Here is a stunning fact in a news story I am editing right now.

[jswordy]

The construction industry is the only goods-producing sector in which employment is projected to grow, according to the Department of Labor.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. But still...

People believe that the maladministration knows what it is doing.

History will show that this period was a new form of depression. Count on it.

If and when this story hits the web, can you please PM me with the URL? I want to link to it.

[jswordy]

5. This story won't hit the Web...

...but it is on trades careers.

I dunno about a new form of depression. It looks classic to me, just like the Carter-Reagan years. I keep telling folks to look for rising inflation (it is already there but vastly under-reported by the govt. -- look at fuel and steel prices!). When I lived through this before, they called it "stag-flation." Stagnant wages and quick price hikes.

In other happy news...

LOL!

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

9. Can I get a copy...

And reprint rights?

The URL is in my sig.

[Skidmore]

2. How long will that last though. The housing market

bubble cannot go on forever.

[jswordy]

7. According to Dept. of Labor projections, and I quote:

Although household growth may slow slightly over the coming decade, the demand for residential construction is expected to continue to grow. The demand for larger homes with more amenities, as well as for second homes, will continue to rise, especially as the baby boomers reach their peak earning years and can afford to spend more on housing. Some older, more affluent baby boomers will want townhouses and condominiums in conveniently located suburban and urban settings. At the same time, as the number of immigrants increases and as the “echo boomers” (the children of the baby boomers) start to replace the smaller “baby bust” generation in the young adult age groups, the demand for manufactured housing, starter homes, and rental apartments also is expected to increase.

Employment is expected to grow in nonresidential construction because replacement of many industrial plants has been delayed for years, and a large number of structures will have to be replaced or remodeled. Construction of nursing homes, convalescent homes, and other extended care institutions also will increase due to the aging of the population, the growing use of high-technology medical treatment facilities, and the need for more drug treatment clinics. Construction of schools will increase to accommodate the children of the baby boom generation.

Employment in heavy and civil engineering construction is projected to increase due to growth in highway, bridge, and street construction, as well as in maintenance and repairs to prevent further deterioration of the Nation’s highways and bridges.

Employment in specialty trades contracting, the largest segment of the industry, should grow as demand for contractors in building and heavy construction rises and as more workers are needed to repair and remodel existing homes. Home improvement and repair construction is expected to continue to grow faster than new home construction. Remodeling should be the fastest growing sector of the housing industry because of a growing stock of old residential and nonresidential buildings. Many “starter” units will be remodeled to appeal to more affluent, space- and amenity-hungry buyers. Also, some of the demand from the trade-up market may result in remodeling and additions rather than the construction of new, larger homes. Remodeling tends to be more labor-intensive than new construction.

Employment growth will differ among various occupations in the construction industry. Employment of construction managers is expected to grow as a result of advances in building materials and construction methods, as well as a proliferation of laws dealing with building construction, worker safety, and environmental issues. Construction managers who have a bachelor’s degree in construction science with an emphasis on construction management, and who acquire work experience in construction management services firms, should enjoy an especially favorable job outlook. Employment growth of administrative support occupations will be limited by increased office automation.

Although employment in construction trades as a whole is expected to grow about as fast as the industry average, the rate of growth will vary by trade. Employment of cement masons, concrete finishers, segmental pavers, and terrazzo workers; electricians; sheet metal workers; and heating, air-conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers should grow faster than the industry average because technological changes are not expected to offset increases in employment demand as construction activity grows. On the other hand, employment of construction equipment operators; construction laborers; and boilermakers is expected to grow more slowly than that of the construction industry as a whole because greater use of new equipment will make workers more efficient.

[CindyDale]

3. Even construction is slowed by the time it takes to get the "materials"

to go into the building. I wonder how much of what goes into the buildings is imported.

[TWiley]

4. Where will the income come from to buy these houses

It seems to me that one would have to support the other.

[GumboYaYa]

6. Another fact that bears mentioning is that the average age of

a member of the carpenters union is around 50. In St. Louis there is actually movement for the unions and the construction companies to work together to train new carpenters.

[K-W]

8. Does this include places like Iraq?

Arent US construction companies heavily involved in reconstruction and international development deals with the world bank and stuff?

What I mean is this what is feuling that industry and those jobs?

[CindyDale]

Low mortgage rates

have made housing a sellers' market in most places.

Here in Florida, it takes 6 months to get a new house built, though, because of how long it takes to get the materials.

It's been that way before, though, I know during the Korean War, for example, it was probably worse, and even 30 years ago you had to wait to get a house built in Florida, too.

[CindyDale]

10. Oh, another thing

is that investors are getting into real estate now because bank accounts pay low interest and there is a lack of confidence in the stock market.

[Inland]

11. Prisons and football stadia.

[applegrove]

12. A number of things.

I didn't read the full article - just worried responces on this thread. So I thought I'd answer with my best guess. Though I am not a professional, i have been thinking and reading about the economies.

1. We could be in deflation right now except for the war & the oil shocks. We were almost in deflation after the bubble. Greenspan was worried about it. Deflation is the norm in Asia right now - as they adjust to the emerging giants India & China and it has been this way in Asia for 10 years or more. So deflation could be commonplace in the U.S. in the next little while. Think of the emerging markets in Asia. Think how America is not an emerging market but a mature one. Low levels of deflation are not horrid; they just mean that not much is going on. I doubt that anyone will ever allow high levels of deflation. But stores like Wal Mart are lowering prices eh? And that lowers wages and prices across the country.

2. Stagflation will not happen again because the fed keeps the interest rates high enough that they stop the economy cold if it looks like it is over-heating, which it is not. They let the economy overheat in the 1970s and with oil prices and Vietnam War costs, on top of a vibrant economy, inflation went through the roof and stagnation took place. We are heading in the complete opposite direction.

3. Boomers are hitting their financial peak so more houses are owned. Also do the rich today seem to have 3rd homes or is it just me?

4. All industries will face competition from the internet & TV. Look at the travel industry - they don't get to book many flight anymore. Same with psychology, decorating, and on and on. As boomers grow into their golden years and younguns have access to the internet and tv, where products like 'decorating' get repackaged and sold as entertainment. More competition lowers # of customers so prices will come down. Deflation will continue. Ageing boomer buy garden plants and second homes. They don't buy clothes.

5. A non-hawk government could have invested in roads, infrastructure, education, preparing Americans to take on the world over the internet, etc. to stave off inflation. Choices!! I hope to high hell peace in the Middle East pans out. Because if not - these hawks wasted a ton of money keeping the economy rumbling along - with absolutely nothing to show for it.

Unless you were rich or a corporation.