Which FIVE RED states are likely to go BLUE?

[UdoKier]

I like this question better than that other one.

[tridim]

1. None, as long as BBV exists

[UdoKier]

2. ACK! Way to rain on my parade!

:cry:

[tridim]

6. Sorry, just being a realist

Election 04 is all the proof I need. Several blue leaning states went red because of BBV.

[bryant69]

3. Montana

THey had a blue sweep except on the presidential level. Colorado maybe as well. Some of the great lakes states that we lost, probably are our next best shot.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[Hippo_Tron]

16. Nobody will campaign in Montana because they have 3 electoral votes

It could've easily been a swing state this time but Kerry really had no reason to campaign there.

[mdmc]

21. I wonder if his family could have campaigned there

and if that would have made a difference.

[Hippo_Tron]

30. The only thing that we have to gain from Montana is a Senate seat

And I guess a nice chunk of blue in a very red part of the country. It's very much a state that has potential to be a democratic stronghold but because of the damn electoral college it's just not practical to campaign there.

[mdmc]

40. It would be worth it just to break up the red

good for our heads...

[Hippo_Tron]

50. The only real SOLID red in that part of the country...

Is Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, and the Dakotas (arguably North Dakota not so much). The rest (Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico) are all potential swing states. The trouble is that Bush keeps winning all of them so it looks like a big sea of red.

[greendog]

61. A guy like Kerry is going to lose in Montana

...silver spoon, wealthy, east coast, patrician, Washington insider. No way!

To get an idea of what it would take to win here, look at Brian Schweitzer. Farmer, small businessman, self made man, blunt speaking populist.

[Downtown Hound]

4. Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado

West Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Missouri, and even Arizona has seen an increase in liberal activity in recent years. Some of those states may in fact be blue, but voter fraud had prevented them from being recognized as such.

[FreedomAngel82]

68. Tennessee

In 2000 Bush only won my state by four percent. This year it was Bush 53% and Kerry 47% and we have a democratic governor so it's possible.

[Pirate Smile]

5. Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, West Virginia.

[jswordy]

7. Hmmm...none from the South?

In presidential politics, in addition to those listed already these all have potential, depending on who our nominee is in '08...

Indiana, Virginia, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas

[Hippo_Tron]

19. Indiana is kind of hopeless because they have a Repuke tradition

I think that the south is salvagable because they used to vote solidly Democratic. Indiana has been going solidly GOP since the civil war.

BTW, Mississippi as Repuke and racist as it is, has a very large African American population (somebody told me that they might actually be a majority). If we could actually get them out to vote, we could capture the state.

[LittleClarkie]

24. What about Virginia?

Seems like it teetered a bit this year.

[Hippo_Tron]

29. Was about to mention that, Virginia is trending more blue

And it went to Kerry by more than the other southern states that have a democratic tradition (I think including West Virginia). Virginia is a potential blue state, but Indiana, at least right now, is too hopelessly entrenched in the NASCAR culture and what not. I think that even FDR lost Indiana in one of his elections, as did Truman.

[LittleClarkie]

37. Norfolk in particular went solidly blue

something like 70%. I was proud of my home state.

[Hippo_Tron]

41. Get your Lt. Governor elected Governor and get Warner into the Senate

Preferably unseating Allen but chances are that he'll just wait two years for John Warner to retire. It's a shame that you guys lost your Dem Senator to Allen in '00 because by 2008 you could've potentially had a dem gov and two dem senators and then perhaps the state would be looking much more blue.

[LittleClarkie]

43. I don't live there any more. But I hope they are able to do what you say

I'm in Wisconsin now. We're barely Blue, so I've got my work cut out here too.

I don't understand why we're barely blue. Our popular Republican Governor Tommy Thompson was otherwise known as "Tax and Spend Tommy" aka a DINO. Our taxes are among the highest in the nation, despite having that Repub Governor for almost 20 years. How they can blame our taxes on the Dems is beyond me.

I worry about our Governor and one of our Senators. A popular County Exec is gunning for the Governorship, and Tommy's gunning for Kohl's Senate seat. The Exec, Scott Walker, is also the guy who tried to short Milwaukee on ballots during the election. Some said he did it for budgetary reasons, but that's not what he was saying at the time. He got ruled against by the courts, because he had no proof, just vague claims of fraud.

