the "but is Dean ELECTABLE?" BS

[nostamj]

note: I am NOT (yet) a Dean partisan.

BUT, this nonsense...

who thought CLINTON was electable at the same time in the campaign?

there are issues and there are diversions.

stay on issues.

of course Dean is 'electable'

next SERIOUS question, please.

[poskonig]

1. As the venerable Sharpton says,

in order to turn out Democrats, we need to turn them on.

[caledesi]

32. Well said by Sharpton. Thanks for that.

[arwalden]

41. As Jessie Jackson Says...

It's the vanity of humanity
that keeps them home...

[ButterflyBlood]

2. but you're forgetting that

over half of Americans are knuckle dragging bigots who hate gays with such a passion that they would rather lose their jobs and go homeless than have any type of benefits extended to them </sarcasm>

[KaraokeKarlton]

35. That's a myth

Most people really don't care if people are gay and couldn't care less what people do in their bedroom. Most heterosexual people are going to be very uncomfortable seeing public displays of affection between gays, but it really doesn't go any further beyond that. Most people aren't going to have any problems with gay rights being addressed unless there is a push for gay marriage. Civil Unions won't bother people, but gay marriage steps into that gray area of separation of church and state...and that won't fly. Just about everyone in the country has a relative or a friend who is gay. You're always going to have a few bigots, but for the most part, there isn't widespread hatred of gays. People have more important things to worry about than who people are having sex with.

[ButterflyBlood]

38. I know that

hence the sarcasm tag.

[Iris]

3. Damn, for that matter, who thought "w" was electable?

[Ellen Forradalom]

5. He isn't!

Which is why his buddies on the court intervened!

[nostamj]

6. as it turned out...

uh, he WASN'T!

[ibegurpard]

4. I really don't like the word "electable"

Every election is different and what worked in the past might not be as relevant today. What happens if someone "electable" loses?

[pansypoo53219]

7. the same question should be asked about

G. aWol. Bush.

[Bombtrack]

8. No he isn't, not with any real probability

Voters basically are apposed with him by at least 2/3rds, on major issues like foriegn policy and taxes.

He basically exascerbates every dem weakness, while at the same time not really offering any innovative progressive reform.

He comes from the most sterotypically left-wing state, has individual parallel positions and images of McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis, and often becomes nasty and shrill when put in any kind of debate or argument.

[polpilot]

10. but, of course,Edwards is 'cause he's from 'reglur peeple' 'mill workers,

reglur people, reglur people...Edwards is not bright enough to mount a plausible campaign at this point in his 'political career'. It's a tad more difficult to convince a large group (i.e. U.S. voters) than a mill town jury uh 12.

Dean '04...Not Reglur

[Pastiche423]

11. That was

a good impression.

[Bombtrack]

20. actually, he convinced 784,391North Carolinians in 1998

which is probably more than everybody who's ever voted for Dean in all of his races combined. In a state that's about 10 clicks to the right of Vermont.

Sorry if Dean is just a typical silver-spoon-fed dime-a-dozen politician

[polpilot]

23. I know reglur folk, neither uh my parent made it to 6th gade, I'm the

first in ma family to read on a 5th grade level, first one to go to a dentist, I'm reglur folk, I fought for 40% uh tha take on multi-million dollar suits, i'm tha fus 1 in ma family ta hava suit, i'm reglur, i'm waaay reglur.

Dean '04...Premium high octane not reglur!!

[blm]

28. That's just DAMN RUDE!

You want to mock some people for their circumstance in life, you're at the WRONG BOARD!

[virtualobserver]

12. Thanks, Mr Rove.

is he as "shrill" as Al Franken?

[Ellen Forradalom]

15. ???

Are we talking about the same person?

[Eloriel]

16. Every time I read one of your posts about Dean, Bombtrack

I find myself wondering what alternate universe you're inhabiting.

You toss out these utterly false statements, and never offer any explanations, let alone documentation.

Whatever alternate universe it is, I want none of it. I'll take reality and facts. But thanks for playing, esp. since the farther away from reality you move, the more amusing it becomes.

Eloriel

[Bombtrack]

21. What did I say that is false?

a lot of what I said is what is accepted public and journalistic opinion, which is the bread and butter of national politics

so it's as utterly false a statement to say that anything I said is false

Ok Vermont is ARGUABLY the most stereotypically left-wing state.

