Johnny Gosh/ Jeff Gannon/ James Guckert/ James Gannon

[Quixote1818]

What is the probability that Johnny Gosh delivered papers for James Gannon and that not be a connection to Jeff Gannon? It just seems too coincidental to me. Is their a mathematician who can run the probability that this would occur? Think about it:

Jeff Gannon, James Gannon, James Guckert. Two Guckerts and two James! Seems like the probability of this would be extremely low. I truly think this is the best lead on this so far no question about it. Does James Guckert have any other connections to James Gannon beyond the Des Moines News Paper? How about since James Gannon started working with USA Today?


http://rigorousintuition.blogspot.com/2005/02/crazy-yes-but-crazy-enough-to-be-true.html

[BuyingThyme]

1. I did the calculation...

The chance that a guy might deliver newspapers to somebody with a different last name than his own: 100%

The chance that somebody, somewhere shares a last name with one of two people: 100%

The chance of being named James: Pretty good.

[Quixote1818]

2. I have never met anyone with the name Gannon in my life.

You might want to re-calculate.

[BuyingThyme]

3. The calculation is correct.

[Quixote1818]

5. What if I changed the name to Chambers or Sims or Barkley?

OK smarty pants, go find me someone connected to Gannon with the last name of Chambers. Not only should they be named Chambers but lets make them a reporter just like Gannon is. I will give you twenty names and you may get one or two hits but the probability is really only around 5% at best! The probability of the person being a reporter probably drops to about 1% if that and if you throw in the name James then the probability is way below 1%.

[BuyingThyme]

6. There's no connection.

You're trying to make a connection, and in doing so you are begging the question. It's known as a fallacy.

Good luck.

[Quixote1818]

8. No, they already had a connection and the two names came up.

Their is a difference. They followed a lead and the lead lead them to what they believed was a good EDUCATED guess. From that educated guess they found the name Gannon. Thats not a fallacy, thats a coincidence that could or could not be true. Look you are probably right and this will end up being nothing but certainly you would agree that at this point this needs to be pursued? If not then you are letting a negative attitude get in the way of scientific reasoning.

[BuyingThyme]

13. You can find the name 'Gannon' no matter where you start.

The only reason the name was found is because people were looking for it.

A 'fallacy' is an error in logic. You have convinced yourself that the evidence led to the name "Gannon" when in fact the name "Gannon" led you to the name "Gannon."

You don't understand your own logic, but what you're asking yourself is, "What's the chance of finding the name "Gannon" while looking for the name "Gannon"?

I know you think I'm trying to be smart, but I'm not.

I won't even try to delve into your science comment.

[Quixote1818]

16. Wrong

The name did not come up because people were looking for it it came up because it was their. You mean to tell me that a detective would throw this connection out? LOL! At least DOKUS ran the numbers rather then trying to get into some philosophical discussion that has nothing to do with math and probability. What if the name was Humperdink? What would be the probability of their being two Humperdinks and they both end up as reporters? The chances of that would be so low ANY scientist would immediately recognize that it had gone beyond coincidence into the realm of high probability. Would you still be arguing that it was a 'fallacy' then. How low of a probability of something occurring would it have to be before it was not a fallacy in your eyes?

[BuyingThyme]

17. There's no connection.

You are begging the question again.

'Begging the question' is a fallacy.

[Quixote1818]

18. You absolutely don't know their is NO connection

that we will have to find out. What we are discussing is a SERIES of things that POINT to the possibility of a connection, why is that so hard to understand? The more things that come together the more the probability that their is a connection increases. You are talking in absolutes I am talking in probability's based on several components. Let me make this even more clear.

What if the guys name was Humperdink and the reporters name was Humperdink also, what if both had first names that were Billy Bob? Now lets say Guckert and this kid are the same age (which they are). You see it does not matter that their is no KNOWN connection what takes president is that the PROBABILITY of ALL these things coming together makes the probability of their being a connection higher. The more angles you throw in that match the higher the probability that they are connected. You seem to just want to throw all these things out the door. Look, I agree it's a long shot but it's worth looking into.

[BuyingThyme]

19. I have answered your question accurately and precisely.

I have not offered any opinions or judgments.

[Quixote1818]

20. No you haven't

I threw several different scenarios at you and you have not touched them. The more components you add to an equation the higher the probability is that something is true IF they match up. You are focused just on one thing and are ignoring "clues" and the probability of these "clues" added together CHANGING the probability of the end result. The end result being this boy being Gannon.

