Question: If we attack Iran how do you think it will happen?

[Lone_Star_Dem]

For the sake of my question, let’s say they've set a plan to try to attack Iran within the next few months. “With the military we’ve got.”

I'm interested in knowing your opinions on what type of attack you'd expect to happen. How do you think we'll start it? What role will Israel play? How do you expect Iran to retaliate? How will China and Russia react?

Does anyone have any idea how to stop them this time? If not, let me suggest you get thinking cap on. Because for every bit as insane as this is, it feels familiar doesn't it? Bush is working excessively hard trying to get his domestic issues settled quickly. That's not like him. The Rove spin machine has been pumping out propaganda for weeks. Have you noticed the non-to subtle increase we're seeing daily? Is it feeling familiar yet?

Here's what I'm seeing. All of a sudden, the Taliban wants to make nice with Afghanistan. Hallelujah! Afghanistan is at peace. Its total BS but they tell the soldiers to pack up and get ready for their next war. It's time to head to the Afghanistan/Iran border. Rummy tells them how they did a fine job however, there's more tyranny they must fight. After all, they're still breathing. Osama-whatever-his-name-was, you can just forget about him. Bush sure has.

OK, we now have some warm bodies freed up. Their next war is Iran. Hmm, we’re still a bit short. Well we do have a few in Germany that we can call in. Good thing we’ve been training them in Afghanistan off and on for the past few months. Oh, and as luck would have it, we just happen to have a few good men right on the other side of Iran in Iraq. Yes, were all set on the ground. It's about as good a situation as a neocon warmonger could ever imagine. The reality is we’re going to be painfully low on troops, once again. But, hey, if they scare the stupid Americans enough with the terror!© everywhere campaign they won't notice.

Enter stage left: The US Navy! Enter stage right: The US Air Force!

Bomb! - Bomb! Bomb! Bomb! -- Bomb! - Bomb! - Bomb! Bomb!

Now tell me, am I over reacting? I honestly feel he's setting the stage again and planning on doing it soon. The worst part is I talked to a soldier whom I love tonight, he's stationed in Afghanistan and he agrees with me.

[applegrove]

1. They will send in a very large, red haired, traditionally clad mullah

who will say things to them like "When I act, I create my own reality."

ROTFLMAO Ahhhhhhhhh - I can't get over that!

[beyurslf]

2. All you have to do is take Bush Admin quotes from 200-2003 and take

Traq out and put Iran in.... They are saying the EXACT same things.
We will be at war with Iran by Sp 06 if not sooner.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

5. The person I was talking to in Afghanistan tonight

Was seriously convinced we were going to attack within the next six months. He scared the hell out of me.

[Strelnikov_]

23. Iran Is Going To Begin Selling Their Oil For Euros, Just Like Iraq

was, before we invaded.

WMD as the excuse, petrodollars and access to oil reserves as the real reason.

Same shit, different day.

[radfringe]

56. Now that Syria and Iran are "allies"

the stage is set

Israel will bomb an Iranian facility which will most likely bring about a retaliation strike either by Iran or by Syria acting on behalf of Iran

then General "YEEE-HAWWW" bush* will lead the charge to go to Israel's "defense". Troops in Afghanistan will head to Iran, and those in Iraq will be dispersed to Iran and Syria

The invasion of Iraq based on lies about WMDs isn't sitting well with people -- nor is the idea of "pre-emptive" strikes

but retaliatory strikes because we were directly attacked or going to help out an friend is a different matter -- this is a "noble" cause

Iran and Syria know that any "pre-emptive" attacks on their part will bring down the wrath of nations upon them. However, if they are attacked first -- they may feel that this gives them the right to defend themselves -- which they would if it we were living in a real world and not a bush*-world.

Look beyond the "terra" threat -- currently we are building the Caspian gas pipeline in Afghanistan. Iraq already has pipelines going into Syria. Israel is on the Mediterranean Sea. Gas - Oil - Petroleum transport costs would be greatly reduced if the tankers used the Mediterranean Sea as opposed to having to go around Africa. SO connect the "dots" -- Gas - Oil - Petroleum go from Afghanistan, thru Iran, Iraq, Syria into Israel.

[bush_is_wacko]

3. He's already DONE it! The Prime Minister that was just car bombed

to death was NOT a Syrian attack. Mark my words, it came from the WH! Syria and Iran have already announced they have combined their efforts. They only have to attempt one little thing now and BANG! We have a war! don't get me wrong here, I DO think people in DC are trying to stop him (bush) and I HOPE they will be successful.

Those ethics rules weren't changed JUST for DeLay! The investigation leaks and has to be made public and they have two months to finish it up and indict. They damn well better have the smoking gun at that point!

