When are Americans going to turn decisively away from the Iraq War?

[cali]

And what are the implications when they do so? I feel that Americans are right on the verge of turning from tentative support of the war to outright hostility against bushco. Just over half of Americans already believe going into Iraq was a mistake. A larger number believes we need to stay there until the "job is done." I don't see the elections being anything but more fuel added to the fire. What happens when the tide of public opinion turns? Does bushco approval rating sink into the low forties? What does this portend for his agenda? Does it give dems in the House and Senate more leeway to block his agenda? Will voters take it out on repubs in the '06 election cycle?

[bluestateguy]

1. the draft

That'll be lots of fun to watch: little blond, blue eyes chickenhawk College Republicans sudden discoveries of "bad backs" or "bad knees".

[Nimrod]

4. I wonder...

How is it going to be worded so rich kids don't get drafted? We know that only the lower classes will be going, I'm just wondering how they'll justify it.

[tsuki]

29. No deferments, college or marriage or children. Remember,

Bushco knows all the "tricks."

[Ladyhawk]

32. But how will a draft be managed?

Surely Bu$hCo won't call it a "draft." Right now there are a lot of draft-like things happening and the media looks the other way. Might they not look the other way when some new "recruitment tool" comes down the pike.

Expect some Orwellian name for the draft. Expect to see commercials on soldiers getting to see the world and returning soldiers having their way paid to college.

Can they get away with a draft just like they've got away with everything else?

[Gyre]

2. When there's a draft

And not a minute before.

Gyre

[illflem]

3. A large resistance attack where hundreds of GIs are killed

might do the trick. It doesn't seem to feel as bad to many people when the deaths trickle in.

[Nimrod]

I doubt it

The masses have been brainwashed to the point where such an attack would be seen as justification for the war, not as a point against it.

[Nimrod]

5. Deleted

Dupe

[candle_bright]

6. Question

Is the purpose of trying to turn public opinion against the war to have our troops pull out now?
If so, what will become of Iraq if we up and leave?

[InvisibleBallots]

7. what will become of Iraq if we stay?

?

[qanda]

20. You took the words right out of my mouth

You'll probably be waiting a while for the response though.

[cali]

8. That question is unanswerable.

Nevertheless, I bellieve we should leave. I'm not sure of the best way to achieve getting our troops out, whether through a gradual draw down, or a swifter removal of troops, but it now seems to me that we're creating an unstable environment rather than creating a safe, democratic society- bushco's oft stated goal. Former NSA Skowcroft advises that troops be under UN or NATO leadership. I'm not sure that's the answer. Perhaps there is no good answer, but the status quo sucks for the Iraqis and the U.S.

[candle_bright]

9. For the sake of argument

let's say we pull out next week. Let's further say all hell breaks loose and complete civil war breaks out in Iraq. What then?
I wish our troops were home too, but the above is my fear if we pull out now.

[smbolisnch]

10. That goes to show just what this war has done.

We are there and people are dying in greater numbers every day, Iraqis are afraid to leave their homes etc. If we leave, they country will be in ruin still and the insurgents will still be running the show. We have destroyed their country, no matter how you roll the dice.

[sendero]

17. Get real...

... whether we leave now or later, there WILL be full scale civil war. You could make the case that there already is.

This is utterly predictable and was predicted as well. With a society divided into 3 or more religious sects, what do you think would happen.

You have a lot of learning to do, welcome to DU.

[infusionman]

19. Hey, What if civil war breaks out here?

[primavera]

22. Ask yourself how well the Israelis have done...

...bringing democracy to their occupied territories? The problem we now face is analagous to the Israelis': we have no legitimacy in the eyes of the population. So nothing we might attempt to contribute towards a solution for the crisis we created is ever going to be well received by the Iraqi people, who, ultimately, are the ones who have to live together. We're always going to be the evil invaders, the infidels, or, at the most generous, tourists who have no place in the context. Even if we were to come up with some truly good and selfless proposals, they'd still be perceived by sizable portions of the Iraqi population as suspect, simply because they came from outside invaders.

I think the choice before us at this point is either a) to withdraw and do the very little we can from the sidelines to minimize the destructive impact of the civil conflict which undoubtedly will follow in the lawless chaos we leave behind, or b) remain and try to play policeman and repeat the Israeli experience, watching decade after decade roll by, filled with suicide bombings and domestic terrorism perpetrated by those who will never accept a peace that is imposed upon them from the outside. And, after doing this for decades, we'll finally give up and go, at which point we'll be back to a) again anyway. In a way, it seems like we might as well resign ourselves to that bleak fate since there's pretty much no way of escaping it, only postposing it, and get it over with. Then maybe Iraq can do what it should have been allowed to do in the first place: arrive at its own solution for either living peacefully together or for splitting the country, in its own time and according to its own designs. Only when the solution - good, bad, or neutral - is one which the Iraqi people reach by themselves will it be a solution they can accept.