I'm sorry why I don't you debunk something specific before accusing me of slander

[mlawson]

17. Bombtrack, this is not a way to convert others to Edwards,

as you see by the responses below. Now, I can't even reply to them, because they didn't start it!

IMO, Dean AND Edwards are immenseley electable, and the hardest thing (one of them) has to do is get by the Dem powerbrokers somehow, and get the nomination. Beating bush wil be relatively easy, after that.

I still believe that Edwards and Dean are the only two who have a realistic chance of beating bush, BTW....

[Bombtrack]

24. How is Dean immensly electable? and who are these powerbrokers

I'm sorry but his notion of electability that people have is completely based on wishful thinking and rediculous leaps in logic.

None of them ever want to acknowledge the political reality that Bush is a formiddable candidate. The RNC is going to outspend us 4-1. We have about 10 senate seats to defend, the most vulnerable in the south and something like 8 or 9 being in red states.

The economy is rebounding, WMD's and or terrorists/Saddam will probably be found in sufficient enough numbers to help Bush.

Public opinion is more socially and economically conservative and foriegn policy hawkish than since the 80's probably, or at the very least since 2000.

For the things it would take for Dean to be able to get 270 electoral votes, so so much would have to go the wrong way for the GOP.

Which makes his electability in the same probability of Larry King being voted sexiest man alive

[ibegurpard]

25. That's your opinion

and there are a lot of people who disagree with it.

[Bombtrack]

30. it's my assessment based on electoral science, and fundamentals

it's also "just my opinion" that Gigli won't win the best picture author. But that doesn't mean that someone who disagrees is just as likely to be correct

You won't give any good reasons to debunk the FACTS that the majority opinions by very comfortable margins of voters

think Saddam needed to be removed

and

don't think a middle-class tax increase is a good idea

and are uncomfortable with gay marriage enough to cost more votes than gained by his signing of it.


Thoses things are facts, not opinion.

it's just as ignorant to ignore public opinion on the most important issues and electoral probability in a primary than it is to vote for Bush

[mlawson]

26. He and Edwards are new faces, smart, and they have

charisma, I think. Again, it's not the issues that swing the 20% of voters in the middle; it's style, LIKABILITY (!!!!!!!!), looks, empathy with the 'common people', etc etc. Not necessarily the issues that absorb the 80% who vote ideologicaly, and they are already set in concrete, anyway.

Of course bush is a formidable candidate. I have already said that I don't think the other seven Dems can beat him. The economy??? We don't know about next year, yet. Iraq?? I do not see how bush gets out of that one. But again, the 20% in the center elect the prez, and their criteria are all over the map (and off the wall).

But blasting Dean is not going to win over people to Edwards. When someone goes at Edwards, do you then want to abandon him, and adopt the candidate of the basher??? I doubt it.

[Rooktoven]

34. Dead on on the bashing.

I've been backing Edwards (privately, not actively) and lately have begun to wonder if Dean is the guy. Both have their strong points, and their strong points tend to be opposites, personality wise.

I'm still looking at both men, it's a matter of approach and gut hunch for me. I happen to think that harsh attacks on someone based on "electability" are counter-productive-- we are going to have to back the nominee, regardless of what that nominees position is on the initial war vote, rolling back the Bush cut, the death penalty, fair trade, etc. Anyone who isn't prepared to do that is an idiot. (Look at the alternative.)

Who's to say that Dean wouln't be more likely to carry Ohio than Edwards would carry North Carolina or Georgia (or vice versa)?

There is something to be said for tapping a national vein, or creating a national mood-- and the jury is still out on who can best do that. But lets be civll toward each other in our arguments and save the fire for the dark empire.

[Bombtrack]

43. Dean is less electable than Edwards in every swing state

Ohio wouldn't vote for Dean unless some watergate-like scandal occured right before the election and/or we had a second recession.

I know you want to keep things calm, but the fact is that the democratic party is in serious danger with the prospect of Dean being nominated. He is Rove's dream candidate, I believe Rove or people close to him have even admitted it.

To really understand why I can come off as so hostile towards him is that I know elections and I know and have been taught by alot of people who REALLY know elections. It's really very ignorant for all of these Dean supporters, who I'm sure think of them selves as enlightened and noble, to ignore the overwhelming consensus of so many pollsters, strategists, and politicos, and think that they are somehow a better judge of these things

Dean would not even make it close. Unless you live in Vermont or New Jersey or a few other places, it would not even be worth campaigning.

[tedoll78]

44. wow.. interesting..