Sounds crazy? Read up on how many were trying to hide the Nixon/Agnew from the public. Their careers and probably their LIVES are at stake. They aren't stupid enough to go after him until ALL the evidence is in place and even then I don't think * is going to go quietly. He is INSANE!

[Lone_Star_Dem]

6. I dismiss nothing as crazy these days.

I've learned not to doubt the depth of evil this Administration is capable of committing.

You're 100% right about the ethics rules. Why let something like that go to waste when it could be so handy!

[applegrove]

4. They just do a 'search & replace' on the War Plan and replace q with n

[Lone_Star_Dem]

8. No, this is not a beaten down Country with no allies.

I'm afraid Iran will be a bit tougher to chew than Iraq.

[applegrove]

12. I was kidding. America doesn't have the troops.

[purduejake]

7. It will begin with an air assault...

and with missiles fired from the Navy. Included in this initial attack may be nuclear bunker busters (who knows if we have them?). I think it will be mostly an air war with a single goal of attacking the nuclear plant and ousting the current regime. Of course it will be replaced with a regime that is even more hostile, but that is good for BushCo.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

10. I could see that

How do you think Iran will retaliate? Any thoughts on Russia or China's part in all of this? Syria?

I can't shake the feeling that *IF* he's stupid enough to do this, (I'm afraid he is) it's going to be a worse case of overstepping then in Iraq.

[jjtss]

26. Iran will retaliate by bombing Israel

[Ready4Change]

9. USA psyche is clearly being prepped.

Anti-Iran rhetoric is building.

As a lead in, my prediction for Iraq was that the attack would progress slower than it actually did, with higher US losses and more major battles. But then I said the most loyal Republican Guard would melt into the populace, and then the REAL fighting would start, as those loyalist began fighting with guerilla tactics using hidden weapons caches.

To Iran. I don't see ground forces being freed up from Afghanistan or Iraq any time soon. That leaves either air strikes or another 9/11-Pearl Harbor style disaster to shock and awe US citizens into accepting the draft.

The latter would most likely work. However, for it to "occur" would most likely mean it had been allowed or made to occur, and we have LIHOP or MIHOP all over again. I'm in denial over seeing that happen.

That leaves air strikes. Today I heard someone say it was predicted that Iran would have the bomb within 6 months. That gives us an outside date. Now it's just up to how quickly administration propoganda can work people up to a froth.

Once froth is achieved, I'd expect a 3 day campaign to yank the Iranian command and control rug out. Power sources, communications centers, airstrips and major transportation hubs all get hit. After the first night the majority of Iranian CC is down, and the remaining 2 days are mop ups.

What happens after that is up to Iranian and world reactions. If this administration would lay proper groundwork I'd see no problems there. However, this administration is too arrogant to lay such groundwork. I lay 50/50 odds that Britain will refuse to participate, and 50/50 odds that another fairly major nation will support IRAN. China or Russia are my top choices there. They'll arrive too late for the main show, but will start diplomatic saber rattling which will have a real chance of expanding into wider warfare.

So I see 50% chance we'll be alone, and a further 50% we'll be fighting an IRANIAN coalition. in a war that may turn into WW3 and with the USA isolated.

All this, BTW, is but one reason I voted Kerry.

[youthere]

11. Not only anti Iran rhetoric

but if you notice they are bringing out the old "increased threat of terra attack" $20 says we hit "CODE ORANGE" by the end of June.
What a F*ckin joke.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

19. I can also see a possibility of your last scenario.

I don't expect to see much support of our next attempt at war. Blair is already worried about his political future. I think China and Russia are going to be providing Iran with weapons over the next few months. Beyond that, I'm not sure what role they will end up playing.

I don't think we have an Administration that is capable of fighting a winning war. Too much ego and not enough strategical intelligence. In doing something like this we will be fighting on the ground in Afghanistan, Iraq and to a lesser degree Iran. I think we will attempt to bomb Iran off the map for our opening act. They've learned that they can kill civilians and for the most part get away with it.

Even if they do decide to instate a draft there is a lapse period while you train new soldiers. What are they planning on doing during that?

[Ready4Change]

29. Planning isn't their strong point.

They are planning for a flags and flowers offensive. Surely the Iranians will welcome the approach of democracy with open arms after witnessing events in Iraq?

(/sarcasm)

[Lone_Star_Dem]

41. Yes, I'm sure we've earned quite a reputation as "liberators". n/t

[Sterling]

13. Just like Hitler expect them to make more dramatic moves the

further into this they get. They are emboldened by the fact they have gotten away with so much so far. Expect them to take advantage of the next 4 years to commit us to their agenda to the point there is no turning back.

