Has Dean peaked?

[BigBigBigBear]

Heard this today.

Clark was criticized for waiting so long to announce - in the end, it may benefit him. Dean can't use an outsider status indefinitely if he remains the front runner. The process has its own aging cycle - Clark is still an unknown to the electorate at large. Dean's been on TV and the newsmagazine covers.

This is not a substantive comparison - I like them both. But there's a certain "Freshness date" component to this process that's gotta be hurting Dean these days.

Can I expect a good flaming over this post?

[AWD]

1. Never mind his numbers

The poll numbers rising, the money donations rising, the meetup numbers rising.

Those don't matter. What matters is some guy hasn't declared yet, and that's why he's going to win.

on edit - ignore what you heard...believe your own eyes. We've been lied to as a country for so long, you can't believe it without self-verification anymore.

[newsguyatl]

17. ummmm, yeah,,,,sure,,,, errr, he's peakin too soon, yeah

:eyes:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Nope.

He'll peak in November 2004.

Look for a pre-peak in March 2003.

[Pastiche423]

4. But Dean will totally peak

in January 2005.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

7. I fear Dean will peak On Nov 2, 2004

That's half my problem with him. The other half is the fact he's a Rockefeller Republican.

[VermontDem2004]

14. What did he do as a Vermont Governor he did

that was so Republican? Vermont is the only state I know of that has recognized Civil Unions with the signing of the Civil Unions Bill, he won the Paul Wellstone Award for something he done that was very pro-labor, he balanced the budget in a somewhat liberal way by raising taxes, but I guess it's republican to reduce spending which is what Dean did, he had one of the best health care state plans in the entire country, I can go on.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

8. Getting all fucking technical on me.

Lol.

[frank frankly]

6. you are correct!

very fucking funny

[RobertSeattle]

3. Has the asking of "Has Dean Peaked" peaked?

Seems like we get a thread like this every frickin day.

(Not a personal attack - just an observation)

[poskonig]

10. Dean's campaign has been pronounced dead over and over again.

Yet the numbers keep getting higher. And the attacks keep him in the news cycle.

[FlashHarry]

5. I dunno, dude, but I'm peakin' right now!

The colors! The sounds! The textures! It's beautiful, man!

**meanwhile, back on Earth** No, Dean hasn't 'peaked.' None of the candidates have. It's way too early. We'll see how they're running, come December.

Considering where he started and where he has come, I'd say Dean's got a pretty savvy staff. Don't count him out just yet.

[poskonig]

9. Quick Analysis:

Dean still has his Borg Collective, is polling well in the primary states he needs to win, but most importantly, has that Q3 15 million going into the seventh inning. Plus Dean still has the same talented campaign staff.

Clark, despite the "draft" ads, is at 2-3% in Iowa and NH. Even if he gets the 15-20% undecided, he still has to chip into Dean's 38% and Kerry's 26% in NH, for example. A similar situation exists in Iowa.

If Dean does lose, Gephardt will be the guy that beats him. If Gephardt can win Iowa, his odds are very good in SC, Michigan, and Oklahoma. And a Clark run only insures this, since a Clark candidacy doesn't even touch Gephardt's voting base, i.e. working class voters more concerned about putting bread on the table than Bush's silly wars.

[VermontDem2004]

11. I seen Clark on tv much more then Dean

not because the media picks and chooses their candidate, no, because Clark is making headlines much like Dean is.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

12. who else

can't wait until Sept. 30, or shortly thereafter when donation $$ are reported? Heh.

[poskonig]

13. I hope they bring out the bat one last time.

Lieberman's attacks really have me juiced up!

[Demobrat]

15. It will be up towards the end of the month.

On the 20th I believe, but don't quote me.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

16. batter up!

Can't wait!

[Enraged American]

18. I like Dean.

He's brave enough to go against his party's elite. No matter what you say about him and no matter whether the American people will be too afraid to vote for him, he'll be remembered as a man of integrity (quite unlike McGovern, despite what the GOP says, who was a hypocrite who voted for the Gulf of Tonkin resolution).

Clark looks really good, but can someone tell me how he will be able to succeed in the primaries if he has few or any political, financial, and union connections? I think, though my heart is with Dean, he would have a better chance against Bush than any other candidate; but the question is whether he has a chance against his fellow Democrats.

And what is a Rockefeller Republican?

[uptohere]

19. I'd say more like peaking or approaching that

with a peak in Oct or Nov. We already know that the others were planning on fall being their kickoff period.

