Newest Newsweek poll: Good and not-so-good news

[diplomats]

It has Bush's approval rating at 52 percent, which is the fifth poll in September with that number. That's good. However, in a head-to-head matchup with Howard Dean he leads 53-37. I know it's early, and many people aren't familiar with Dean, and the undecideds rend to go toward the challenger, but a 16-point lead strikes me as big for a guy with a mediocre 52 percent approval rating.

http://www.pollingreport.com

[usregimechange]

1. no

I don't agree, considering that 70% of Dems can't even name a candidate.

[diplomats]

10. I just figured out something when I looked at the results again

Bush's approval rating (52) minus his disapproval rating (39) is 13. His lead over Dean is 16, so they're pretty comparable. As one gap shrinks, I think the other one will, too.

[w13rd0]

2. Well...

"...I'm a Republican, so I'll likely be voting for one of the Republicans running. Right now I'm leaning Bustamante..."

We have to overcome that factor, the "stupid" factor...

[Bush_has_Parvo]

3. MAN!!! I saw that---Un-Real!!!

The stupid factor is in full effect, no doubt!

[diplomats]

4. Someone actually said that?

Oh man.

[ewagner]

6. Saw that

Typical sheep response.....Everybody hates Davis so I'll vote against Davis...Bustemonte is the name I've heard so I'll vote against Davis by voting for Bustemonte. wadawadakwadawadawada..?

I'm not worried about the National polls yet... Won't start to worry until after I see the result of the BUSH BOUNCE after the coronation (oooppps) I mean Convention next year.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

5. 53-37 - about how the geneal election will turn out

if the catastrophy actually happens

[ewagner]

7. You speaking about BBV? nt

[gristy]

8. That result is a bit in conflict with this Time/CNN Poll

from the same pollingreport site. When you look at the numbers below, the implication is that nearly all the undecideds go to Bush when the Dem candidate is named as Dean. That doesn't seem reasonable.

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Sept. 3-4, 2003. N=883 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.3.

If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, would you say you will

definitely vote for him: 29%
might vote for or against him: 25%
definitely vote against him: 41%
note sure: 5%

He's gonna have to cheat to win with those numbers.

[diplomats]

9. The problem is, as others have noted

a generic Dem does better than an actual candidate, at this point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. It Makes Sense

The % of your vote should be a function of the level of your approval....

If *'s approval rating is 52% one would expect him to get approximately 52% of the vote...


Where this method gets tricky is that you can have "poor" approval ratings and still get reelected if you dirty up your opponent or he is he inherently inferior....

That's what Gray Davis did to Bill Simon.....

The challenge for the challenger is to get every vote from those who disapprove of the incumbent...

[tedoll78]

12. Something to note:

Gore was behind Bush for most of 1999 and for a good amount of time in 2000 by anywhere from 7 to 15%. When people actually began to pay attention, the race went to a draw. If Dean's the nominee, he'll need a kick-ass acceptance speech. Kissing Judith on stage wouldn't be a bad idea either..