British election question.

[ronzo]

Can somebody help me out here. When will the elections happen and what's the procedure. I'd only show my ignorance if i speculated. Any Britons or Americans in GB around?

[AP]

1. Blair has to call an election before summer 2006.

Unless his party votes him out.

In my opinion (which is not popular here) this means that Blair has a chance if a good Democrat gets elected in 2004. He'll have a year and a half to operate in an environment in which the US isn't trying to sabotage him and the EU economy.

I say that happens and Labour will win again.

[tinnypriv]

2. Has to call one by June 2006, will probably call it in late 2005

You vote for party, not the PM, and votes are divided by constituencies (like, Reading East, Ealing etc). There are 659 seats.

To win, you have to have a majority in the Parliament, i.e. you've got to win 330 seats.

Last time around, Labour won by about 130 or so (i.e. had 470 odd seats). That was a 40% share of the vote, but with a low turnout. That is a landslide.

Barring extreme incompetence, Labour will be easily re-elected next time around.

[ronzo]

4. Outstanding, let me follow up...

Correct me here if I'm off.... You have labour, conservative, and a green contingency, right? Is the Labour party really holding up over there?

thanks.

[tinnypriv]

5. Green is probably the 5th party in England/Scotland/Wales

The major third party in the UK is the Liberal Democrats.

In Scotland (which has a different political scene compared to the UK as a whole), the Greens are more the 4th party, on the same sort of scale as the Scottish Socialists. There Labour is top, but the Scottish National Party is breathing down their neck. The Tories are non-existent.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru is also an additional factor. I don't think the Greens have much representation beyond the very local level there either.

Basically the third UK party is the Liberal Democrats. I would classify them as intellectually leftist. It is not my impression that they have much of a base like Labour does - i.e. Unions etc. It leads them to have interesting positions - they support raising taxes to pay for socialised health care and they opposed the Iraq war but they support the integration of Europe and the adoption of the Euro (plus other pro-corporate policies).

Here is an interesting map (SNP, PC, UUP, SDLP, DP and SF are all non-England parties):



This doesn't tell you much about the Greens nationally, but it shows how they are locally-orientated.

The red section in the middle (where I live), is the non-London industrial sector - Manchester, Nottingham etc. Hence, Labour.

The blue swathes are Conservative areas, but have less seats to contest (so although it looks like they are huge, they're not).

Labour will blow the Tories out of the water next election unless at least a few of these things happen:

1. The Tories get a new leader.
2. Labour gets a "worse" leader (i.e. from the left-wing of the party, which would drive some media into the Tory camp)
3. Very low turn-out in Labour households.
4. Strong turn-out in Tories ones.
5. A Lib-Dem vote increase in Labour areas.

All 5 would probably have to happen in order for there to be a change of government come 2005/6 IMO.

[ronzo]

6. This is something I want to have a grasp on.

I'll kick this up. Thanks!!

[T_i_B]

7. You vote for the parties candidate

not nessesarily the party.

That is the one thing I would add to a thread which has all other bases covered pretty damm well. You vote for candidate X as a representitive of party X to act as your advocate in parliament. The party who gets the most of their candidates elected wins. This means that there is a bit of variance in what you may be voting for.

Now where I am it's a choice between a pillock of an incumbent tory, a Blairite clone and the Liberal Democrats (who are my current choice in most places.) However, different constituencies may make you think twice.

For instance in North East Derbyshire I would be faced with the rare spectacle of a quality Labour MP by the name of Harry Barnes who I would normally have few qualms about voting for and who is a damm sight better than most identikit Blairite candidates.

And in Felixstowe I might be confronted with a tory (John Selwyn Gummer) who voted against the war and a Blairite who is still all chickenhawk!

And I think it's Wyre Valley who have the independent candidate who was elected in opposition to "new" labour carving up their local NHS.

So there is a big local factor at play here, at least in theory. However, most people do vote mainly on national issues only and as such "new" labour has become adept as fielding Blairite clones. Admittedly you tend to know what you are voting for with these but on the other hand an MP's first duty should be to concience, contituents and country, not to party. As such I tend to avoid "new" labour when voting.

In summary, there is a big local factor at play, but in pratice most people vote according to what is going on nationally, which does cancel out the local factor very often and very effectivly. I just think that it pays to check out who is going to be on the ballot paper in your own constituency.

[Francis]

3. within 5 years

the government can call elections any time they want, but they have to hold them at 5 years.
Usually they pick a time they feel they stand a chance. maybe after 4