Peak Oil and Personal Debt

[poe]

..
For those of us that think that the UK government isn’t aware of the issue of peak oil, I would ask to think again and read the newspapers more closely. Oil depletion isn’t a conspiracy theory, like some UFO on the horizon, where believers speculate whether there is some sort of cover up. Oil depletion is a known measurable that has been proven, around the world. The markers for the future are here in the news now and it doesn’t take too much of an imagination to understand them.

National identity cards, a national road toll system that will charge car users large sums of money for driving at peak times by 2014. The government has already given warning that the current pension system, is not in the long term affordable. In the summer of 2004 the UK government announced that it was prudent that people should put three weeks worth of food aside for emergencies (the BBC ran several pieces on this), mainly terrorist attack. Along with plans to base the army at food depots during the next fuel strike and you begin to understand that we have all quietly been put on notice.
I will leave you with one last thought. The CIA publishes its own report on world oil resources, which stated that as of 2002, proved world oil reserves stood at 1025 million barrels. If you divide this by current yearly consumption we have just over 34years (as of 2002) worth of oil left. This does not take into account that world oil consumption is increasing and in real terms this figure is more like 25 years worth. With a little imagination you can understand having read about oil depletion that we will be in a major crisis long before the 25years are up. We are doing nothing to prevent this other than going to war and preparing for other wars with countries that have resources that we need. Time is short to get your lives in order and the quicker people wake up to this fact, the happier we will all be.://www.energybulletin.net/4200.html

Sources

www.energybulletin.net/308.html

www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/fields/2178.html

[Swamp Rat]

1. kick

:kick:

[The Doctor.]

2. There is always hope:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER


Salvation is one long hard stretch away...

Will we make it?

[poe]

3. Wind- Solar- Frugality-Simplicity-Seeds-Transformation

Never be afraid of the level of change we all need to make. Community solutions. Get Peoples Gardens Projects going immediately. Set up barter systems. Freecycle. The world is waiting.
Se rebeller est juste, désobéir est un devoir, agir est nécessaire !

[The Doctor.]

5. No really...

Fusion has the potential to sustain human growth for a while if properly employed.

A long while.

Long enough to get somewhere in terms of culture, society, philosphy, technology, production... to a place where humanity could sustain itself under nearly any circumstances.

I hold out for hope.

[arcos]

4. and the 1025 million barrels figure is fake, as most "proved reserves" nt

[The Doctor.]

6. That actually appears to be a misquote...

If you hold up the world's average daily consumption of oil at roughly 82 million barrels per day to the "proved reserves" number of 1025 million; you only wind up with 12.5 days worth of oil in reserve.

No - it's just a misprint.

[poe]

7. yes my friend you are right

Compare the reserve data from CIA info and look at the country by country breakdown by ASPO. Don't add up. Wher are the investors going/leaving. Oops, cooked the books.

[rman]

9. actually it's 1000 billion (1 trillion) - pretty accurate;

there are more optimistic numbers all the way up to some 2.5 trillion, which would include non-proven reserves.

global consumption is some 20 to 30 billion barrels per year (you can see how global reserves can't be 1 billion barrels)

1000 billion devided by 30 billion/yr amounts to some 35 years,
meaning the global reserves would last some 35 years

IF both consumtion and production remain constant from now on,
which it won't - consumption grows by some 2 to 3 percent per year,
and production inevitably will decline as oil fields become more depleted.

The upside is the oil will last longer than a few decades, though that's hardly comforting when you realize the downside is that production will not be able to keep up with consumtion long before the reserves actually run out.
Estimates are that global production will start declining in 2007 ~ 2008. From then on everything oil related will become more expensive.


sources:
http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/reserves.html#

www.uwec.edu/grossmzc/solberkr.html

http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/discoveries.html#

www.uwec.edu/grossmzc/solberkr.html
http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/index.html
http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/consumption.html#

[oasis]

8. Thanks Poe for bringing this important issue to our attention.

[rman]

10. 1025 million global reserve would last some 12 days

global consumtion being 80 million barrels per day

for the rest i refer to my post #9