What about retaking Congress?

[SavageWombat]

What are our chances? What elections do we need to win to retake control of both houses? How long odds are we talking here?

As a side question - if our candidate won every single state possible - i.e. still in "play" - how much of the map would that give us? Enough to claim a decisive mandate, and/or a landslide, or just a continuance of the 50/50 politics we've been seeing? I've had it with the red states/blue states stuff.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

1. One possible way to do it is to harness the energy created by the

infrastructure Dean has created with his MEET-ups...this has brought many people together who otherwise would NOT have met...getting grass roots support for reclaiming congress and the senate is about the only way to compete with the ridiculous amount of money Bush is raising.

[damnraddem]

3. On the local level, that is already building.

At our meetup Wednesday, Deanieboppers were being asked to volunteer as precinct committee people where the Dems didn't have them. Next will have to come getting Dem candidates to declare where none have yet done so. Then, walk the blocks and beat the Bushes.

[Bandit]

2. I don't know but without Congress we won't stand a chance no matter

who wins the Presidency. Congress can and will tie the hands of any President if he is of the opposition party.

[gratuitous]

4. I think there may be more "in play" than the conventional wisdom indicates

Turnout is a major factor, and the Republicans are doing everything they can to make it seem like another four years of Chimpy is inevitable. It's up to us to get the word out that not only can he be beaten, but that it's crucial to the country's future to oust this gang of robber barons and put government back into service for people, instead of large corporations.

[goobergunch]

5. For the two houses

The Senate is about a 45% chance of regaining control IMHO, but it would probably be only a 51 seat margin...not that much.

The House is out of reach UNLESS there is a wave, which I could see happening if dissatisfaction with the war and economy grows and engulfs the Repukes into a 1994-style defeat (just vice versa). This scenario would also give us a better margin in the Senate.

[Nevernose]

6. What will Texas be like?

Did their "redistricting" go through? How many Dem seats stand to be lost? Will the redistircting take effect in 2004 or 2006? Will the court overturn it in time if it takes effect in 2004?

[goobergunch]

8. Not yet

The state legislature stands adjourned until Dewhurst calls another special session. If a plan passes, it could zap at least 8 Dem seats.

[NewJerseyDem]

7. It's possible

It seems like the best democratic oppurtunities for pickups in the senate are in Illinois, Alaska, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Missouri and Kentucky. The most vulnerable demorcatic senate seats are in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, and South Dakota. Democrats would have a chance at pickups in Oklahoma and Iowa if the GOP incumbents retire and the republicans would have a chance if Breaux retires in Louisiana. It seems unlikely though that those senators will retire but they haven't announced yet. I think that we won't pick up control of the senate because Kentucky, Colorado and Missouri will be hard to take but we have a strong possibility of at least keeping it the same.

The House seems to be probably beyond our reach. Due to gerrymandering after the 2000 census there are very few swing seats. We have some oppurtunities in New Mexico, Arizona, Iowa, South Dakota, Florida, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Indiana, and Georgia but we would need to win virtually all of the very vulnerable republican districts in order to win control of the House. We also have to deal with texas redsitricting efforts and we also have vulnerable seats in Washington, Oregon, Texas, Kentucky, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, Louisiana, and Kansas. There are obviously other states with potentially contested seats but we would really have to have a large sweep to take the House and that would have to mean a strong presidential run.

[goobergunch]

9. Don't forget candidate recruitment

For instance Gerlach's seat in PA (mine) is competitive, but if we don't field a candidate, we can't win.