So I have my hands full here too. And we just got Accenture in town too. Plus we also had trouble with folks who'd been voting for years in the same place having to re-register. We can register at the polls, but the Repubs are trying to change that too. Ugh.

[Hippo_Tron]

49. Well I hope that Russ runs for President... and as for Kohl

Perhaps he should adopt some of Russ' style of doing things, such as those town-hall meetings in all of the counties.

[Midlodemocrat]

52. Virginia is going to go blue, dammit!

We came pretty close this year. With Kaine as gov and maybe Warner thinking about a senate run...good chance.

[liberalpragmatist]

59. Indiana's VERY republican, but not Southern Republican - it's interesting

More than it being a conservative state (which it is) it's a very REPUBLICAN state. Indiana is today very politically conservative, but it's not like most Southern states, except in the Southern part of the state. Indiana politics have in the 20th century been very conservative and resistant to change but it's more a Midwestern conservatism than Southern evangelical conservatism. It's more based in Lutheranism and conservative branches of mainstream Protestantism that the Southern Baptist tradition. I would say that Indiana Republicans are actually more palatable than most Republicans in southern states or even so-called swing states like Missouri. There's a much stronger streak of Mainstream Conservatism of the type that one finds in Virginia and New Hampshire.

However, New Hampshire, and to a lesser extent Virginia have more dynamic populations that have made them more open to Democrats. Indiana, the Indianapolis area especially is very old-money, old Indiana family. People have lived in Indiana for generations, from the time their families first immigrated. They are ingrained in Indiana Republicanism that is very hard for them to abandon. Clinton contested the state for awhile in '96 and had he put more effort he might have carried it, but it was always an unlikely prospect and he abandoned the effort. Indianapolis-area voters, who would in theory be the basis of a Democratic coalition, are generally okay voting centrist Democrats into local or state office, but at a presidential level they're solidly Republican by tradition.

In Virginia and NH, the population is more dynamic and there's more migration into and out of the state, more rapidly growing areas, more diverse economies and that leads to a more cosmopolitan outlook in those states' major urban areas that makes them somewhat more favorable to Democrats than Indiana.

[Stop_the_War]

8. Florida is already blue...

it's just the voter fraud that makes it red..

[darkism]

22. Same with Ohio and New Mexico n/t

[fooj]

9. Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida and Arizona...

All of the states that were "stolen" for our fraudulent President!

[Quixote1818]

10. New Mexico, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, Ohio

[UrbScotty]

54. Agreed (nt)

[Moloch]

11. These:

Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Arkansas and Louisiana...

[ultraist]

12. NC, TN, VA, CO & AK

Now, if you are asking which of the swing states that went RED this time could go BLUE, I'd say, Ohio, Iowa, FL, for SURE could swing blue.

Which Red states did Clinton or Carter win?

[dsc]

13. Carter doesn't work as an example

because he kind of flipped the map. He won every southern state in 76 but lost places like CA and NJ. It was a very different time.

[ultraist]

14. Clinton won: TN, KY, AK, WV, La, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, NM, Oh

Oregon, and WI and others! He really whooped up on Dole. LOL

You are right, times are different now than they were when Clinton or Carter ran. But looking at historical trends can offer some insights. It doesn't mean we can repeat those exact wins.

[LDS Jock]

44. Clinton won Arkansas, which is AR... AK is Alaska n/t

[ultraist]

46. I stand corrected!

[LDS Jock]

47. :) .. sorry.. it is the Arkansas native coming out in me

[hollowdweller]

62. West Virginia would be easy to win for the Dems

Just come here and shake some hands, stay away from Gun Control, show you are for the working man and you'd win.

[mdmc]

23. I don't think its gonna be that different

Gore - Clark
vs.
Pataki - Guliani

[Hippo_Tron]

35. Unfortunately, Raygun changed everything

Carter swept Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas the first time. Unfortunately, these states are somewhat out of reach for any Democrat now (with the exception of Zell Miller) until we can create a major change in voting paterns.