Now that we have a foothold in the region and considering this next round may involve two countries at once the IDF may get involved.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

24. Emboldened Warmongers is not a good combination.

Even though I feel this is all but inevitable, a part of me still can't believe it's going to happen.

[Dirk39]

14. Since 5:45 a. m. we have been returning the fire

Since 5:45 a. m. we have been returning the fire and from now on bombs will be met with bombs. Whoever fights with poison gas will be fought with poison gas. Whoever departs from the rules of humane warfare can only expect that we shall do the same. I will continue this struggle, no matter against whom, until the safety of the USA and its rights are secured.

In my talks with Iran statesmen I discussed the ideas which you recognise from my last speech to the Congress. No one could say that this was in any way an inadmissible procedure or undue pressure. I then naturally formulated at last the American proposals, and I must once more repeat that there is nothing more modest or loyal than these proposals. I should like to say this to the world. I alone was in the position to make such proposals, for I know very well that in doing so I brought myself into opposition to millions of Americans. These proposals have been refused. Not only were they answered first with mobilisation, but with increased terror and pressure against our American compatriots and with a slow strangling of the Free City of ...-economically, politically, and in recent weeks by military and transport means.

For four months I have calmly watched developments, although I never ceased to give warnings. In the last few days I have increased these warnings. I informed the Iran Ambassador three weeks ago that if Iran continued to send notes in the form of ultimata, if Iran continued its methods of oppression against the freedom-loving people, and if on the Iran side an end was not put to Customs measures destined to ruin trade, then the Home of the freedom loving Braves could not remain inactive. I left no doubt that people who wanted to compare the Americans of to-day with the former liberal wacky American Democrats would be deceiving themselves.

An attempt was made to justify the oppression of the Americans by claiming that they had committed acts of provocation. I do not know in what these provocations on the part of women and children consist, if they themselves are maltreated, in some cases killed. One thing I do know-that no great Power can with honour long stand by passively and watch such events.

This night for the first time Iran regular soldiers fired on our own territory. Since 5:45 a. m. we have been returning the fire, and from now on bombs will be met with bombs.

For six years now I have been working on the building up of the American defences. Over 90 milliards have in that time been spent on the building up of these defence forces. They are now the best equipped and are above all comparison with what they were before. My trust in them is unshakable. When I called up these forces and when I now ask sacrifices of the American people and if necessary every sacrifice, then I have a right to do so, for I also am to-day absolutely ready, just as we were formerly, to make every personal sacrifice.

Speech by Adolf Hitler to the Reichstag on September 1, 1939, starting World War II.

http://www.geocities.com/iturks/html/hitlerspeech1.html

(I changed a few words, I admit it)

Hello from Germany,
Dirk

[Lone_Star_Dem]

22. Dirk, the sad part is how well that suits Bush.

I don't know how so many people here could be so blind.

[Ladyhawk]

44. At least Hitler was eloquent.

:eyes:

[Lone_Star_Dem]

48. Good point

Could you picture Bush trying to get those words out of his mouth? I wonder what it would end up sounding like when he finished mangling it?

[independentchristian]

15. Probably something like this

Another terrorist attack to rally the public and give a boost to military enlistment "to get those bastards who did this to us" just like we saw after 9/11.

If that's not enough, then a draft because "we were attack and Americans need to sacrifice or our way of life is in trouble." Braindead people in this country will submit out of fear.

Isn't the finalized draft report supposed to be handed to Bush by the end of March according to the FY 2004 Selective Service System report?

Either way, if these idiots actually "invade" Iran with ground forces, that would be the dumbest move, the biggest military mistake ever!!!

[Lone_Star_Dem]

27. I don't even think they will bother to stage a terrorist attack

They've already harvested all the ones who are willing to play patriotic at the expense of their lives. They are now finding out that it's very difficult to get people to enlist when you're engaged in war. Their base is all for killing people, just not for getting killed. It's easy to supports Bush's war on terror, tyranny or whatever he's calling it today. It's a whole different thing to go get you butt shot off.

[Ladyhawk]

45. "Braindead people in this country will submit out of fear."

Would they again after being told that this might happen? I'm finding it hard to believe they would overreach like this, but dammit! The aggressive posturing is freaking me out.

Would they dare?

Would most Americans fall for it a second time?

[Lone_Star_Dem]

46. You just want to say it can't happen, don't you?

Yet at the same time we've learned not to assume intelligent human behavior from this Administration.

I'm seriously concerned about something that shouldn't even be an issue.

These are very strange days we live in.

