Field Poll: Cruz maintains 5-point lead even without Ueberroth

[CMT]

The exit of GOP businessman Peter Ueberroth doesn't alter the preference standings in the race for Governor (second ballot).

With Uebberoth:
Bustamante: 30%
Schwarzenegger: 25%
McClintock: 13%
Ueberroth: 5%

Without Uebberoth:
Bustamante: 32%
Schwarzenegger: 27%
McLintock: 14%

So with Uebberoth out, Cruz and Arnold both gain two-points and McClintock gains 1-point.

Now if McClintock exited then Arnold might gain enough to overtake Cruz. But so far, McClintock says he is in it for the long haul and he is running a strong third, and his supporters are more conservative and don't trust Arnold.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2090.pdf

[RobertSeattle]

1. I think Cruz should mention Uebberoth

Perhaps raise the possibility of including Uebberoth in his administration, if the recall succeeds.

[David__77]

2. Ueberroth wasn't mainly drawing GOP support.

He was as GOPer running as an "independent." Of course his platform was rightist, but I don't think it was perceived that way. After Cruz firms up Democratic support, he'll have to switch tracks and go after independents and moderate Republicans who may be uncomfortable with Arnie's checkered past and inexperienced present.

[jos]

3. Thanks

Interesting. I still think Cruz should be doing better than he is. Right-of-center is still outpolling left-of-center, 41-37, which shouldn't be happenig in a state like California. My conclusion is that a lot of the undecided are Democrats, and independent leaning Democrats, who are voting yes on the recall, but are undecided between Cruz and Arianna/Camjeo in the replacement ballot.

[CMT]

4. I think you are right

I think lots of dems are undecideds and hopefully they will "come home". Another area Cruz should work on is, surprisingly, the Latino vote. He is leading there by only ten-points, but 20% are undecided. He needs to get out in Latino neighborhoods and get his message out.

[jos]

6. True

Only getting 36% of the Hispanic vote is puzzling.

However, as long as McClintock stays in the race, it's his race to lose. Arnold can't break out of the mid-20s, and Cruz has more room for growth.

[Frances]

5. What would happen to McClintock

in the future if he dropped out now?

I think he would lose credibility with his base. Now if he loses, he will still be seen as a man who can be trusted to be true to his principles.

Issa and Uberroth didn't have as much to lose in the future by dropping out as McClintock would.

If I were McClintock I would be asking Arnold to drop out for the good of the Republican party.

[CMT]

7. if McLintock got out

the Field Poll yesterday said if McLintock dropped out Arnold would take a narrow 33-31 percent lead, statistical dead heat.

[dfong63]

8. did it really say that?

the Field Poll yesterday said if McLintock dropped out Arnold would take a narrow 33-31 percent lead, statistical dead heat.

did the poll really give that result? that would imply that McClintock's supporters would all go to Arnie. i don't believe that would happen.

[David__77]

9. Many wouldn't go to Arnie.

There is a strategic disadvantage for the GOP is McClintock were to drop out. That's my opinion. It will be interesting to see what happens at the GOP convention this weekend. Arnie refuses to debate McClintock there. Indeed, Arnie said that if it were McClintock ahead of Arnie, Arnie wouldn't drop out. This incredibly undercuts the moderates' argument for McClintock to drop out.

[David__77]

10. He will be a "has-been."

If he drops out, he's a goner in terms of the future. If he caves to the "moderate" leadership, it's over for him. I actually think he would decimate Arnie in a debate. It would be interesting. OBviously I'm not a rightist, but I can appreciate the rightist dilemma. Arnie will seriously undercut the GOP right if he slithered into office. Remember, it was Pete Wilson who raised taxes bigtime in 1991. It was Wilson's judicial appointees who struck down the abortion parental consent law. The Wilson-Arnie types are very dedicated to abortion rights, though I suspect for Malthusian reasons. To top it off, Arnie is pro-gay. Being gay, I'm glad about that, and it would be hilarious to see Arnie issuing gay pride proclamations and so forth. Not that I support him in any way.