You have made absolute statements about their being NO connection. Thats NOT science that is the kind of reasoning Creation Scientists use. You don't say "Their is a God" you say the probability of their being a God is based on this evidence?

Science takes evidence, puts it together then calculates the probability of their theory being true. If you have two pieces of evidence that occur at a high probability then your case may be weak but if you have ten pieces of evidence that occur at mixed probability's that point to something being true then the probability is probably very strong that it is true.

In this case their are four pieces of matching evidence with varying degrees of probability of occurring. The fact that their are four and not three pieces of matching evidence CHANGES the probability.

Example: .0005 + .0000004 + .05 + .006 = a much different probability than .004 + .03 The more components in the equation that match the higher the probability something is true.


You have not directly answered this at all much less accurately and precisely.

[BuyingThyme]

52. If you examine your evidence, you will find that

there is a 100% probability in each instance:

There's a 100% probability that two people on the planet share the last name 'Gannon.'

There's a 100% probability that two people on the planet share a first name 'James.'

There's a 100% probability that one person on the planet arguably looks like another person on the planet.

The problem you're having is that you don't understand that none of these occurrences are linked except for the fact that you're trying to link them.

The more you look for this kind of stuff, the more you will find. You will find that one of Gannon's relatives was born on the same day as one of Gosh's relatives. You will find that Gosh and Gannon slept in the same hotel room. You will find that they have the same blood type. You will find that they both had hearing problems. You will find that they're both left handed. You will find that they both like to dip chocolate in peanut butter. You will find that they both enjoy seafood. You will find that their phone numbers incorporate the same seven digits. IT MEANS NOTHING. YOU CAN ALWAYS FIND THIS STUFF.

Not to offend, but your use of words like "science" and "probability" is absolutely absurd in this instance.

I LOVE AND ENCOURAGE this, or any investigation into the Franklin cover-up. But that does not keep me from honestly answering your questions about probability.

[Dookus]

7. Then somebody would connect you

to Whitaker Chambers and call you a commie.

Gannon's name was Guckert. That he chose a pseudonym that is shared by others is not strange.

Out of 88,799 unique last names in the US in the 1990 Census, "Gannon" was # 2,501st. .005 percent of Americans have that name - that's 5 out of every thousand. If we assume population to be 280,000,000, that's over 1.4 million people. It's not a very unusual name.

http://www.census.gov/genealogy/names/dist.all.last

[Dookus]

12. Also

according to the '90 Census, James was the most popular name in the US. 3.318% of American males are named James.

[Goldmund]

51. No, not 1.4 million

1.4 million is .5 percent. .005 percent is 14,000.

[izzybeans]

24. Jeff Gannon was also the quarterback of the Oakland Raiders

or was it Rich Gannon. I can't remember.

[auburngrad82]

26. How about James Gannon the actor? eom

[Desertrose]

39. you mean James GARNER?

not Gannon, right?

Maverick James Garner??

[auburngrad82]

44. No, James Gannon is an actor that played in a lot of westerns

You'd probably recognize him if you saw him but I can't find a photo on the internet. Kind of a gruff old character actor.

[Desertrose]

46. I've searched imdb and no "James Gannon" listed as an older actor

nothing even close.....I think the name is not quite right.....don't think it was James Gannon...


Just FYI - James Garner...in absolutely NO way connected to any of this...I just think he is so cool I had to post his pic.....(this isn't who you are thinking of is it??)

[auburngrad82]

48. No, I know who James Garner is, not him, but this guy...

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0304000/

My mistake, the guy I was thinking of is James GaMMon. I spelt is rong. And spelin is won of my strongpints. BTW, I like James Garner and James GaMMon.

;-)

[Desertrose]

55. oh okay....gotcha now....I remember this face

and I no whut yu mean aboot spellin stuf...

(sad thing is - this guy is not as old as I thought he was LOL)

glad we got this all figured out :evilgrin:
now if we coul d just figiure out the other stuff,eh?

[2diagnosis]

10. do you have a degree in Mathematics?

LOL!

[Dookus]

11. god no

I'm bad at math - I probably fucked that up. I just did my best with a calculator and the census data.
edit: I see the question was for somebody else - it just appeared below mine. Never mind my answer. I'm a math genius... yeah, that's it.

[BuyingThyme]

15. I'm workin' on my...

guzintos.

[2diagnosis]

50. your guzintas

are muy perfecto.

[BuyingThyme]

54. nachos gratuitous

[nashville_brook]

4. there was a thread on this last nite.

fascinating possibility.