[Ladyhawk]

58. Maybe.

It's just hard for me to believe they would try the exact same MO as they did with Iraq. You'd think they would try something less suspicious, wouldn't you?

Is the administration that stupid? I guess we'll find out, won't we?

The only thing I can think of that would consolidate power for them a second time is yet another terrorist attack on American soil. I would have to believe in MIHOP if that conveniently happens...but can they do that and get away with it? Sigh.

[DireStrike]

16. We will bomb one country, then "terrorists" will increase by the thousands

Oil will stop flowing completely.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

49. Honestly, how do they think we can handle number of terrorist

...this would create? We don't have enough troops to fulfill Bush's dreams.

[pres2032]

17. shut up dammit - I'll cut your mike, cut his mike!

[independentchristian]

25. That's exactly why if you go on the O'Really show

you actually go on his show and sit across the desk from him so that he can't cut your mic.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

28. It's her mic

I know how you feel, sweetie. I don't like it either. :hug:

[Strelnikov_]

18. Air Strike Before July, If They Are Going To Do It

The entire timetable is being driven by the date of fueling the reactor at Bushehr. Striking a fueled reactor is probably even more than Our Leader is willing to risk.

http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=7557363

Source: Russia, Iran May Sign Nuke Deal This Month

. . .were preparing to sign the accord . . . at the end of February."

The source said the first containers with fuel would be supplied about two months after signing.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-strikes.htm

Target Iran - Air Strikes

As some of the facilities are still under construction and not yet active the United States may have a window of opportunity that would allow it to destroy those locations without causing the environmental problems associated with the destruction of an active nuclear reactor.

The window of opportunity for disarming strikes against Iran will begin to close in 2005. It appears that the Uranium conversion facility in Esfahan will begin operation some time in 2005, as will the heavy water production plant at Arak. Barring further delays, the fuel for the reactor at Bushehr is also slated to be delivered in 2005, with reactor operations commencing some months after delivery. Significant Uranium enrichment could begin at Natanz in 2006, and plutonium production could begin at Arak by 2010.


They are not going to let Iran get nuclear capability. But after the Iraq debacle, they need to provoke Iran into attacking us first. All they need is a catalyst, and that catalyst is the Likud government in Israel. All the references to Israel taking ‘unilateral’ action in the prole feed media is just about laying the groundwork.

Here's the way I think it will play out.

Step 1) ‘Israel’ strikes Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

Step 2) Iran lash's out at US forces in gulf region. Look for the Kitty Hawk and John F. Kennedy steaming up and down the coast of Iran supporting operations, in harm's way.

Step 3) Our Leader goes in front of Congress, says that we are victims of an unprovoked attack, like Pearl Harbor, calls for a draft to raise sufficient military strength to deal with the rogue nation of Iran.

Step 4) Occupy SW corner of Iran, flatlands (tank country) where oil is. Brutally suppress any remaining opposition in Iraq with our new draftee legions to liberate them from the oppressive burden of oil wealth.

Step 5) Give massive contracts to Halliburton and other buddies to sell off the Iranian oil as 'reparations' for their dastardly attack.

Step 6a) The Oligarchs get rich.

Step 6b) The rest of us go broke or die trying to push through the Zagros mountains and occupy Iran. Of course, this part of the substep is not that important to the 'leadership'.

Ever wonder what Israel needs long range F-15's and 500 (just delivered) bunker buster bombs for? Bombing Gaza?

http://globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-strikes.htm

On 21 September 2004 Israel acknowledged that it was buying 500 BLU-109 bunker-buster bombs, which could be used to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. The bombs, which can penetrate more than 7 feet of reinforced concrete, are part of a $319 million package of air-launched bombs being sold to Israel under America's military aid program.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

30. You sound a lot like the person I was talking to earlier tonight.

He almost mirrored your comments. He also said that July was going to be the latest he expected it to happen.

[MsMagnificent]

20. Over my beaten, protesting body

...for what rhetoric NOW to go again to war?

They have no WMD. Their government, while not "American Free" (a highly qualified phrase these past 4 year) is not near as bad as Saddam's ...as if we really had a right to go in there for that reason anyway. They offer no imminent threat to us. Bin Laden is still in Pakistan or *gasp* Afghanistan!

Ummm I know I'm missing one of the various reasons that were given, at one time or another, of WHY we invaded Iraq... but I'm pretty sure it won't compare to Iraq.

So what, then, will the politicians in our United States actually HAVE for invading Iran?

GOOD reasons, mind you.


This is turning into bullshit, and WE HAVE TO STOP THE MADNESS.
How many wars must we wage until our lust for vengeance is sated? How many hundreds of thousands do we have to kill to avenge our 3000?

