Iraq on the Brink of Civil War
Brad Odland
Lost in the shuffle of news was the certification of the Iraq election. Reports state that the Shiite Muslims have indeed gained control of the new Iraqi democracy. The Shiite's won a majority of the 275 national assembly seat. They will be responsible for drafting a new constitution and selecting a Prime Minister to lead the country. It is expect the race for Prime Minister is to be between two former Iraq exiles Ahmed Chalabi and apparent front runner Ibrahim al-Jafaari.
Ahmed Chalabi appears to be the hand picked leader. Picked by U.S. Given that the U.S. invaded and conquered Iraq it is no wonder Chalabi is in the running to head up the new Iraq. He was selected for a variety of reasons. One partly because he was a key source of intelligence on the WMD's Iraq possessed. Intelligence that led to the invasion. Though it is difficult to control who is selected as a leader in democratic process it seems that the Bush administration's initial desires of having Chalabi leading the pack appears to have come true. Despite, ironically, for a brief time Chalabi fell from grace with the U.S.. Chalabi's offices in Iraq were stormed by U.S. forces and records were seized . This was after it was disclosed that Chalabi had possibly been spying for Iran. Arrest warrants were issued for him and his son while they were out of the country. In a surprising turn around Chalabi stands to become the new leader of Iraq. All charges had been dropped and the CIA has done an about face on charges that he was a spy. Amazing as just a few weeks ago Chalabi was to be arrested and tourn over to interpol. Now Chalabi is on the road back to becoming the darling of Washington with his support in the recent elections.
Meanwhile despite the rosy outlook for the Bush Administration's quest for a free Iraq, today 30 Iraqis were killed when a bomb exploded outside of a mosque in Baghdad. With the low Sunni Muslim turnout in the election it is considered by many that the former baathist party extremists and Sunni's are fueling the continuing insurgency in Iraq. This situation is unstable at best and Iraq still teeters on all out civil war.
Chalabi's main opposition is Ibrahim al-Jafaari. His support comes from the conservative Dawas. Iraq becoming a Shia' state is still a real possibility as does Chalabi becoming yet another Saddam Hussien style leader as he has vowed to root out insurgents and stop the violence. How this can be without brutality remains to be seen. The fears that many in the west face is that the U.S. has done nothing more than offer Iraq another brutal dictator or a religious state at an enormous cost.
Little wonder why the news is reporting little on the outcome and future of Iraq. The Bloggers are focused on a boiling sex scandal now. While Americans are titillated by another White House scandal, the killing continues in Iraq with increasing ferocity as Shiites and Sunni's square off for control of Iraq. One via the democratic process the other with bombs.
Shiite leader Aziz al-Hakim spoke shortly before today's blast and called for Shiite unity.
As control of Iraq security is relinquished to Iraqi security forces the slippery slope of another brutal regime is in the making. Either it be from the leadership of Chalabi, al-Jafaari or dark horse Shiite leader Aziz al-Hakim. President Bush's pipe dream of a broadly supported, diverse secular democracy in Iraq is far from reality. Certianly the first steps are the most dangerous and if peace can be brokered between insurgents and the new Iraqi nation then democracy will have a good chance in Iraq. Now, however, with the U.S. forces showing no signs of leaving, Fallujah in ruins and tensions between religious groups mounting it appears that the chaos that is Iraq will certainly continue for sometime.
Flashback:
http://www.dkosopedia.com/index.php/Bush_and_Chalabi
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