However, if they do choose to make Pataki or Santorum the nominee, we could potentially portray them as the "northeastern eliteists" and win back Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, Missouri, and perhaps Kentucky and Georgia. Unfortunately this does us little good if New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida all go to the GOP.

[FreedomAngel82]

69. Did Texas

really go blue once?! Wow. Amazed.

[elperromagico]

34. I tend to agree with you. Carter had a strong Southern coalition.

That coalition fell apart in 1980.

Clinton had a Southern coalition too - a weaker one, to be sure, but still one that managed to carry several Southern states. That fell apart in 2000.

I'm not saying we should write off the South; I'm from the South, and would like to see the region go blue.

But don't wait for it to go blue. And don't bet the election on it.

[Clark2008]

20. Both won the South

or at least the vast majority of it.

[Hippo_Tron]

27. Clinton won about half of the south...

The Repukes took the hopeless states: Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina as well as Georgia the second time and managed to snag North Carolina both times and Florida once. Clinton won Arkansas, Tennesee, and Louisiana both times Georgia once and Florida once. The GOP won Virginia both times but that state seems to have a Repuke tradition (which also seems to be breaking as of recent days). The border states (Mason Dixon line) went solidly for Clinton, however. He won Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Maryland both times.

[dsc]

51. No

Both times Clinton won only four southern states. In 96, the year he won Florida, Gore still got more Dixie electoral votes than he did.

[Hippo_Tron]

26. Here are the Clinton states that Gore/Kerry didn't win...

South of the Mason Dixon line:

Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennesee, and Georgia (First time) Florida (Second time). Some argue that Georgia was one of those states that Clinton wouldn't have won if Perot hadn't been in the race. Regardless, it was very close in both '92 and '96, much different than this election when it was basically the first state that CNN called for *.

Mason Dixon Line: Kentucky, West Virginia, and Missouri

Kentucky is also arguably a state that he wouldn't have won in '92 without Perot but I think in '96 he clealry won it. West Virginia was a clear Clinton victory as was Missouri. Missouri has unfortunately trended repuke over the past two years and unseated its Dem Governor as well as Jean Carahan.

Non-southern states: Ohio, Montana (first time), Colorado (first time), Arizona (second time), Nevada

Ohio was arguably a Perot swing in '92 but Clinton clearly won it in '96. Montana was close both times, but of course nobody campaigns there because it has 3 electoral votes. Colorado and Arizona, and Nevada were swing states then as they continue to be now. The only difference is that Clinton won these swing states, whereas Kerry and Gore did not.

[elperromagico]

39. KY was very close in '96,

with a margin for Clinton of less than 1%.

[Gemini Cat]

15. Ohio, Arizona, NewMexico, possibly Montana

and probably either North Carolina or Colorado.
Indiana will probably be the last hold out, but I can dream.

[mdmc]

17. Gore / Clark 2008 (its not that far away)

Ohio (Kucinich jumps on board early with Progressive concessions)
Tennessee
Arkansas
Colorado
Nevada (unless its already blue)
Florida (those old folks owe America and Al Gore a break).

Anything less is uncivilized.

[mdmc]

18. FLA OH TN AK CO NV

[LDS Jock]

45. AK is Alaska ... AR is Arkansas

[ZCFlint05]

25. Ohio, Arizona, New Mexico, Iowa, Florida

nt

[raysr]

28. Whichever ones

get the most farm subsides, Iowa for one!

[Hippo_Tron]

32. Sadly Indiana gets an assload in farm subsidies and they aren't goin blue

MAYBE if Bayh is the nominee we'd have a shot there but even then it isn't a sure bet.

[elperromagico]

31. Nevada, Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado.

Dem numbers are steadily rising in NV, OH, and CO, and NM and IA were only narrow Bush wins.

I've left Florida out because I trust it less than the others.

[JohnLocke]

33. Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia, New Hampshire, andTennessee.

[elperromagico]

36. NH was blue in three of the last four elections.

I think Bush's 2000 win there was a bit of a fluke, actually. A fluke that ultimately cost us the election, but still a fluke.

