Serious question regarding the possibility of going to war in Iran...

[WindRavenX]

The thought of attacking Iran right now is absolutely paralyzing to me; it seems like I am dreaming or living in a nightmare. When did I start picking up the paper and reading headlines about Iran? When did THAT start?
It feels like we're in a daze and we can't wake up. Attacking Iran may be the worst move in the past century- we don't have the troops, and Iran will fight. We don't have the funds OR the troops, and you damn know well no one will support us.
What will happen if we attack Iran?
I ask this seriously.

[RBHam]

1. We ar at War with Eastasia...

We've always been at war with Eastasia...

[GetTheRightVote]

2. We do not have the funds to continue a war in Iraq, so I am hopeful

this means that we will never get into Iran.

:kick:

[WindRavenX]

3. but if you've been reading the papers...

...the SAME air before we went to Iraq is now floating around these days; I have no doubt we will go to Iran. Funds be damned. We've seen that W has no care for fiscal responsibility.

[Vladimir]

4. The draft is what's gonna happen,

since your military is already stretched. Once you are effectively fighting on two fronts, you would need a lot more of them.

I suppose the other thing is that morale throughout Iran is almost certainly better than it was in Iraq at the start of the invasion. It would be a long fucking fight, which is why I don't think Bush will do it despite all the warmongering.

[Mend]

5. Is it too much to hope that Democrats

of course not Lieberman, but all the rest, will try and stop this crap this time.

[WindRavenX]

6. I fear...

...that this country is too far into a war mentality to resist.

[murray hill farm]

7. The present problem being..

bush and rice are rattling the swords...demanding that Iran cry uncle and give in to the threats of attack..and give up their continued attempts to develop nuclear energy. Iran has said they will never give it up..and need to develop nuclear energy for the present and future energy needs of the country. Sooooooo...if they back down now to the threats...there will be no more development and they will have to deal with the consequences of giving in...and being bullied now...and having given in now...and in the future to any demands by the USA. At present, the USA is making threats and Iran is calling the bluff. If the bluff is successfully called and the USA back down, then that sets the standard for the USA. they have been called...and it was successful. WEll...so...Iran cannot back down...and the USA cannot back down. Whoever backs down now..is the looser...in the power game. The problem now is that with rice on her tour of taunting and threatening, she has set that stage for someone having to back down..and i doubt if there is any way to turn that around now. She has set the stage where confrontation must occur. It has now been elevated to that point.

[dave123williams]

8. Please note where Iran is, geographically:

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html

Please note that Turkmenistan is a former Soviet republic. The Russians may be a little touchy about us invading. Just a thought.

[wuushew]

12. many former Soviet states have fallen to U.S. bribes and hegemony

[dave123williams]

25. Now THAT is a cool map. Thanks!

[Colorado Blue]

23. I think EVERYBODY would be a little touchy. This is a

very frightening situation and the sabre-rattling has me deeply worried.

[TreasonousBastard]

9. Well, I thought neither...

Afghanistan or Iraq would be as easy as they were, at least to conquer, so what do I know?

But, Iran is much bigger, with more people and hidden and hardened targets. And, the population actually elected the leadership they have.

And, they have been watching how eaily we beat the shit out of Iraq, and the mess we made in the aftermath.

We did very well with the bombings and invasions, but miserably with the occupations. This has not gone unnoticed by the Iranians.

Also not unnoticed by the Iranians is that the other two countries were already divided ethnically and religiously. Iran is almost all Persian Shi'ites. "Divide and conquer" ain't gonna work there, and they can hassle us for many years.

Another small point is that hardly anyone else has a beef with Iran. Where is this next big deal coalition coming from if everyone else, even the Brits, say the Iranians are no real threat and are handling their own business well enough?

None of this would probably be enough to stop these arrogant assholes should they decide to go in, though.

If I thought they capable of it, I would like to believe that we are simply the threat in a "good cop, bad cop" routine with the Europeans begging them to abandon nukes before we get so pissed we'll rain on them. Somehow, though, I think that level of sophistication evades the clowns in Washington.

[WindRavenX]

10. THAT'S the point I was looking for

Another small point is that hardly anyone else has a beef with Iran. Where is this next big deal coalition coming from if everyone else, even the Brits, say the Iranians are no real threat and are handling their own business well enough?


It could be argued that Iraq was a punk country, but Iran...I don't see how they could justify any military action.

[TreasonousBastard]

18. Just think, though...

that maybe Shrub has a long talk with his good buddy Pootie-Poo, and the coalition is Russia and the US?

Hard to believe but if it happened, it gets the rest of the world in line real fast.

The Europeans would be crapping their pants, the Arabs would give us anything we wanted, and Asia would start rethinking everything they're now thinking about.

