a series of mild (snowfall-wise) winters. When I moved into my house 9 years ago, we had a monster snowfall that year. I didn't have a snow-blower & wound up shoveling (and complaining) all winter long. I bought a snowblower going into the fall after that & have hardly used it since then.

We had the stat just a couple of days ago that we had 12 inches of snowfall by the first week in Dec. last year. Our total this year? less than 1 in. Temps have been above normal as well. Daytime temps have been hovering beteween in the mid-to-high thirties for the last two weeks or so. It's very a-typical. I'm not a big skier/ice fisherman/skater, so it doesn't bother me much, although my wife does want some snowfall in time for Christmas & my kids want to know when they can go build another snowman.

[lojasmo]

14. My 8 year old has never seen real snow here in MN

Sad...I'm aching for about 3-4 feet of snow.

[Marxdem]

18. Not going to happen

Considering your average seasonal snowfall total is 42 inches, its very unlikely you ever had or will have 4 feet on the ground.

[eyepaddle]

22. Ever heard of "drifts?"

In many localized areas snow accumulation can (does) exceed snowfall.

As long as we're here: it'd be an Amateur, least snowy (not least snowiest)

[NickB79]

25. Ah, I miss those snowdrifts

By late January, the snow would make such beautiful shapes and designs on our fields at the farm. It would look like waves of a lake, carved into the snow, with massive crests and deep valleys. I haven't seen that in years now :-(

And yes, I too remember snowdrifts many feet in height, so they do occur, only not very frequently any longer.

[Marxdem]

32. wrong

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=snowiest

I used the proper terms.


Join me over at http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/ and lets discuss this so called snow hole that seems to be so common on this thread.

Bottom line, records do not indicate any change in snowfall from 1899-2004. Your backyard doesn't hold up well in my line of study. Detroit's snowiest December just took place 4 years ago. Since 1975 the average snowfall of 44 inches has been maintained going back to 1899 (approximate date records started).

[eyepaddle]

35. Sorry, but

You said "A" amateur when we know it's supposed to be "AN" in front of a word starting with a vowel, and in fact (although it is falling into disuse) any word starting with an "h." An example (well, actually that was one right there--here's a second) would be "I have AN harmonica." In conrast to the more common, though technically incorrect "I have A Harmonica." oh yeah, you mispelled "Amateur."

Next; your dictionary entry only defined snowiest in relation to "Snow" and "snowy," and not usage. I don't have a style guide handy (used to look at the roommate's) but I think it'd go something like this "snowiest: largest amount of snow" so if we substitute your phrase we get "least largest amount of snow." You've got contradictory and confusing modifiers. Just say "Least Snowy."

But hey! Don't let anything like being wrong stop you from feeling certain.

I also missed a mistake with a contraction, and drought--unless by draught you mean how deep a ship's keel sits in water, or possibly a nice long drink of snow.

M'mmmm drink the snow. (Just not the yellow stuff!)

[Marxdem]

36. I can see you are spent on this topic

Can we talk about weather? I have no interest in getting into a spelling/grammer debate.

[eyepaddle]

42. Well, having had more than one of my

science papers shredded for spelling and grammar I can say assertively that yes, writing skills are critically important in science. Professors, reviewers, editors and referees DO care about your writing skills, in fact they care a LOT. I learned more about writing in my geology studies than I ever did in English class.

And be careful trying to come across as the only authority in a room, scientific pissing contests can go on for years, and can become very convoluted, and yes, can get down right nasty.

Do a quick lit review for Tony Runkle on whether or not the the Jordan Sandstone/Oneota Dolomite is a conformable contact or not, and you'll see what I mean.

People get their hackles up in a hurry.

[goodhue]

29. 4 foot of snow on ground not unlikely as you state.

We used to dig tunnels when I was a kid.

I think your focus on precipitation fails to account for what happens after it falls. It used to blow around into big drifts, now it melts.

[wellstone dem]

70. My dad

used to yell at us because we'd be out digging tunnels and houses in the back yard and the snow on the sidewalk would still be there when he got home from work. God, that was so much fun.

[lojasmo]

57. Um, we sure did when I was young....outside of Duluth.

the houses on park point were nearly covered at times.

[barb162]

75. In December 2000 in Chicago we had that much on the ground

and nothing melted as it was sticking way below freezing for the last 2/3 of the month. Then we got another huge snowfall in early January 2001. Snow was piled ten feet high all over the place

[taught_me_patience]

15. Tons of snow in LA

More than last year combined!... :D

of course it is in the mountains... 75 down here in the "valley"

B-)


taught.

[Jack_Dawson]

17. 75 here too!

-San Diego

:toast:

[karlrschneider]

19. It happens every now and again...I lived in MN for 2 years (about

23 months too long) back in the early 90s (and had travelled up there many, many times previously)...not sure what year, but somewhere around 89 the area around St. Cloud got virtually zero all winter. At least that's what they told me, I arrived in the -other- season, "road repair."
:D

[DemonFighterLives]

30. I'm trying to get cabin fever here

Just staring out the window imagining the snow that should be there. I don't know what's up, but the last 5-6 years at least are less snow and less months of cold. Winter comes later and spring comes earlier.
Back in the day there was tons of snow and extremely cold weather. Let's see about 10 years ago we had like 40 days below 0. That was a drag and if your vehicle and home made it through, you were lucky.

I've got an old story from the farm when my dad was a kid. Grandpa and Grandma tied a rope between the house and the barn so they could make it across the yard. I guess it was a heck of a year. I'm only talking about 200feet or so. Legend has it.

Hi Minnesotans!
Demon fighter born and bred in the north!