[republicannincompoop]

21. yes, and Andy contacted the mom of Johny Gosch,

and now the board is locked.

I was hoping to hear what came of it. I believe she said she would have "her P.I. look into it"???


For the poster Thyme: I hear ya, but what I watched last night was folks "looking for" connections from Jeff D Guckert to Johny Gosch, and *that* was when the James Gannon name popped up , again.

No, it wasn't a fallacy.

You erred by assuming they were looking for a Gannon.

Happens to the best of us, and you are probably correct: Just a coincidence.

But yeah, needs to be chased down.

I am wondering if that wasn't intentionally given (the name) to JeffyJim by someone covertly trying to oust Rove. I cringe about making fun of this guy: what if it is true? I have two sons, I can't imagine losing one of them at that age, I wouldn't be here tonight if something like that had happened (an abduction), so it IS a serious topic to research.

You realize, his usefulness getting bush re-elected is mute now?

American version of "The Night Of The Long Knives"?

[Bethany Rockafella]

33. It was locked because of the number of posts.

There is another one continued by Faye.

[drm604]

9. "Two Guckerts and two James!"

You lost me here. I only see one Guckert.

[Quixote1818]

14. I meant two Gannons and two James'

[skids]

22. Probabilties and coincidences.

One thing you have to understand about probabilities and coincidences:

There are a lot of cooincidences out there.

Let's say you have five different colors of jelly beans, and 100 cups, and you put two jellybeans each of a random color in each cup.

Let's say then someone comes along and takes one of the cups, and there are two green jellybeans. "What a coincidence!" they say, "Why the odds of that happening are one in 25!"

But they would have said the same thing if both jellybeans were red, or both were yellow, or black (ick), or pink.

In reality, the odds of getting two jellybeans of the same color are not one in 25, but one in 5.

We only see the coincidences we discover. In any set of data, there are bound to be a few cooincidences that may seem like a long shot. That's because there are so many ways for something to be a long shot.

So please, folks, don't rely on "what are the odds." Coincidences can be good clues, but are in and of themselves not signifigant. They can also be, just plain old coincidences. Dig deeper, find hard connections.

[Minstrel Boy]

23. what are the odds

that DU artists see resemblances, that Guckert has a purplish discoloration where Gosch is said to have had a birthmark, that after looking at the photos, Gosch's mother said she was contacting her private investigator?

[in_cog_ni_to]

28. Right. A mom should know if that man in the news is her son or not.

I found it very curious that her reply was..."I'm having my PI look into it." Odd. She could be protecting his idenity so he won't be murdered. I must have missed the birthmark info. I know he had a birthmark, could have had it removed and we have a full frontal photo. So there was a mark on his chest where his birthmark would have been?

As for the OP...I have never worked for anyone named Gannon. Has ANYONE on this board? How many members does DU have? Also, I have never worked for anyone with MY last name. I say the odds of Jeff Gannon knowing James Gannon are pretty damn high. Think Johnny Gosch.

[H2O Man]

27. While your example

is interesting, and certainly has a valid point, I would suggest that there is no such thing as coincidence: there is, rather, an order to the universe.

[Quixote1818]

36. I agree however their are more connections than just the names

For instance Johnny Gosh would be the same age Guckert claims to be on his websites. So, you just threw another Jelly Bean into the cup.

Here are the number of things that come together (five Jelly Beans):

First of all you already suspect he is this kid (low probability)Then yo find out:

Artists on DU think they have a striking resemblance
Same Last Name as Alias
Same first Name from other Alias name.
Same age
Same occupation

Thats five things

That would seem to raise the probability much more then if their was only the name connection.

[skids]

56. Whoa, Whoa, Whoa.

I think you misunderstand my point. As I said, cooincidences are good clues. And this one points to an association.

But if you build a case entirely on associations, there's always the chance that one of them is going to fall through. The more you have, the greater the chance. The more you get into the habit, the more willing your mind becomes to stretch the signifigance beyond what it is: a clue.

I was only trying to encourage the use of this rather striking cooincidence to be kept internal to the investigation, and patience be excercised before it becomes talking point. Try to find something a bit more solid before this becomes a "headliner". No matter what "the odds" are, when you come out swinging saying "what are the odds" you get pigeon-holed as a conspiracy theorist.

[Quixote1818]

59. I agree, thats why I asked for someone to run the numbers.

but for some reason no one saw that part of my post. Up front it looks convincing but I do believe in science and was hoping someone could come up with a rough estimate of the probability. Dookus was the only person who actually used some real numbers but failed to put in all the variables. This is very complicated.

