What blue state is the most likely to go red?

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[skypilot]

1. Pennsylvania.

Give it a few years.

[On the Road]

2. Pennsylvania, Maybe?

Don't know how to characterize a lot of those swing states.

[RPM]

24. sadly, its a scare

when the last few old line union folks drop, it will tip.

[One_Life_To_Give]

3. Massachusetts

Hope the freepers don't learn to concentrate their efforts in MA.

[jackster]

4. sorry

don't see it happening here in MASS anytime soon. We just elected even more DEMS to state government. However, they are making inroads and we need to work hard to keep them at bay.

[WilliamPitt]

5. LOL

Never happen.

[ohkay]

6. What?

Mass? um.. not so much.

[geniph]

26. Um, yeah, Mass...right after Seattle and San Francisco go red

I don't THINK so!

[Kathy in Cambridge]

36. No way. We just added more Dems to the State House, and our DC delegation

is 100% Dem.

There's no way in hell MA would go red, and if the Dems have a strong candidate for governor, you can kiss that Repuke mittens goodbye.

[seabeyond]

7. gotten away with three stolen elections.....wtf

it is possible for all of them to now, huh. get a repug sec of whatever in calif, got that liberal state

[Kosmos Mariner]

8. You're asking the wrong question....

Which states are going to go BLUE? If you can't visualize it, don't talk about it, then it will not become a shared vision. It will not happen. Go on the offensive!

Without having dug into the demographic data too much, I think we will at least reclaim:

Iowa
Ohio
New Mexico
Nevada
Arkansas

:dem:

[BlueInRed]

10. my thoughts exactly, which can we turn blue?

[ultraist]

18. NC can go blue. DEM Gov, DEM controlled State Legislature

It was a real mistake to write off the south. Dean is correct, we need to build up support in all fifty states, starting NOW.

[BlueInRed]

33. I agree about the South

TN is the exactly same way, although the Democratic party is getting weaker by the minute. We desparately need to focus some resources there, listen to what they say they need and help them get back on track. TN has a Dem gov, 1/2 Dem legislature (which was completely Dem until this year). The right candidate and adequate resources could flip it.

I didn't know NC was in the same boat; that's really interesting. I thought Arkansas probably was potentially a blue state for presidential elections. Florida was blue in the senate and I so wish Graham hadn't retired.

[Hippo_Tron]

44. What about Virginia?

I know that unlike most other southern states, they don't have a real tradition of Democrats winning there and has gone Repuke in the last ten presidential elections. BUT, Kerry did much better there than he did in most other southern states and I think that includes West Virginia. I think that this could potentially be a new Democratic state.

[BlueInRed]

50. That's an interesting proposal

I always thought of Virginia as very red. But it is certainly worth investigating.

WV used to go Democratic. I know Clinton got them both times, but I think Gore lost it, probably because of his very strong environmental stances.

[Hippo_Tron]

52. Gore would've won West Virginia if his campaign hadn't been so horrible

West Virginia is still a Democratic stronghold and they field us a Dem Governor and two Dem Senators, as well as a Dem state legislature.

[BlueInRed]

53. I thought that in 2000

But I didn't know the details and with Kerry losing it (didn't he?), I just assumed it was shifting.

[Hippo_Tron]

54. Kerry put everything on Ohio

Kerry spent most of his time defending Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan. The only Bush states he campaigned in toward the end really were Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, and Colorado. Kerry didn't do well in West Virginia because he really didn't try there.

[BlueInRed]

55. Same happened in TN n/t

[BlueInRed]

34. deleted dupe

[BoogDoc7]

30. Blue possibilities...

Yeah, NC is definitely one. Dems just lost their chance this last election with Louisiana (had Breaux been the VP candidate, LA may have gone blue. He makes THAT big a difference...maybe), but enough people are moving out of LA because jobs are so hard to find and small business is so hard to start there.

I would almost qualify New Hampshire as a toss-up every election, depending - you have to go win it every four years.

New Mexico or Arizona are maybes as well...but it may take more time and effort than it's worth, if there is a losing of another state.

[begin_within]

14. I did post the red -> blue question first, before the blue -> red question

[Kosmos Mariner]

16. Oops! I didn't see that...

I still don't like the question though. :evilgrin:


:dem:

[begin_within]

17. No problem... but I think they are working hard on turning California.

[BlueInRed]

20. me either nt

[Codeblue]

42. Actually

I know it seems unlikely but I think you're all overlooking Colorado.

Owens may be one of Bush's cronies and yes, we did vote Bush, but Denver and C. Springs consistently vote blue.

Democrats whooped ass in the state elections gaining a huge amount of seats in the legislature and we voted out our repub national senators. I think Colorado could easily go blue in the next few years.

Despite the insane fundies and their book burning.

[BoogDoc7]

9. PA and NY

PA is a definite possibility, but if the '00 senate election was any indication, NY is on the board as well. Hillary's opponent (I forget his name) needed another 2-3 weeks and may have started to tie in the polls. Not that's it's a HUGE indicator, but a good, concentrated campaign could turn New York.

New Hampshire is always a toss-up as well.