[Jack_Dawson]

56. Does MN have outdoor pools?

Random question I know, but I need to know the answer.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

63. Yes, Minnesota has outdoor pools

like the municipal aquatic center in the suburb of St. Louis Park, but they aren't used much in the winter. Even though it's comparatively warm, I wouldn't want to go swimming outside this weekend. Thirty-five degrees is too warm for snow, but it's still a bit chilly.

[Jack_Dawson]

68. So if I wanted to swim laps at lunch...

like I do here, it would have to be at an indoor pool? There are no colleges/universities w/ outdoor pool facilities?

[Nobody]

67. Yes, my family had one

And so did a couple neighbors. We had an aboveground pool that was solar heated in the summer and covered with a tarp in the winter. The neighbors had inground pools that were heated.

It's why my mom and sisters could go skinny dipping at midnight any time we wanted to.

Vacuuming the pool was a huge job. You couldn't rush through it or you'd stir up all the junk that fell in from the trees. Our neighbors had machines to do it for them.

Aboveground pools are a lot cheaper than the inground kind. We didn't have to hire anyone to dig a hole and pour concrete, all we had to do was dig just enough to get the ground level and all the installers had to do was erect the pool itself. If memory serves, it was about 2000 for the pool (28' diameter round, 4' deep everywhere) and chemicals for the swimming season and for keeping it over the winter cost around 3-400 dollars a year. Not to mention the time spent in maintenance. You have to test the water every day and keep the pH level at a certain range or NO SWIMMING. You had to vacuum at least every two or three days (this can vary depending on how many trees in the area) and you have to have a reliable way to keep neighbor kids from just coming over any time they feel like it because you are liable if they fall in and drown despite their not being invited.

If you're thinking of getting a pool, they're loads of fun and make you an instant hit with the neighbors.

[DemonFighterLives]

72. I was going to get back to you yesterday

But my computer was acting up.
Yes there are pools, but most of the outdoor stuff closes up shop in the winter.
You can go for a polar bear dip though to really jump start ya. It is being done for charity, but even that will lose it's appeal if the lake doesn't get good ice. :9

[Marxdem]

46. Data

http://www.climate.umn.edu/text/historical/mspsnow.txt

Looks like the 1930's had some low totals. The 1980's had a few good years, it all plays toward the average overall.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

51. I moved back to MN after 19 years in Oregon

When I left in the early 1980s, we typically had at least a month of subzero temps and snowfalls of up to 3 feet at once. Measurable snow fell as early as October 26 and as late as April 30. Once it fell, it stayed at least till April.

I came back in the summer of 2003 and braced myself for a typical Minnesota winter. Instead, I got what was mostly more like an Oregon winter, except for one week when the temps went below zero at night. This year looks like a repeat.

My elderly relatives (and I mean people in their 80s and 90s) say that they've never seen anything like this.

[Marxdem]

52. The early 80's were an anomaly

If you look at my previous post you will see that. You were there during the worse of MNs winters. In the 1920's to 1950 it was probably the least snowy period in Minneapolis history.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

55. Well, it was pretty damned cold in the 1960s and the 1970s, too

I remember walking home from school in 1962 on a day when it was 36 below zero. I recall a blizzard in 1965 which closed the schools in my outer ring suburb for three days because the snow plows were buried under snow drifts. I recall waking up to the radio one day in 1972 just in time to hear the weatherman say, "We're expecting a high of 37 below zero today."

My mother, who was in high school in the 1930s, told of lots of below zero temps and heavy snow, and it was in 1940 that the killer Armistice Day blizzard struck.

[mandyky]

59. KYis supposed to get some

sometime tomorrow! We had thunderstorms today! LOL Don't ya love global warming?

[shakerbaker]

60. I Miss Minnesota

Lived there for 20 years-moved 2 years ago.I look to the day I can come back home.

[Jack_Dawson]

62. Where'd ja move to?

and why do you hate it so much?

:shrug:

[shakerbaker]

78. I moved to WA state

I don't hate it here. I miss my home and friends.Minnesota is
very special to me.

[Nobody]

61. This is a wimpy winter

There's something wrong when it rains in December.

I can go outside and get the paper in bare feet and not be cold. It's tropical here.

The first two decades of my life, there was at least one minor snowfall in mid-November. There was always something on the ground in December. And it never RAINED in either November or December.

I was one of the lucky kids whose yard got the big dumping of snow from the snowplow clearing our circle. It became a snowfort.

We also had plenty of snow days in school. It was reported in today's paper that this current bunch of school-age kids have yet to experience a single snow day.

What's really sad is that in parts of the Twin Cities, the grass is still green.

Who took my state and moved it to Texas?

[Jack_Dawson]

64. G-Dub, that's who

oh and Tom DeLay.

[Marxdem]

65. Its cold just north of you

The jet stream for the past month hasn't been favorable for cold air yet.

[Nobody]

66. I'm hoping things will get back to normal soon

I don't want to lose my adaptability to entire weeks when the temp would not get above zero even for a high.

And snow is fun to watch as it comes down, I don't mind driving in it and I don't mind shoveling it.

The St. Paul Winter Carnival was founded as a reaction to a reporter for the New York Times referring to our state as another Siberia, unfit for human habitation in the winter.

I embrace that phrase with pride: Winter's here, bring it on!

[wellstone dem]

71. I hope it holds off until the 23rd or 24th

My daughter is on crutches and it is so much easier without snow. Once the holiday vacation starts, snow away.

Also a reminder for when it does snow. A friend in a wheel chair hates winter because folks don't shovel their walks promptly, be sure to always shovel so that the folks on crutches and wheelchairs can get around easily and safely.

[northernsoul]

79. it's been this way for several years now

Our Decembers are becoming more and more like our Octobers, but without the beautiful fall colors. Lots of winter sport recreationists getting itchy...

Just doesn't seem right for it to be December without snow.