Will the tsunami death toll skyrocket?

[jdj]

I have heard that the #'s they have are coming from hospitals, the confirmed dead. Today on cable "news" they are showing alot of footage from the Aceh province, one of the locals from one island said "Aceh is drowned". Wil they estimate the # of people that used to live there, or have they already...there are anywhere from 10,000 to 30,0000 on some of these islands, does anyone know if these fatalties on the island and remote areas have been included yet. I can't stop thinking about the people that haven't been reached yet.

[Pirate Smile]

1. Yes, it probably will. You may want to look at this

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/

"The State News Agency in Malaysia, Bernama, quotes Indonesia's ambassador to Malaysia as saying today that three large communities in the Aceh province appear to have been totally destroyed— but are, as yet, inaccessible. "Aerial surveillance found the town of Meulaboh completely destroyed with only one building standing," said Ambassador Drs H. Rusdihardjo.

Until Sunday morning, Meulaboh had 150,000 residents.

The Ambassador also says there were "no signs of life" in Pulau Simeuleu. It had a population of 76,000. Access to these areas— if only to see if anybody is still alive there— has been cut off due to the destruction of roads, and rapidly depleting fuel supplies. Aerial views of the area show not just devastation, but obliteration. Some communities are recognizable only because a few building foundations remain intact, like the chalk lines around a dead body. Others look like images from the 1889 flood in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, or the 1900 hurricane that destroyed much of Galveston, Texas.

Ambassador Rusdihardjo concluding that the death toll in Aceh Province, could exceed 400,000.

[jdj]

4. I get so confused.

And the first plane that landed on Meulaboh was a PRIVATE plane, and the first person to fly over these island was a PRIVATE citizen, which makes me made as hell. I was watching the first private plane land, and the talking head on CNN actually said "now that the officals know that they can land on the landing strip..." (only a third of it was left). So a private person had to stick their neck out in a major way to get help to these islands, it seemed like the govt' was just going to let them rot. Some of them will die of simple starvation and thirst. The should have assessed the situation IMMEDIATELY, I KNOW the survivors would have found a way to clear the air-strips. It feels like Hurricane Andrew times ten, the tourist areas were covered ad nauseum, but there was serious neglect of the outlying provinces.

And the conservationist that flew over the islands on Tuesday or Wednesday was not a gov't official or anything. He took his footage to some head guy who seemed unmoved.

Someone on BBC.com who lived in Phuket said there was gross sensationlism by the news media, that they were implying the whole area was devastated when it was just the coast, 'getting a story' instead of pressing to make sure the more remote areas were assessed.

[idiosyncratic]

2. Yes . . .

:cry:

[Cuban_Liberal]

3. Yes.

I've heard estimates of as high as 600,000.

[rocktivity]

5. Check out these before-and-after aerial pics

Entire areas have disappeared.

:headbang:
rocknation

[nostamj]

6. it is a certainty... sadly...

look at this before/after devastation in one small part of Aceh province.

http://www.tagesschau.de/styles/container/image/style_images_default/0,,OID3933330,00.jpg

http://www.tagesschau.de/styles/container/image/style_images_default/0,,OID3933360,00.jpg

the numbers will rise but it's doubtful we'll ever know the full death toll.

in a village in Aceh province...

[jdj]

7. then it really bothers me they are not giving more coverage

to estimating about these folks.

The gov't officials need to be the hell on the air about this, these people are being disappeared for the second time.

Why are they not talking about this more?

[nostamj]

15. but....

*numbers* don't make for good television, esp. if you have an english-speaking (preferably white) person with a FIRST PERSON SURVIVAL STORY...

=============


a village in Aceh province

In a village in Aceh province,
There are no words,
There are no stories,
There is no one to speak them,
From this village of Aceh province.

In a village in Aceh province,
There is no one to remember,
The maps of homes and neighborhoods.
The gossip and myths and the names of neighbors--
Lost to a village in Aceh province.

In Aceh province,
A place that always was there
Is there no longer.
A contraction, a redacting,
Of elemental indifference.

A village once part of the province of Aceh,
Drowned in the greater din of death that day,
Must be mourned--nameless--by strangers.