[BurtWorm]

27. I just saw that Hillary beats Pataki and Giuliani

And Spitzer beats Pataki. But Giuliani beats Spitzer. As of today.

[ooglymoogly]

11. all you need to turn a state is a crooked pug sec of state

plugged into the kr voting irregularities and you got a red state

[mitchtv]

12. California ...its all planned

remove Sec of state- done
next install Repub SOS
add diebold machines decertified by Kevin Shelley
special election to "redistrict" Ca
win 2008 election all 55 votes
you vote, we'll decide

[begin_within]

13. That is frightening because it is so realistic and plausible

[Done]

15. This will make it impossible to take the country back.

[natrat]

25. you could collectively shout this as loud as possible

and it wont make much difference-too bad the founding fathers could not foresee evoting machines----far and away the biggest crisis ever faced by this country.....boom and huge bust

[VOX]

23. Start w/big $$$, undo legit election, install GOP action-figure governor.

Rethugs just don't like elections when they don't go their way, so they got Gray Davis on an obscure law still on the books, poured a ton of $$$$$$$ into setting up the recall, and putting Arnold in office.

Then insert mitchtv's sequence -- it's all too frighteningly real.

[mitchtv]

29. frighteningly real

step 2 is accomplished Democrat who decertifies Diebold- gone
I hear the Pukes in the Ca-R delegation are starting to blink now, however, on the redistricting.

[slackmaster]

32. You're way off track here

:tinfoilhat:

If you read the history of the state, our frequent hard shifts to the right or the left have been due to the will of the voters within the context of their times.

[mitchtv]

39. whatever, it's still happening

the will of the voters Ha

[slackmaster]

46. Yes, the will of the voters

Denying the reality that about half the time a majority of the people don't see things your way serves no useful purpose. Neither does denying that the winds of public opinion shift back and forth from left to right or any other dimension you wish to define.

Arnold Schwarzenegger wasn't "installed" by the GOP. He was elected by a majority of the voters. Face the fact, or exercise your right to fail to learn from it.

[Quixote1818]

19. Wisconsin and Minnesota are changing red slowly.

[Yupster]

21. Yeah , Bush put an awful lot

of money and effort into Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota this time.

He won Iowa closely. Don't know how close he came in losing the other two.

[begin_within]

28. When I was in WI last September I saw nothing but Bush/Cheney signs...

although I was in Fond du Lac county which is a "red" county, I was surprised that all I saw were B/C signs, and big ones, all over the place. It made me very worried that WI was going to go for B/C, and I was greatly relieved that WI finally went to K/E.

[goddess40]

48. Signs ripped off

The reason you didn't see many Kerry signs in WI is there was a state wide campaign to steal any Democratic signs. Our city had signs taken repeatedly. They even took a huge sign off the Democratic headquarters that required a ladder and wire cutters to take down.

[dflprincess]

41. Kerry won Minnesota by a bigger margin than Gore did

(of course, there was no Nader factor in 2004) AND the DFL took back a surprising number house seats. The Republicans only have a 2 seat majority in the State House now.

There is hope that Minnesota will get even bluer.

[Hippo_Tron]

45. All I can say is that you guys had better toss Normie out in 4 years

Cuz I can't stand that asshole.

[CatholicEdHead]

56. We can hope

but there is still lots of fight left in the MN GOP.

Even though Pawlenty has somewhat high approval ratings, this last budget is pretty bad. Sad that another Strib poll had the pro-Casino/take from the Tribes almost 2 to 1 in favor.

We a long way from a deep red, but a slight red is a realistic possibility in the short term, though with how many things are going not as likley as you would want to think.

[UdoKier]

22. Here's a better question.

I suggest abandoning this dumper thread for this one:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3073945

[slackmaster]

31. If you look at actual history the answer is California

http://alastair.familydallas.com/governors.html

[readmoreoften]

35. Seriously, I think Texas could go Blue

I mean Ann Richards anyone? I see TONS of democratic stickers in Houston (even in the suburbs) and Austin is so blue it's fluorescent.

The Texas vote was definitely black-boxed. I've heard of 6 separate incidences. Bush does NOT want you to know that Texas is way more purple that America thinks. And Texan democrats have spunk.

[ISUGRADIA]

40. Some areas of Texas are very dem but are far outweighed by

the repub ones. I mean really, it's almost 30 years since a dem carried the state for president. Richards won with only 51% over a horribly flawed repub in 86. The state has too many right wing yahoos. Dems can rebound but it won't be in 08.

[slackmaster]

47. I agree completely that Texas could go blue

Due to demographic trends - mainly urbanization, immigration, and the rise of more genteel cosmopolitan cultures characterized by Austin.

And Texan democrats have spunk.

So do gay Texans. You have to have spunk to live in Texas and be "different".

[screembloodymurder]

37. OHIO!

They're a bunch of Worthless Nuts.

[AngryAmish]

38. Wisco

[mmendoza01]

43. WI

Has long been safe Democratic territory now it is really close. Depending on the canidate it will probably be another battleground in 08.

[crazyzoeillinois]

49. ANYWHERE

If we don't watch out the repugs will turn ALL state RED!!! Watch your backs. Dean for chair!

[GOPBasher]

51. Wisconsin, followed by Pennsylvania. nt