CAPS will ban millions of people from flying - won't stop terrorists

[scottxyz]

CAPS: The Computer-Assisted Passenger Screening System

Fliers to Be Rated for Risk Level
New System Will Scrutinize Each Passenger, Assign Color Code
The Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45434-2003Sep8.html

In the most aggressive -- and, some say, invasive -- step yet to protect air travelers, the federal government and the airlines will phase in a computer system next year to measure the risk posed by every passenger on every flight in the United States.

The new Transportation Security Administration system seeks to probe deeper into each passenger's identity than is currently possible, comparing personal information against criminal records and intelligence information. Passengers will be assigned a color code -- green, yellow or red -- based in part on their city of departure, destination, traveling companions and date of ticket purchase.

Most people will be coded green and sail through. But up to 8 percent of passengers who board the nation's 26,000 daily flights will be coded "yellow" and will undergo additional screening at the checkpoint, according to people familiar with the program. An estimated 1 to 2 percent will be labeled "red" and will be prohibited from boarding. These passengers also will face police questioning and may be arrested....

Additional commentary on other bulletin boards:

http://www.calpundit.com/archives/002118.html

I don't know what the right base number to use is, but if you figure there are 200 million adults in America that means that TSA is expecting 2-4 million people to be completely barred from air travel...

http://www.metafilter.com/mefi/28170

1-2% of the passengers of 26,000 daily flights. Assuming an average of 100 passengers per plane (which is probably low), we're looking at around 9.5 million red flags a year...

= = =

I used an even lower guesstimate of 40 passengers per flight. At that level, this would result in between 10,400 and 20,800 people being turned away from flights every day...

Carnival Booth: An Algorithm for Defeating the Computer-Assisted Passenger Screening System

http://www.swiss.ai.mit.edu/6805/student-papers/spring02-papers/caps.htm

The algorithm, which we call Carnival Booth, then is as follows: (1) Probe the system by sending an operative on a flight. The operative has no intent of causing harm. He has no explosives. He has no weapons. He has nothing. He simply takes the flight and notes whether or not CAPS flags him. (2) If he is flagged, then send another operative in the same manner. (3) Repeat this process until a member who consistently eludes CAPS flags is found. (4) Now send this operative on a mission with intent to harm, complete with weapons or explosives. Since CAPS didn’t flag him last time, he likely won’t be flagged this time, so he incurs much less risk of special scrutiny.

What may be more alarming is that evidence from the September 11 investigation shows that Atta already knew the kernel idea behind this algorithm. Newsweek reported ... that in the weeks before September 11, Atta and his conspirators practiced their attack by boarding the exact same target flights they intended to later hijack (same planes, same times, same origins and destinations). They wanted to ensure that they didn’t raise any suspicions or red flags. This is a clear demonstration of Atta’s cleverness. Like Atta, terrorists are smart. They already know this algorithm. And they are already using it.

[carrowsboy]

1. f*cking NONSENSE

This will further harm the airlines...

[scottxyz]

2. Prepare to be judged and sentenced by a COMPUTER

http://www.calpundit.com/archives/002118.html

The worst part of this is that there doesn't appear to be any system in place to appeal the computer's decision. If you're on the list, you're on the list, and you won't find out until you're ready to board the plane. And if you're coded red, apparently it doesn't matter even if they do a body cavity search and fail to find anything that could pose a danger to the plane. You're grounded regardless....

= = =

Furthermore, these types of lists are notiously hard to get off of. Anyone had to go through the process of getting off a bad credit list?

[jiacinto]

3. I flew to Miami from DC back in late July

My ticket was stamped SSSS. I had to take off my shoes and be examined by the screeners. I was intimidated by what happened.

I did book my flight the night before it was to take off from Expedia.com. So maybe that is why they flagged me. But I felt very scared at the time, although the TSA screener said it was because I bought the flight at the last minute.

I am also 25. So what could have tripped it off with me except for the fact that I bought the ticket at the last minute?

[scottxyz]

5. The SSSS code

From the Washington Post article:

The existing system identifies certain passengers as risky based on a set of assumptions about how terrorists travel. For instance, passengers are flagged for additional screening if they bought a one-way airline ticket, or if they paid with cash instead of a credit card. Passengers who present a threat under these and other criteria are issued boarding passes that bear a coding of "SSS" or "***."

Of course, this doesn't explain why you were flagged - it just says how you were flagged - with an "SSSS" code.

[jiacinto]

7. Well

What I think tipped it off was the fact that I had bought the ticket at the last minute and was only in Miami literally for a day before I was flying back. I left late on a Friday night and then returned on a Sunday evening.

[phaseolus]

8. I've gotten SSSS coded already

It seems to happen when I change return flights... which is unfortunately a common occurrance in my line of work. I certainly don't get this treatment all the time, I've flown several times since then without incident.

[scottxyz]

4. Policy Recommendations

CAPS will ground law-abiding passengers and let more terrorists through.

From Section 7, "Policy Recommendations", in
Carnival Booth: An Algorithm for Defeating the Computer-Assisted Passenger Screening System

http://www.swiss.ai.mit.edu/6805/student-papers/spring02-papers/caps.htm

The most efficient approach to reducing terrorism is to catch a terrorist in the midst of a mission. Attempting to determine who might become a terrorist in the future or who acts like a terrorist is error-prone and easy to defeat....