[No Exit]

25. But... but...

while I would love to embrace any theory that would deepen this Jeff Gannon story, consider this:

"Jeff Gannon" is a MADE-UP name. The guy's real name is Guckert.

The Des Moines newspaper guy's real name is James Gannon. (We have absolutely nothing to indicate that HE'S using an alias.)

So... for starters, they're not relatives.

[Shopaholic]

29. Could we focus on the fact that Gannon/Guckert

is about 10 years older (at least) than Gosch would be?

[No Exit]

35. Um... yeah, well that's kind of a point you've got there! n/t

[Quixote1818]

37. Thats up to debate

Gosh would be the same age Gannon/Guckert claims to be on his website plus most people don't think he looks that old. Why would he claim to be 33 on his website if he was really 43? I suppose he might get more business if people think he is younger.

[No Exit]

43. Surely there's some way we can figure out Gannon/Guckert's birth date!

What state is he from? It doesn't cost much to get a copy of a birth certificate. Is this tramp really that much of a mystery man?

[in_cog_ni_to]

30. But...but...

the kidnapped little boy, Johnny Gosch (same 3 intials as Gannon, btw) worked for James Gannon. Is Jeff Gannon/Guckert really Johnny Gosch? THAT is the question. OR is Gannon/Guckert the other kidnapped paper boy, Eugene Martin? They both worked for the Des Moines Register where James Gannon was editor.

[Dookus]

31. He didn't work for James Gannon

in any real sense. He was a newspaper delivery boy.

I delivered Newsday as a child, but I would never claim I worked for the executive editor of the newspaper. I worked for a man named Mr. Bryce who delivered the papers to me from his van.

[Quixote1818]

40. But didn't James Gannon write a story about him?

[in_cog_ni_to]

57. He delivered papers for the Des Moines Register where Gannon was the

editor. There's not a newspaper in this country who would give the parents of a kidnapped child (who delivered papers for them) a difficult time in getting the story out. That is exactly what Gannon did. There's a reason he was attacking the Gosch family instead of getting the story out to the public.

[No Exit]

34. I know, I see what you're saying.

And it would REALLY be a case of the ultimate karma, if it turned out that Gannon/Guckert was Johnny Gosch.

But I just don't see how that could be. Look, it should be really easy to check and see where Jim Guckert/Jeff Gannon spent his ENTIRE childhood! Let's find out, if we can.

I read the story of those newsboys a long time ago. I remember that I said to myself, "I'll never let a son of mine work delivering papers, since he'd have to be out alone at odd hours!"

Sadly, I think Johnny Gosch and Eugene Martin are long dead.

[Desertrose]

41. thought I read somewhere that Gosch's Mom said she spoke with him in '97

and that he was still alive....

Can't remember if it was on the first or second thread here on DU...
I'll post a link if I can find it....



My gut is telling me thre is a VERRRY deep and dark bottom to this whole ugly story...

[No Exit]

42. The poor lady... don't you think she

wants to keep alive the hope that her son lives somewhere on this earth?

I can't imagine how I'd react if I were in her shoes. Maybe I, too, would want to cling to the hope that my child was alive somewhere.

OTOH, it wouldn't be out of character for a flim-flam man like Gannon/Guckert to POSE as her longlost son... if there was money in it for him!

[Desertrose]

45. link to Johnny Gosch website about this- its not just his mother's hope

http://www.johnnygosch.com/case_faqs.asp

Q: Is Johnny Gosch still alive?

A: Yes, according to all evidence from years of investigation and information from witnesses, Johnny is still alive.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Quixote1818]

58. Thanks, I read something like this as well. He is in contact with CIA

I heard.

[KurtNYC]

47. Here is an age progression pic of Eugene Martin

At the time of the abduction:


From: http://www.state.ia.us/government/dps/dci/mpic/martine.htm

Looks a lot less like Guckert/Gannon than the other(Gosch).

[merh]

49. Chins are different and Martin has brown eyes.

Guckert has green eyes. Martin's chin is rounder than guckert's

[Bethany Rockafella]

32. Where did the two Guckerts come from? I hadn't heard that.

[Quixote1818]

38. I meant to say two Gannons. Sorry

[2diagnosis]

53. 2 guckerts + 2 gannons = gosh! nt

:P

[jeanarrett]

60. In one of the first Gannon threads

In one of the earlier threads on Gannon, you could look at his tax bill (remember his unpaid taxes?) from a link someone posted. I looked at that link and the tax bill. They blacked his social security number, but it may have contained his birthdate too.