December 31, 2004

[karlrschneider]

9. You're right, we won't ever have a reliable number, but it'll be between

250,000 and 350,000. That's my best guess. Horrible.

[alcuno]

8. Skyrocket? The first # of dead I heard was 9.

I think it's already skyrocketed.

[jdj]

10. no, I mean go from 150 K to over 400 K

because of populations of outlying provinces that have vanished.

I am trying to figure out if it is true what I heard, that the # they are giving on TV is simply those that have been confirmed dead by coroners or hospital personnel.

These folks out there in remote areas may be starving to death with absolutely no aid yet, and I can't stop thinking about them. It's upsetting to me. I guess I want someone to tell me that I am wrong.

[alcuno]

14. I think the government of Indonesia already revised upward with that

in mind. That's why their number went to 80,000. They are already estimating.

[jdj]

19. I was under the impression those were official counts

not estimations.

If they haven't been to these islands to get counts on whose still alive they can't possibly know how many are dead, and the first plane just landed on one yesterday.

[DoNotRefill]

20. From what I understand....

the 145K figure being bandied about is "stepped-on dead"...that's the actual body count.

[alcuno]

21. I don't believe that they have found 145,000 bodies.

Many were swept out to sea and the Indonesia number nearly doubled in one day because of an estimate.

[DoNotRefill]

22. I do.

remember, they had in excess of 1,000 bodies brought by foot to one temple/collection point.

you've seen the big pic from Phuket, right? I counted in excess of 200 bodies in that ONE photo before I stopped.

This is massive. They're cutting off fingers for identification purposes and then burying them in mass graves with power equipment. That's not something you do based upon an estimate.

[thedevilinthedetails]

24. Yeah the 145,000 number is 'confirmed' dead, actual counted bodies

These numbers are based upon actual counts, that's why they keep saying they doubt they will ever know the total number truly killed because at some point they will stop counting bodies because so many will simply have been washed out to sea or buried in the mud.

[DoNotRefill]

11. the true number will never be known....

I'm guesstimating 750,000+ killed dead in the first hour, with an equal number eventually dying from wounds or other effects of the disaster.

[jdj]

12. how are you getting those numbers?

in earnest...I am endowed with an American public school education, the inadequacy of which becomes more evident every day.

Is there a good link one can go to?

Surely someone else on the internet with at site is talking about these islands and the plight of those in the remote areas.

[DoNotRefill]

13. It's called a SWAG.....

Scientifically Wild-Assed Guess. I started by pulling up population density maps and took it from there, comparing population density and contour maps of the same locations.

Would it qualify as scientific? Not really. Would I put money on the estimate being accurate to +/- 10%? Nope. But that's what I THINK the figures will end up being, ball-park.

[jdj]

16. population density maps sounds like a good start

I knew there was a way to do it but I did not know the terminology..is there just one site you are using, or many, could you post a link?

Does it not seem strange to you that the media is not doing more speculation about this. I mean look what happened when Eggelund called rich nations stingy, 2 billion dollars. If someone in the media would harp on this maybe they would have gotten aid out there quicker.

It just seems so weird to me, and I'll tell you what I think it is. It is just that the media doesn't know the populations in these areas, and THEY ARE NOT TRYING TO FIND OUT, which is unforgivable. It really is. They just don't care any more, they don't have to. All they have to do is keep repeating 7 day old footage of survivors stories. I just have this horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach. And we will never know how many just starved to death because no sorry ass talking head, researcher or fact-checker bothered to do what you are doing and pressure these gov't officials by getting on the air with this.

[DoNotRefill]

18. Sorry, no links....

I did this at the local university, where I still have friends in the Geology dept. who give me access to their resources.

[jdj]

17. dupe

dupe

[OneBlueSky]

23. my guess would be that the combined total of confirmed dead . . .

and missing and never found will ultimately exceed a half billion . . . easily . . .

[fujiyama]

25. Half a billion?

I think you meant half a million. Half a billion is more than the population of the entire US.

Half a million is very possible.

[OneBlueSky]

26. yoicks! . . . I pulled a Bush! . . .

of course I meant a half million! . . . must be time to adjust the meds . . . :shrug:

sorry 'bout that . . .