Techniques for screening checked and carryon luggage have the advantage that they are hard to probe. It is difficult to know whether an explosive will evade security unless one brings an explosive through airport security. If a terrorist is unsuccessful during a probe of such a system, they will be arrested for the weapons they are carrying. Thus, a terrorist cell cannot probe administrative searches of bags and persons....

[uptohere]

14. working pretty well for El-Al

and they specifically are working on prevention.

[scottxyz]

6. Computer errors likely

From a posting at MetaFilter
http://www.metafilter.com/mefi/28170#550205

The first step entails checking your credit report from a credit bureau (Equifax, Experian or Trans Union) or your dossier from Acxiom or Innovis Data Solutions.

Raise your hand if a credit bureau has ever reported erroneous information about you. Ah, I see that's most of you.

[scottxyz]

9. Galileo / CAPPS II system is an un-American invasion of privacy

CAPPS II Back From the Dead
Galileo Will Be Opening Up A Dossier On You

http://www.dontspyon.us/

Soon, anyone who books a flight through the Galileo Computerized Reservation System will have a nice fat file opened-up on them.

CAPPS II (Computer Assisted Passenger Profiling System) is nothing less than a Soviet-style system of internal border controls. An incredible invasion of privacy, the system is un-American and un-Constitutional: not that a pesky thing like the Bill of Rights has stopped the extremists down at Homeland Security. It is our duty as citizens to do the job that the Department of Homeland Security has miserably failed at doing: to protect the US Constitution and stop CAPPS II.

All the information gathered will be stored on government computers for days, but your Galileo travel dossier will be kept as long as they feel like it. The information in your dossier can be sold, bought, traded or given to anyone Galileo wants. Why? Because they can. By providing Galileo mandatory-voluntary information, you'll be helping Galileo turn you into a marketing victim and strip yourself of your Constitutional rights, all in one fell swoop.

[BuelahWitch]

10. When does this go into effect?

date?

[scottxyz]

13. Next year, according to the Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45434-2003Sep8.html

"...the airlines will phase in a computer system next year..."

[scottxyz]

11. Internal border controls to be implemented in America -- Delta boycotted

Flyers have organized a boycott against Delta, an airline which agreed to do early testing of CAPS (Computer-Assisted Passenger Screening system).

http://www.boycottdelta.org/

PAPERS, PLEASE
CAPPS II testing has been restarted.

The Department of Homeland Security's Transportation Security Administration continues in its attempts to set up defacto internal border controls at our nation's airports.

http://www.boycottdelta.org/delta_background.html#terrorists

All the information gathered will be stored for fifty (50!) years on computers that may or may not be safe from malicious hackers out to steal your identity. Airlines can barely be trusted with luggage. Do you really want to trust Delta with your bank account, SSN, mother’s maiden name, and credit rating? By their own admission, Delta’s computer servers are attacked over 500 times a day.

[greenwow]

12. This is a good thing...

if it bars me from flying! I'm tired of traveling for work.

[stickdog]

15. Yeah, what a great idea!

One question:

When was the last time a US citizen (who was not a disgruntled employee or ex-employee) successfully hijacked a domestic flight?

Now then, what the hell is this about if not simply a fascist excuse to invade our privacy?

What additional security are we getting in return? Protection against a nonexistent bogeyman?

[scottxyz]

16. A layman's explanation of the "Carnival Booth" method to outwit CAPS

A team of MIT mathematicians has written a paper demonstrating how the CAPS system would actually make it EASIER for terrorists to get on a plane and go about their mischief.

For those who don't want to read all the technical details, a short, layman's explanation of how terrorists could defeat CAPS has also been published:

http://www.boycottdelta.org/capss2_brand.html

Basically CAPS looks for who MIGHT be a terrorist in the future (based on a new computer-analysis system) - not who IS a terrorist today (based on today's system of face-to-face question-and-answers, x-ray screening, and frisking). Once a terrorist has gone through a few dry-runs (without any bombs or weapons) and is reasonably sure he won't be flagged red or yellow by CAPS - then he is ready to come back and do for the real mission.

"And what if the terrorist organizations sent all their folks on a few test trips? After a few trips, they would know which ones got searched each time and which ones never got searched. Then they would use the ones that had never gotten searched on their mission, knowing that these SEEMINGLY SAFE people (who were really terrorists) could more easily get onto the planes."

The full MIT paper explaining how terrorists could easily game CAPS to be LESS detactable is here:

http://www.swiss.ai.mit.edu/6805/student-papers/spring02-papers/caps.htm

Carnival Booth: An Algorithm for Defeating the Computer-Assisted Passenger Screening System

[scottxyz]

17. El-Al's approach

Israeli airlines El-Al relies on human beings instead of computer programs to handle its security. That's why they haven't had a terrorist incident in over thirty years, despite many attempts.

El-Al's methods are outlined in section 5.2 of this document:

http://www.swiss.ai.mit.edu/6805/student-papers/spring02-papers/caps.htm

[kimchi]

18. Unreal.

Just when I think it can't get any worse.

Yeah, your credit rating has EVERYTHING to do with being a terrorist...


IDIOTS!