I know elections and people who know elections. I have a PolySci degree also, so I have also been taught by "alot of people who REALLY know elections." Given this, I don't think I'd fall under your "ignorant" category. Of course, you've never met me and probably know very little about me, but you know sooo much more and are able to make a judgement about my level of knowledge, and the knowledge of other Dean supporters, right? (/sar.)

And I think Dean is electable. See my opinion below. Given that we both have some level of expertise, we might have to agree to disagree. In the meantime, I'll take the high road and not be so arrogant as to automatically classify all Edwards supporters as "ignorant."

[Bombtrack]

48. i said a certain attitude is ignorant, not people

people brush off the overwhelming consensus opinion from the professional and academic pol community, and implie that the anti-war activist community somehow has a better take on these things

That is just as ignorant as the republicans who rely on the corporations over the scientists for environmental issues

[tedoll78]

49. You characterized a large group of people..

based purely on whom they support.

"It's really very ignorant for all of these Dean supporters, who I'm sure think of them selves as enlightened and noble, to ignore the overwhelming consensus of so many pollsters, strategists, and politicos, and think that they are somehow a better judge of these things."

And you assumed that they "ignore" the "consensus" of professionals. Has it occurred to you that some Dean supporters might have weighed the opinion of professionals before making a decision for themselves? Remember that concept.. the idea of weighing the facts and then making a decision for oneself? Interesting, eh?

[BiggJawn]

47. So then, why don't we just all stay home on election day...

And let those "many pollsters, strategists, and politicos" of yours just pick our leader for us.

oh, wait, they already do, they get on TV and tell us "so-and-so's TOO Liberal to beat Bush"...

actually, Rove has wet dreams about Lieberman, because he knows Lieberman as the Democratic challenger will give Chimpy 100% of the lowest voter turnout in 200 some-odd years...peopel WILL stay home (any stick their heads in their ovens) if Joe gets The Nod.

[blm]

9. They are ALL electable in a fair election.

With BBV we can't afford a close election. I am looking for someone to go in with a MANDATE TO GOVERN, and put the GOP in the crapper for generations to come.

[unfrigginreal]

13. I hope you start looking somplace else!

n/t

[blm]

22. Nice helpful attitude.

.

[hedda_foil]

14. Thank you, blm. We're shoulder to shoulder on this one!

BBV is THE issue we all need to be working on.

[rocktivity]

18. The only correct answer to "Is Dean electable?"

is, "Compared to Bush, you mean?"


rocknation

[Must_B_Free]

19. Dean is another Al Gore

Heard it on TV, so it must be true. Or, at least, I know I'm going to hear it alot more on TV.

[Demobrat]

27. Al Gore won.

Works for me.

[jburton]

29. Dean can't win

His neck bothers me.

He's from an ultra liberal state

He voted with the Repubs, was too DLC

and on and on and on:eyes:

[Cha]

33. Dean needs a Massage and some Good Hot Sulpher Springs...

WAter!

[JohnKleeb]

31. nos I am not one either

I will tell you this I hate being told the same for my candiate thats a whole new thread.

[KaraokeKarlton]

36. The most hilarious one is that he's "too liberal"

I nearly wet myself laughing when I hear a Kerry supporter say they aren't voting for Dean because he's not electable because he's "too liberal". Yes, it's true that the more liberal a candidate is, the less of a chance they have of winning the general election. But anyone who claims to be supporting Kerry because Dean is "too liberal" hasn't done much research because Kerry is far more liberal than Dean is, and likewise much LESS electable than Dean is.

[tedoll78]

37. Here's how Dean wins:

(and BTW, he mentions this in his stump speech): We give the 50% of Americans who don't vote a reason to vote again. And he's successful, from what it looks like.

Given Bush's new low in polling, it looks like the race will be another 50-50 split.
Pretty much any Democrat we nominate who campaigns at a quality equal to or better than Al Gore will get 50 million votes.
Bush will get his 50 million votes.
If Dean's our nominee, turnout will go UP in our favor.
Even a mere 3 or 4% (3 or 4 million) will make it statistically near-impossible for him to lose in the electoral college.

And I know some will say, "but what about civil unions?" Dean can point-out that Cheney also supports this type of legislation; he should think about keeping a video of the 2000 Cheney-Lieberman debate nearby at all times. This WILL neutralize the issue.