[cali]

23. Hell has already staked claims

in many parts of Iraq, including Baghdad. We keep hearing that all hell would break out if we left, but we don't know that. We do know that in almost two years we have not been able to bring security to Iraq. We can't even secure the road to the airport. We can't know what will happen if we leave, but we've had ample evidence that our presence has achieved nothing but increasing violence and unrest. How much longer do you think we should stay? If a year from now, the situation is relatively unchanged, should we still stay? Two years from now? Three?

[leftchick]

28. The troops make the situation worse by staying....

do you actually believe they control anything other than the US embassy in the Green Zone. This is a quagmire. The US is LOSING the quagmire. It is best to leave now, give the Iraqis the billions of dollars we would have used for military operations as reparations and say we are sorry. Here is an excellent 5 point plan that bushco* will never use because it makes too much sense. The fact of the matter is bush* does not give a shit how bad it gets or how much it costs. He will have his oil or the Armageddon and he hopes both!

~snip~

http://www.islamonline.net/English/In_Depth/Iraq_Aftermath/2005/01/article_01.shtml

As Larry Diamond, who worked as a senior adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority, has noted, “There are really no good options,” at this point. But there are better options than the policies being currently pursued. The following five steps would lessen the violence and insecurity in Iraq:



1. Decrease US troops and end offensive operations: As a first step to withdrawal, the US should declare an immediate cease-fire and reduce the number of troops deployed in Iraq. Instead, the Bush administration has done the opposite, increasing the number of troops stationed there by 12,000. Increased offensive operations will only escalate the violence and make Iraq less secure and less safe. The US should pull troops out of major cities so that greater manpower can be directed to guarding the borders to stem the flow of foreign fighters and money being used to fund the resistance. If Iraqi security forces need assistance maintaining order, they have the option of inviting in regional forces, as proposed by Saudi Arabia. They could also reinstate the former Iraqi army, which was well-trained, after purging upper-level Saddam supporters and providing additional counterinsurgency training to deal with the current war. Once implemented, these measures would allow for total withdrawal of US forces.



2. Declare that the US has no intention to maintain a permanent or long-term military presence or bases in Iraq: Congress needs to make clear that it is committed to the principle of responsible withdrawal of all US troops from Iraq. By making this statement through a congressional resolution, the US would openly acknowledge that it has no interest in controlling Middle Eastern oil or in suppressing Muslims, hence depriving insurgents of their central organizing message. Without such a resolution, Iraqis have little reason to believe that our present actions are nothing greater than a plan to establish a long-term military presence in Iraq and make the occupation a permanent feature of Iraqi life.

3. Do more to restore services: Moving control of reconstruction from the Defense Department to the State Department has been a positive step as it removes an agency designed to fight war from the much different task of nation building. But a much stronger statement to the Iraqi people would be to go even further and give Iraqis direct authority over reconstruction funding. The US government and its contractors have failed to restore public services and public safety, strengthen institutions, or provide jobs. Meanwhile, billions of appropriated dollars remain unspent. By giving Iraqis control over reconstruction funds, more Iraqis will get jobs and projects will be better targeted to the needs of Iraqis. And lowering the unemployment rate will weaken the potential for recruitment into the insurgency.

[leesa]

15. We have no credibility in Iraq. Our presence does NOTHING good.

Do you understand that the Iraqis view us as occupiers? Just like when Hitler invaded Poland. Exactly the same move...including the faked Reichstag fire (9-11).

Our continued presence in Iraq will only make things worse.

[corbett]

11. The Draft Is Correct

bluestateguy mentions the draft in his response. He is exactly correct. Only something like that, which is a story which the MSM whores will cover, will be enough of a shocker to wake some Americans from their political stupor. It will be of course, dreadful for the nation, but also one of the largest broken campaign promises by the shrub.

Until then, the Kool-Aid continues to go down smooth!

[cali]

12. I disagree

I think Americans are very close to wholesale repudiation of the war.

[corbett]

13. I Hope You're Right But Stand By My Belief

[sendero]

18. I'm not prone..

... to bouts of optimism, but I think the turning point may well be within months of the "election".

Because I'd bet my $1000 to your $10 it will change NOTHING on the ground. Americans have been hearing about how things are going to get better for 2 years. Even the biggest idiot in the world eventually figures it out.