If we hang onto the Northeast - and there are very few indicators that we won't - I'd say the chances of winning NH next time are good.

[Hippo_Tron]

38. New Hampshire is a WEIRD state

If you've ever watched the West Wing (in particular the episodes where Bartlett is running for re-election) it talks about this a little bit. Despite the fact that Bartlett was the two term Governor of New Hampshire, his advisors toss the state into the red column (not the swing column, the red column) before the debates. Of course after the debates he wins in a landslide with states like Nebraska and the Dakotas and ends up winning his home state in the end winning his home state, but it was a distinct possibility that he would not. The state is a swing state and not a blue one, basically, because they don't like income taxes and don't have one on the state level.

[elperromagico]

42. But there is a pattern there,

I would not call NH solid blue or even blue. But I wouldn't call it red either. It is more purple than anything, but it does have a - slight - blue lean.

[liberalpragmatist]

58. NH has a Republican tradition like Indiana

But at a national level has grown to like moderate Democrats. Most NH'ers are essentially small-government conservatives, not fundies. They are Republican at a local level but willing to vote Democratic for President and sometimes for Congress.

NH and Indiana are similar in those respects. Indiana is red b/c of a red tradition. It's really not Southern conservatism but midwestern conservatism of the kind that dominates in Southern Illinois, Eastern Wisconsin, and Western Michigan. The difference is those states have urban areas that are more solidly Democratic. Indianapolis is a relatively conservative city, like Cincinnatti and any Democratic vote in the city is outweighed by Republican votes in the suburbs and the rural areas. Particularly in the Indianapolis area, a lot of people come from old Indiana families that have always been Republican, always been pro-business, and have a very tough time voting Democrat.

That's why it's somewhat wrong to call Indiana the middle-finger of the South. It's conservative, but except for parts of Southern Indiana (which are more like Kentucky) the conservatism is different. Even more entrenched, but less evangelical - more based in Lutheranism and Catholicism of waves of German immigrants.

[Hippo_Tron]

64. I think that Indiana and New Hampshire are different fish, really

You're right, they both do have a GOP tradition. New Hampshire is one of the two states that FDR never won. But in New Hampshire is also very much an independent state. People take their votes seriously, especially since they have so much power in the presidential primary process. They actually do take the time to look at both sides and consider who is best, not just vote for one party.

Indiana not only has a GOP tradition, but it's also so entenched in rural politics that are very similar to the politics of the south. Also, Southern Indiana was the birthplace of the new KKK movement that emerged in the 1920's. And also as you point out, Indiana has no real strong democratic urban area like New York and Illinois do.

[elperromagico]

67. FDR won New Hampshire in '36, actually.

Maine and Vermont are the only two states he never carried.

[ultraist]

48. Dean is correct! We should NOT write off the South.

Both Clinton and Carter carried a LOT of Southern states. What Democrat president has ever won without carrying some Southern states?

Kerry wrote off the South and it was a BIG mistake. Had he campaigned here, he may very well have carried TN, NC, and WVA. That would have put him in the WIN cateogory.

[William Bloode]

53. Not sure about the rest but......

My state(N.C.)should be a blue state. We are the most progressive state in the south, and most of our elected state officials are Dems. Yet we always seem to vote red in the presidential elections.

[ProgressiveConn]

55. AZ, CO, NM, NV, IA, MO could flip. VA, OH, IN

with the right candidates.

[youngred]

56. Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Virginia and West Virginia

could also take back Iowa, keep New Hampshire and pick up Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, Ohio and Florida

[Freddie Stubbs]

57. Likely? None. Potentially? New Mexico and Iowa,

Both were very close this time and won by Gore last time.

[Melynn]

60. Ohio is going Blue

The Repubs have run the state into the ground.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

63. if BBV is fixed, then Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, and WV

WV was a fluke-Bush gave it an unprecedented amount of attention in 2000, while gor took it for granted. had we had a traditional campaign in the state, bush would have lost

his 2000 wv win was only due to the power of the incumbency. once bush is gone, the state is in play again

[Darkhawk32]

65. Louisiana, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, West Virginia n/t

[Name removed]

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