It's got to stop.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

31. I'm going to be right there with you.

They don't want Iran to have the same weapons that other Countries around them have. We are NOT the world police. It's not our place to take on these insane campaigns in the name of Bush.

I really just want to wake up and find out it was all a very bad dream.

[Hell in a Handbasket]

21. 'strategic airstrikes'

at least, that's how it'll start.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

34. In order to have enough troops to maintain "peace"

Aren't we going to have to blast Iran off the map? If we leave anyone alive they are not going to be happy with us. And we're not in a position to be able to police another country.

This is insane. I almost expect to hear the freaking roses story again. :cry:

[Hell in a Handbasket]

37. 'roses story'? eh? nt

[Hell in a Handbasket]

38. roses story? eh? nt

[MisterP]

39. that the Iraqis would throw flowers and candy at their liberators:

the line we were fed in the media and from the WH (Repubs are now denying it was ever said)

[Hell in a Handbasket]

47. oh, yeah....seems like a lifetime ago. nt

[egbtpl]

32. simple

Just tell Americans that we need to bomb Iran in order to avenge 9-11. Then, we start bombing once the media has repeated Bush's war mantra over and over.

We might need to allow another terrorist attack again, on say, the White House (of course Chimpy will have something scheduled in Florida on that day) - but hopefully it won't have to come to that.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

35. The thing is

Too many Americans won't care if we do eradicate all Iranians. What they don't understand is that the Iranians are not going to take it from us as nicely as the Iraqi's.

I like to take this moment to point out how poorly we've done in Iraq.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[mn9driver]

36. First, it won't happen.

Next, if the US did try it--which it won't--there would be no choice except to use airstrikes.

And they would be mostly ineffective, since the Iranian Nuke program is well dispersed and substantially underground.

But it would piss off the Iranians mightily and we could expect a retaliatory strike on Israel--even though the Israelis would probably not be directly involved.

And then won't we be having some fun? The rapture people would love it.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

43. I'm not convinced they won't do it.

I want to believe they won't, but this Administration has a lust for war and no ability to know their own limitations. That makes them far too volatile for me to be able to dismiss this.

[walldude]

40. Not over reacting at all..

The phrase "largest state sponsor of terrorism" has been ringing in my head for days.... and I don't watch television. All my news comes from alternative sources. They(the administration) get these buzz words and phrases out there and, even if it's to disagree, people are repeating them ad-nauseum, until it's like a really lame pop song you can't get out of your head. What worries me even more than in the run up to Iraq, is the constant discussion of nukes. There is already a large portion of American who would just love to see Bush drop a nuke on them. I just hope thats not what this is leading up to....

[Lone_Star_Dem]

42. There is a large portion of people who

...would be enthralled if he dropped a nuke.

What makes that scary is he knows that and he's one of them.

[DrWeird]

50. WWIII.

If there's a war, it will be an all out war. Iran's not just going to sit there and get bombed. If there's an all out war with Iran, that means they're going to hit Israel, and harder than Saddam did. If Israel and the United States attack Iran, Syria's not going to just stand around and watch. The first thing they'll target is Israels nuke facilities. Which means WMDs will be involved, Syria will gas Israel, Israel will nuke somebody. Of course, once that happens, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are going to get involved. Possibly Libya and Pakistan, now if it's Pakistan, then obviously India, and if India, then obviously China,then NK, etc.

Which is why my gut instinct is telling me all of this crap is just the Bush administration bluffing.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

51. You're post, while painting the grimmest picture, is the most comforting.

Would you do me a favor and have a talk with Bush? Just to make sure he understands the ramifications his actions could have. ;)

[LynnTheDem]

55. Don't forget, buh bye to every single one of the 150,000 US troops in Iraq

Coz they'd be among the first dead.

Followed up by every US sailor in the Gulf.

Just for starters.

[Swamp Rat]

52. You skipped "Operation Condiployment,"

where the lizard called "Rice" teleports to Tehran and gives them one last chance...

[Lone_Star_Dem]

53. Can we send her, hmm, can we, pllleeeaaassssee!

That's a striking likeness of her. Good work! ;)

[LynnTheDem]

54. If we tried to invade & occupy Iran we would get our asses kicked bad

We'd lose. Big time.

We couldn't draft enough troops to invade & occupy Iran.

[LynnTheDem]

57. Iran; A bridge too far? The weapon that could defeat the US in the Gulf.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article7147.htm

Plus the fact that there is no way possible for America to occupy Iran. We can't even occupy the third-world defenseless weak little nation of Iraq.