When popular opinion re the war changes, I predict the change will be dramatically swift. There is a levee of trepidation just waiting to break. It will, no more than a year from now.

on edit: gotta learn to spell those big words :)

[tsuki]

30. I think there is a repudiation of the war, but as noted above,

most people don't know what to do.

[SmartBomb]

14. Some will never turn away because they believe God is involved

For the rest, it will be when they realize that despite his blustery faux-patriotic rhetoric, Bush has no real plan and no control over where it's going. When they understand that the brute force/battle of wills/I wont take no for an answer approach will never really win it, they will quickly tire of throwing money and kids down that hole.

I sure hope they get there soon.

[DavidDvorkin]

16. They have to be told the truth about it first

As long as they believe it's going well and was justified and made us safer, they won't turn against it in large number.

The media are even hiding -- or at least diverting attention from -- the US death toll in Iraq, let alone the Iraqi death toll. Unlike Viet Nam, we don't see the coffins coming home. Incidents like the attack on the mess hall are the exception.

[MountainLaurel]

21. When we nuke Iraq

Which is what a lot of them wanted to begin with, and still want. I'm ashamed to say that my father is one of them.

[cali]

24. I'm sorry your dad

feels that way, but don't let that over influence you. The fact is the number of people who are disillusioned by the war is increasing every month.

[leftofthedial]

25. what difference would it make if they did

this is Murka, land of the neocon and theofascists, no America, the world's leading democracy. The wholesale replacement of the most successful middle class in history with Wal Mart jobs with nary a whimper from the public proves that the public is docile. If they did speak up, their opinion is moot.

Elections are a sham.

[cali]

26. That's way too simplistic

What ended the Vietnam war? The people withdrew support, and it became untenable. Elections may be hampered by some degree of fraud and voter suppression, but they still count. The opinion of the people still counts. When- not if- the tide turns against rethug policies, including this disasterous war, the rethugs will reap what they've sowed, and no amount of rigging will save their asses.

[leftofthedial]

34. Viet Nam was prior to the neocon takeover

when elections were still fairly legitimate

I truly believe that public opinion no longer matters here.

(Or perhaps more precisely, that "public opinion" is whatever the neocon-theofascist propaganda machine tells us it is.)

[cali]

36. You're projecting more power

onto the "neocons" than they actually hold. But beyond that, elections in this country have always been riddled with fraud and vote suppression. But back to the neocons. Whenevever people feel disenfranchised and beleaguered, they look for a group to focus all the blame on. Hey, don't get me wrong, I find
Straussian political philosophy despicable, but I don't see the fabled cabal of neocons as an insurmountable obstacle. Like any other group that wields a degree of influence, their day will pass. Public opinion invariably, if slowly, really does change the course of American Policy. Yes, it's often tragically late, but as they say; better late then never.

[leftofthedial]

37. I think the "power" is in the hands of professional conmen

The policy influence belongs almost entirely to the neocon-theofascist wings of the RW. For the foreseeable future, their interests overlap.

The willful laziness, ignorance, and apathy of the Murkan public enables these two groups to do pretty much what they want.

It's not scapegoating.

Public opinion's influence is exercised through the ballot box, which is now a sham controlled by . . . the conmen who are nominally the neoconss and theofascists' bosses.

[BiggJawn]

27. Don't know, but I hope it's soon.

It's lonely out here on this branch by myself.

Maybe when their boys start getting those "Hi Y'all!" letters from the Chimp.


RIP Khephra.

[Geek_Girl]

31. I think the Iraq War is Loosing support among America's

Nov Poll

Dec Poll

I'm not sure what is going to happen after the elections in Iraq. But if the conditions do not change the support for this war will plummet. As for the political fall out, I think it will be on both the GOP and Democratic party side. The GOP will try and distance itself from this mess and so will the democrats in order to position themselves for '08.

[leftchick]

33. I really don't think support will plummet until a draft is started.

I believe the majority of Americans have no clue just how bad it is in Iraq. No clue!

[Been Fishing]

35. Bush's ego will not allow him to withdraw from Iraq.

The U.S. military will be there for a long, long time.
1. Will not allow the insurgents to "defeat" the US of A
2. 300-500,000 troops will be committed
3. Bush will tell the American people that every sacrifice
must be made
4. Iraq must be made "free", even if it kills them
5. Halliburton hasn't got enough government contracts yet
6. It's the oil, it's the oil
7. God wants us to convert the moslems to Christianity
8. We haven't had a crusade in a long time

Take you pick.

And when Bush doesn't win in Iraq, he'll attach Syria, Iran, and North Korea. Maybe separately, or all at once.