And I know some will say, "but what about the fact that he's 10% behind right now?" Well, Gore was anywhere from 7 to 15% behind in 1999 and for most of 2000. Gore also took a brutal daily raping from the press - and Dean's getting great press compared to him. When the American people began to pay-attention, they still liked Gore's message enough to bring the race to a tie. Given Dean's very apparent tendency to not take any bullsh!t, I don't think he'll have problems getting our vision for the future out to Americans.

Also note that Soros is putting-up $75 million for an unprecedented get-out-the-vote operation on election day in 17 key states. That's a phenominal amount of money, and it should complement Dean's local organizations very nicely.

So yes, Dean can win the whole thing. I'd even be so bold to say that he'll have long coattails if he really does manage to raise Democrat turnout next year - we might actually take back the Senate with him at the top. I can honestly say that I don't think any of the other candidates has shown such a capability.

That's how I feel about it, and that's why I've been a supporter of the Doc since pretty much the beginning of his campaign. Early on in the year, my friends and family laughed at Dean's chances. At this point though, I think I've been vindicated.

[diamondsoul]

39. Interesting.

I hate to say it but I'm not buying that Dean can motivate non-voters to come out to the polls, at least not if my local area is any indication. Not a slam, but let's face it, on some of the issues working people, poor people, homeless people and just plain defeated and disgusted people are worried about, Dean is too moderate to inspire a radical voter turnout.

That's not to say he can't win, I just don't believe that would be the way it happens if he's the nominee.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

40. Non-voters

Dean is already bringing in non-voters. Maybe it won't be a radical increase in turnout, but I think he can bring back a lot of people who have just stayed away from the polls for a long time because it has seemed so pointless. I've seen these people at Meetup. These are not political junkies like us, or even the political steadies who vote in every election, but people who just haven't cared enough to vote in recent years.

[tedoll78]

42. I'm going to be watching Iowa and New Hampshire very closely.

If there's a rise in turnout and if it's linked to Dean, it'll be another piece in the pattern of non-voter mobilization.
Even if it's a tiny 3 or 4% bump, that'll be significant.. coattails and all.

As inventory so far..
The MeetUps, with anywhere from 1/2 to 2/3 of new voters attending - check!
The Huge Rally Attendances, chock-full of new voters - check!
The staggering number of first-time political campaign contributors - check!

Next: Iowa!
Then: New Hampshire!
Then: The Nomination!
Then: Unification of the Democratic Party!
Then: Victory in the general election!

So far, it's all going according to plan. :party:

[RevolutionStartsNow]

45. I also think

that similar to what's happening in Calif. with Bustamante, Dems who perhaps don't share Dean's views on some issues will vote for him if he appears to be the one with the best chance of beating Bush. I've heard this said from several undecideds: I will support anyone who can beat Bush. Whoever seems to have the strongest momentum and Bush-armor is likely to get a lot of anti-Bush votes.

[BiggJawn]

46. Dean must be worrying them something fierce...

If Rove's starting to spread this crap about him this early on.

Any person with Brain One would tell you that Bush is "Unelectable".

But to the ReTHUGlicans, he's Zeus on Olympus.

This is how it works. If you hear "Dean's UNELECTABLE" enough times, you will believe it, and you will start to tell others "I don't think that Dean guy's got a snowball in Hell's chance.."

And it's not limited to Dean. Plug in any name, Sharpton, Kerry, Gephardt. I've heard reasons about EVERY candidate why they are "unelectable".(except for Jowly Joe, he's the one Rove wants to put his meat puppet up against because he beat him once, he can beat him again)

there is no such thing as an "unelectable" candidiate. GW Chimpa-roony should have settled that question.

[Shanty Oilish]

50. If it's true that 70% believe the Saddam/alQaeda connection...

They'll believe anything.
Like that Dean is an ultra-left extremist who wants to destroy the concept of marriage, pervert our health care system, open our borders to terrorists, raise our taxes and bungle our foreign policy.
And that's what the Republicans would say.

Comparisons to Gore won't wash. Gore had experience. Not everyone who voted for Gore would vote for Dean. People are feeling threatened and a former governor of Vermont is not going to reassure them.

If he's nominated, the only hope I see is that there MAY not be a third party luring Dems away from Dean.

Of course I'd vote for him. ABB. But I very much doubt he'll win the nomination, much less the election. We've been down this road before. We need the center and Dean can't deliver it.

[Demobrat]

51. Dean is electable only if

every committed Dean supporter manages to nudge 2-3 of the apathetic previous non-voters they know down to the polls. Does anybody really think we can't do it? I know I already have.