Under California law, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger must issue a proclamation by Jan. 15 setting the date of a special election, to fall on a Tuesday 112 to 119 days later. That means the election will fall on April 26 or May 3 or 10, according to the secretary of state's office.
But the winner of the contest could be determined much earlier.
Eight weeks before the special election, all declared candidates will compete in a primary. If one candidate wins 50 percent or more of the primary vote, he or she would automatically assume the seat. If no candidate clears 50 percent, the top Democratic and Republican vote-getters would go on to compete in the general election.
But because of a two-to-one Democratic registration advantage in the district, the winner will almost certainly be a Democrat.
"No serious Republican candidate will get in this race - they'd be delusional," said GOP strategist Kevin Spillane.
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