Disturbing Analysis: Bush Could WIn

[pippin]

THE NATION
As Bush Gains, Florida Democrats Losing Enthusiasm for a Rematch
Los Angeles Times, September 7,2003

"now that the 2004 campaign is gearing up, some Florida Democrats are concerned that none of their party's potential nominees are up to the job of defeating the president in a state where his younger brother, Jeb Bush, won a landslide reelection as governor just 10 months ago. . . All signs suggest that Florida once again will play a pivotal role in the presidential election. Karl Rove, Bush's chief political strategist, has already described it as "ground zero" for 2004.

Given the president's continuing strength in the South, the Mountain West and the Plains states, many strategists in both parties believe it could be almost impossible for the eventual Democratic nominee to win an electoral college majority without capturing Florida."

Bush also is stronger now than he was in 2000 as Flordia becomes increasingly more Republican: "One basic indication is party registration. In 2000, there were 372,843 more Democrats than Republicans registered in the state; by this summer, the margin had dwindled by nearly 60,000, to 314,969. . . More dramatic were the results of the 2002 election. Republicans padded their majorities in both the state House and Senate. With the help of a favorable redistricting map, they expanded their lead in the state's 25-member congressional delegation from seven seats to 11."

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-na-florida7sep07000421,1,6155894.story?coll=la-headlines-frontpage

A very troubling article--some of it is spin but some of it leaves Democrats room for thought.

[Cocoa]

1. he has to be considered the favorite

the GOP's latest strategy is to cast Bush as the underdog.

But it's obviously transparent if you look at the money differences and the fact that he's the incumbent and the power he has to control the agenda with the powers of his office.

[diplomats]

4. Of course he COULD win

he's an incumbent. What's changed is that his victory is no longer a foregone conclusion.

[rock]

2. Pure spin

Not really disturbing, more like predictable.

[CatWoman]

5. plus, this is a dupe -- read what floridians say

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=292207

[Ress1]

3. Sorry to have to agree,

they have so damned much money. The only thing that breaks in our favor is he has a record, which he didn't last time.

[Capn Sunshine]

6. Its an early visceral reaction

They are starting to realize the awesome power behind the internet funding model. They will be spinning the "no candidate" line until Dean is outdoing even their corporate desperation soft money stuff.
We have the potential, just with our current model, to raise over 600 million.

Of course they are scared shitless. All their evil planning for nothing.....

[Julien Sorel]

7. Don't worry about this. Howard Dean is going to raise

600 million dollars through the internet, walk on water straight to Washington, and kick Bush out of the White House without raising a leg. Howard doesn't need Florida to win; heck, Howard doesn't need votes at all. Howard transcends traditional, mundane concepts of elections like votes. Howard's righteous anger is all we need to sweep the bastards out of Washington!

[vi5]

11. I applaud this post....

I am a Dean backer but I love good sarcasm and this qualifies. Kudos.

[Capn Sunshine]

8. "the margin had dwindled by nearly 60,000, to 314,969"

HEY WHAT A COINCIDENCE!!THIS IS ALMOST THE EXACT NUMBER OF VOTERS REMOVED FROM THE ROLLS BY KATHERINE HARRIS!!!

wow, people in Florida are stupider than we thought!
So is anyone who doesn't see this..............

[0rganism]

9. Florida is too far gone, but Ohio and New Hampshire are in reach

ratfucker won both those states last time around, and still had to cheat in Florida to get the nod.

[newyawker99]

10. dupe

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=292207


I am locking this one.


NYer99
DU Moderator

[JPace]

12. Oh sure......

the common married couple with a combined income
of $55,000 a year and has gone through the
following in the last two and half years....

1) Husband lost his factory job to
overseas outsourcing and now works part
time at Sams Discount Club. Their household
income has dropped $25,000 a year.

2) With his job loss they lost their health
insurance and are now paying out of pocket
$600. a month for insurance that pays
almost nothing unless it is catastrophic
illness.

3) Because of State shortfalls in revenue
his 3 bedroom ranch house is being
taxed 30% higher.

4) Their teenage children are ready for college
but they had to spend the saved tuition
to make ends meet when the job was lost.
Tuition has been raised 40% and one child
decided last year he'd rather join the
military to save toward tuition but instead
got shipped to Iraq. The other child had hoped
to be trained in computer skills in college
for a high paying job in software development
but those jobs don't exist anymore.

5) Mom worked at a local department store as
a salesclerk but sales have been so dismal
that her job is not likely to last another
year.

6) Moms parents lost half of their retirement
income during the stock market crash and
will have to sell their retirement home
and move into something more affordable.
Their medications have been too expensive
and they are not buying all the prescriptions
the doctor wants them to anymore.

Now are these people likely to vote for
AWOL again?
O.K. so some of them will if they are
devoted pro-life or gun huggers. But most
are going to want a change in the WH in
a big way.