(Sorry I thought about that-- I am now crapping my pants)

[jjtss]

19. Another point to consider is

That Iran watched while G.Brish and the UN made demands on Saddam Hussein to disarm and when he was fully disarmed that murdering coward** invaded and "pureed" (Gen'l T. Franks) unarmed people. Iran won't forget the treatment that resulted from Iraq's cooperation. Iran believes that cooperation with the US is suicidal!!!!!

[TreasonousBastard]

20. Aside from the magical disappearing WMD's...

Iraq was pretty well disarmed.

The Gulf War and 10 years of No-Fly zones and bombings pretty well devastated their defenses.

Iran has suffered no such problems.

[BillZBubb]

11. If Bushco decides on war, then war is what we'll get.

They will find some willing generals in the Pentagon who will tell them and everyone else it can be done and that they can do it with available resources.

There will be enough buffoons in Congress to go along. The media whores will parrott any and all propaganda while making sure to label any who oppose the invasion as appeasers and traitors.

The sheeple, as usual, will rally behind the Chimperor and his approval ratings will rise to near 80%. There will be many "Support pResident * and the troops" rallies.

The Iranian military will be defeated within two months. The US will take much heavier casualties than in Iraq, but the Iranian military just cannot stand up to American airpower and overall firepower.

Then the real mess starts. We won't anywhere near the resources required to occupy and stabilize the disaster we will have created.

Iranian resistance groups will begin coordinating with Afghan and Iraqi resistance. American occupation troops and collaborators will be killed in the thousands.

[CHIMO]

13. If I May

Offer a suggestion. Look at Noam Chomsky's presentation today on DN. There is a post on the Editorial Board. It appears that the World has given up om the USA straightening itself out from the inside and is looking for other remedies.

[DieboldMustDie]

15. What's DN?

:shrug:

[CHIMO]

17. Democracy Now

Noam Chomsky: U.S. Might Face "Ultimate Nightmare" in Middle East Where Shiites Control Most of World's Oil


http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/02/09/1458256

The presentation is about 50 minutes.

[LadyRaivan]

14. It would be bloody

and long and cost us not only in dollars but in lives. However, I think this is where we're going.

[smoaky]

16. no way

has it occured to anyone that this sudden threat from iran is just another instance of the administration trying to take our minds off the crap in iraq etc. There is no way we are going to invade iran. We can't control iraq and iran has almost 3 times as many people in it as iraq. They even have a parliament. There is no evil dictator to lay blame on this. Bush co knows the press will jump on this and we will all be reminded of how dangerous arabs are etc. and once again get behind the iraq war/war on terror. And yes, I know those are two seperate things.

[Zynx]

21. Not going to happen

1. We do not have enough troops. What exactly are you going to occupy Iraq with when you send the army into Iran? That's our whole field army in Iraq, bucko.

2. We do not have enough money. Fighting Iran would be a nice way to bankrupt the US right quick.

~~~~

If we ignored both of these and declared war on Iran, the following would likely happen:

--Oil goes over $100. Iran would be offline, and Kuwait and Iraq would probably become extremely dangerous due to the Persian Gulf being a warzone.

--US goes broke. Combat operations against Iran would probably cost at least $2 billion a day, probably more like $3-4 billion. Iraq was $1 billion a day and we were halfassing a lot of that. Iran is at least twice as many men, and a much higher tempo.

--US economy goes in tank because of irresponsible debt spending on war and oil shock.

--US troops find out what it's like to fight a real army in cities and mountains.

--Insurgency in Iraq gets a whole lot more dangerous.

--US winds up fighting Hizbollah in Iraq. Fun. Not.

--US finds out what real casualties look like in Iran.

[Minstrel Boy]

22. "Fighting Iran would be a nice way to bankrupt the US right quick."

Have you ever thought, maybe that's what they want?

Many of their other decisions seem to suggest so.

As for lack of bodies to wage a war, the US still has a huge and undertaxed airforce and navy to hammer Iran. They'll want to keep it in the air, and force Iran to capitulate. But Iran won't play that game.

But the ideologues who are drafting US war policy refuse to hear that.

[LibertyorDeath]

24. Take it for what it's worth

I think this site TBR is mostly crap.....but they may have come across the neocon game plan for Iran & the ME


"What in fact will happen is this: Israel will attack the Iranian nuclear sites, with the USA permitting overflight of Iraq for that purpose. Iran will retaliate – but not against Israel – it will attack the ships and armed forces of the United States in the region.

Just like Japan did at Pearl Harbor.

Now, here is the interesting part of the Neocon plan. Iran’s “unprovoked” retaliatory attack on the sailors and soldiers of the United States will be so devastating, so deadly, and so effective, that Bush will immediately be able to call the entire country to war against Iran, (including a forced draft,)"

http://www.tbrnews.org/Archives/a1349.htm