What will he have to say in a month ? Two months ?

What have the others learned that they can use to distinguish themselves favorably ?

There is a danger jumping out. It limits your options and expands theirs and puts a big old bulls eye right between your eyes.

But all this assumes that the others can craft a message that resonates better.

That could be a big assumption. We'll see in January.

[tedoll78]

20. Ask this question again on September 30th.

When the 3rd Quarter numbers are coming in. The media will be clamoring for him to appear on their shows. More newspapers will have him on their front pages. More glowing magazine articles will be written. The first week or so in October will be another victory lap for Dean.. proof that not only was the 2nd Quarter not a fluke, but also that he was able to transform some of that quarter's big money into good numbers. Maybe we'll even get a brief glimpse at his competitors' frustrated faces?

It's a huge deal for an outsider to break a popular sitting president's fundraising record. Dean's goal right now is to get to September 30th without screwing-up, and it appears that he's passing this test with flying colors. Some say he's peaking. I say he's on auto-pilot for another 3 weeks.

Regardless, this strategy is working amazingly well.

[CWebster]

21. Apparently...

...he peaks every gosh darn day.

[LuminousX]

22. He may have reached A peak

and he may slip into a valley and start climbing again. We are a long ways away. He can't continually be climbing.

[unfrigginreal]

23. Nope...

Dean is looking better everyday...looks more like Clark may have peaked to me, or in other words missed his opportunity.

Unfortunately, it looks like the DLC is ready to tear the party apart though to try to torpedo Dean's campaign and ultimately, they may succeed in the same way they did when they ran their "Democrats for Nixon" campaign.

[madfloridian]

24. Yep, Dean's all done, all finished.

Clark has been able to avoid debates and the pressures so he can announce when he decides. Dean is finished, all over. Poor guy.

[BigBigBear]

25. Wow

Ask a simple question and the partisans chew you to munge around here.

Sorry I asked, folks. I'll be careful not to interrupt the parade next time.

(Sheesh.)


I do worry about overexposure, and I do worry about the dismissive confidence ANYONE's followers exude about 2004.

I like Dean, but I'm happy to say I haven't committed my vote yet. I know how worried you were. :rolleyes:

[madfloridian]

26. Which are you, two bigs or three?

First post is three. This one is two.

[BigBigBear]

27. That's

one account for work, and the other at home.

[madfloridian]

28. Thanks.

:hi:

[MrPrax]

29. Well if NO Dean?

Then the democrats will have to vote GOP again...
He peaked at the same time his Viagra prescription ran out...
Democrats are being played...

Two types of DU'ers
Those that watch TV
and those that don't

And so the real question is whether you want to vote for people stuck with PeasantVision

[bluestateguy]

30. Risky strategy

Waiting and waiting for Dean to "peak" may be risky. Momentum is everything in the nominating process. If that is the strategy of the other candidates and the DNC establishment they may find themselves waiting all the way up to the Boston Convention for Dean to "peak". Many DNC establishment types felt the same way about Jimmy Carter in 1976, though his popularity certainly began to collapse a year after he had been elected president.

[stickdog]

31. Obviously, Dean has peaked.

Nobody is signing up on his website or sending him money anymore.

Nobody's volunteering for him or coming out to see him speak anymore.

Well, it was a McFun ride while it lasted ...

[Lexingtonian]

32. I wouldn't count Clark in

He's quite clearly running for something like Veep for candidates that have insufficient "credibility on foreign affairs", whatever that phantasmagora is. Alternatively, he's running for a Cabinet position or Bremer's job as Viceroy Of Iraq, or just maybe he's just running in order to give Powell and the Joint Chiefs some serious bouts of heartburn. Bottom line: IMHO he doesn't really have the stuff needed- ideological take or experience- for domestic power politics as a Democrat.

About Dean peaking...I think he is, not in absolute numbers but as percentage of the Democratic electorate he's closing in on a ceiling. Basically, if you have been following Dean in any significant way and aren't convinced yet, I suspect you're not going to be in time for the primaries.

I previously guesstimated that ceiling at 30%, but polling just showed Dean at 38% in NH- maybe a blip, maybe a temporary overshoot of his real support, maybe permanent or yet to grow further. Maybe the significant thing to point out about numbers from that state is that NH has less than 2% minority voters and Iowa has few minority voters as well. The national average is nearly 30% (although minorities are 35% of the population, many Hispanics are too young to vote and many older ones just don't) though closer to 15% in most Blue States.

We'll all be watching the numbers, I'm sure.