How big of an Invasion Force would be neccessary for Iran (Draft?)

[Sandpiper]

Iraq is a country of 25 million people. We have approximately 150,000 soldiers there and they have their hands full.

Iran is a country of 70 million people. An invasion/occupation would likely necessitate about 3 times the number of personnel that we have committed in Iraq.

Thinking out loud, it seems like there would be no possible way that we could wage war with Iran without bringing back the draft.

Thoughts?

[Massacure]

1. The U.S. has 1.4 million people in the military.

That is 2/3 of the 2.1 million that were in the military in 1989.

It would take a while to recruit and train 700,000 new people though. It would be easier to pull troops from Germany and South Korea, plus extend the tour of duty.

[ktowntennesseedem]

2. Iran doesn't have nearly as many WMD's as Iraq.

I think it would be even easier than Iraq was!


(returning Sarcasm to "off" now)

[tritsofme]

3. 500k at least

You would think, that's how big the initial Gulf War force was back in 1991 IIRC.

I would imagine any war in Iran would have a much more crippling bombing campaign before ground troops moved in, ala Dresden.

This administration and Iran scare me very much, not only the Americans that would die, but the millions of innocent Iranians.

[leesa]

12. Of course Iran has an airforce. Iraq had no defenses at all. The US can

only manage to attack the weakest countries. It's why we ignore N Korea.

We would be fighting the entire country and probably Syria as well, since they know they are next.

[tritsofme]

17. Iran has an airforce

But nothing close to rivaling the USAF.

In a protracted air campaign, the Iranian air force probably wouldn't be a factor for more than a few weeks, if even that.

[Kansas Wyatt]

4. Bush is now signing deferrals for....

Any members eligible for the draft in the Bush family. Then he is signing deferrals for the children of his elite base. Those connected to his operatives are next. Those who have only signed loyalty cards may or may not get deferrals, depending on how close the shit comes to Bush after the shit hits the fan.

[Pepperbelly]

14. how do you know that?

That would be pretty damning. Where did you get this info?

[Kansas Wyatt]

20. George W. Bush is NOT unpredictable...

Does anyone really believe that Shrub is going to let anyone in his family, his elite base's families, or his ops who helped rig things for him, go into harm's way to be maimed or killed? The idiots who signed "loyalty cards" may or may not be expendable, depending on whether or not Bush can USE them for something.

Welcome to the 'Bush Dynasty of Uncivilization.'

[Pepperbelly]

22. so you're just kinda figuring this out for yourself?

Cool.

Just wondered if it was sourced anywhere.

[Kansas Wyatt]

5. Bush is now signing deferrals for....

Sorry, it posted it twice.

[artemisia1]

6. Why assume invasion?

Why assume that any war (or attack on) with Iran will include invasion and occupation? I think something along the lines of the 1999 Serbian air campaign is far more likely. Even Bush (or his advisers, at least) can do the math on this one. Even in a Rumsfeldian perfect dream scenario, there simply are not enough available. No, while an attack on Iran is unfortunately a very real possibility, an invasion, IMHO, is far less likely.

[leesa]

13. It will end up with forces on the ground. If we try to invade them by air

and don't lose alot of jets this time...remember Iran has an air force and they are not defenseless like Iraq was, they will come after us in Iraq if necessary.

[Grey Ranks]

7. Draft, definitely

Our Defense policy is centered around two wars at once, one ground one air war. The reason troop level in Iraq are where they are at is because to deploy troops longer the US would have to accept a lot higher combat casualties. The Bush administration cannot afford the public opinion loss from high combat casualties.

If we invaded, Iranians would be in the street to greet us, with AKs and Molotovs. It would be a country united, against us. 70 Million armed people. All of whom go to weapons training in High School, I heard that from several Iranians.

I do not think that Bush is willing to risk the casualties or the blow back from a Draft to invade Iran. In the short term anyways. I think if anything we will see air strikes, but not prolonged. We can't afford millions of Iranians coming into Iraq to fight us.

I hope that there will be no conflict, and we can learn to live and let live.

[Callboy]

8. confusha say...

do not invade a coundtry who has a more peoples than you have a bullets......

[punpirate]

9. I don't think it's just a matter of the overall...

... population. It's about available forces. The US has perhaps 300,000 troops capable of putting boots on the ground (including the Marines). Many of those are tied up in other locations, but I suppose in an emergency, all of those could be diverted, leaving skeleton forces elsewhere.

The really raw fact in this is that Iran has, between regular forces, national guard regulars and irregulars, about 900,000 personnel, according to the most recent estimates from Jane's. Iran still has operational equipment, as well, including planes comparable to ours, such as F-14s (although there is some question about how long those planes could fly because of a shortage of spares). They're going to be able to put up a larger fight and a longer fight, and extract much greater losses on US troops than Iraq. And, given the money the Russians stand to make from building reactors for them, the Russians will likely be selling them arms to withstand a US attack, as well.

That's why I think this will be limited to an air attack, either by Israel or a follow-on US attack after an Israeli attack. The White House will try to spin this as defensive, and not requiring ground attack, and will hope that Iran will respond in the same way as Iraq in 1981--with diplomatic complaints.

Cheers.

[Goldmund]

10. Add to that that the terrain is different.

Iran is mostly hilly and mountainous, while Iraq is mostly a flat desert.

Oh, and that Iran actually has a real army not weakened by a recently fought war with the US and universal sanctions.

[Strelnikov_]

11. 2.5 Million.

Yes, that's right. 2.5 Million.

Past military doctrine held that a 20:1 to 30:1 ratio is required for 'stability' operations following an invasion of a hostile nation.

Consider that using the above ratio, 850,000 would have been required for Iraq. For Iraq, Gen. Shinseki probably considered that the Kurdish areas would supply forces, and the Shiite areas would require a smaller commitment than the Sunni areas, thus he arrived at a figure of 500,000 for Iraq, just before he was cut off at the knees.

There will be no 'safe' areas in Iran.

That said, any 'invasion' of Iran will be limited to the 100 mi. arc of flat land in the SW corner adjacent to Iraq that contains nearly all of their oil reserves. A line of resistance will be set up at the foot of the Zagros Mtns., and for the next five years the nightly news will carry stories of our heroic troops manning the Cheney line.

[Zynx]

15. Million soldiers, minimum

It's really a huge undertaking and well beyond what we're actually capable of at the moment. And its not just a matter of a draft - it would take years to put the number of formations together that we would need, even if we drafted all the troops.

[Grey Ranks]

18. Not True

We went from a few hundred thousand to 16 million in World War II. Our military is set up to grow big fast.

Even in WWII we didn't tap our full industrial, economic, or manpower potentials. Our military might isn't just our technology, it is our awesome potential.

[Rapcw]

16. I would say atleast 1.5 million

That's counting just actual soldiers

[masaka___]

19. widespread draft dodging

This time around, far more people would dodge rather than go.

[AngryAmish]

21. Why would we want to invade?

I mean the whole thing. It would make no sense. We would just go in, grab the oil, declare the oil fields part of Iraq ( a la Saddam) and man the border. If there are any concentrations of troops/people, destroy them.

Invading Iran is insane. So I suppose it must be done.