Hurricane Isabel

[Zuni]

Us here in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal region are about to be spanked by a major hurricane. Isabel is a massive category 5 storm with winds approaching 150 miles an hour.
It is supposed to pass over my area in a few days.

I am worried. This is not a heavy thunderstorm or a tropical storm. This is a full scale hurricane.

Who else is stuck in the path of Isabel?

[Renew Deal]

1. Stick your head between your legs...

and kiss your ass goodbye. :nuke:

[Boom_cha]

2. Not that it's any comfort but

it's been downgraded to category 4, last I heard

[Northwind]

3. Category 3 now

Isabel's winds are down to a mere 120 mph. Her eye has shrunken and may collapse shortly after landfall. She's going to fizzle out.

[Cha]

4. Good! I hope so for all their sakes! I was in a "5" in 1992

on the Island of Kauai...It was called Iniki and means piercing wind in Hawaiian! It did $$Billions of Bucks in damage and took more than 5 years to rebuild!



But we handled! :-)

[skyzics]

10. Impressive pic..!

Must have been quite an experience.. especially for being such a rare event at that location.

[Spoon]

6. It is losing strength currently, but

it could regain strength just as quickly as was lost. Hurricane's are crazy like that. Izzy has slowed down over very warm waters... I'd still keep my eye on this one for sure. 120 mph is no joke, regardless.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

12. hardly a "fizzle"

expect a lot of rain and flooding and power outages from downed lines.
No matter what- a TON of precipitation is coming.
Prepare for serious and catastrophic flooding.
Head for the hills as they say.

[Cush]

5. track altered

at least for us in the DC Area, now saying it will be a bit further to the south and west of us. Earlier they were saying it looked like "the worst case scenario"

[Don_G]

7. Here's The Current Path

Don't kid yourself though. Hurricanes often spawn tornados, the rain will be heavy and expect high winds.

[WillyT]

8. And... It Has Slowed Down, And Has Yet To Hit The Warm Gulf Stream !!!

It could do a major rebuild before striking the coast!!!

Here's hoping it does not! :toast::scared::toast:

[skyzics]

9. Latest Forecast Discussion from Hurrican Center

HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
ISABEL SINCE THE 18Z RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATED 110
KNOTS...SO THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED 5 KNOTS TO
105 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL AS WELL AS SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL WHICH IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 48 AND 60 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES THE
GFS VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
UNDERSTAND WHY THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT CALL FOR MORE WEAKENING BEFORE
LANDFALL. PERHAPS IT IS THE PATH OVER THE GULFSTREAM THAT WILL
KEEP THE WIND SPEED UP. ANYWAY THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED
ONLY 5 MORE KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL TO 100 KNOTS...STILL A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND SCENARIO IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/06. THE GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS FORWARD SPEED FOR 48 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHILE BEING BYPASSED BY A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE THE
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE CENTER INLAND IN 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 26.1N 70.2W 105 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 26.9N 70.8W 105 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 28.4N 71.7W 100 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 29.8N 72.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 31.5N 73.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 37.2N 77.2W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0000Z 44.5N 79.5W 40 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/0000Z 54.0N 78.5W 30 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[JasonBerry]

11. Seen THIS Pic???

[skyzics]

13. Kind of looks like..

Isabell is entraining drier air on the west and northwest side.. but still sucking up good moisture from the south on the east side. Gulf of Mexico moisture (clouds) lurk to the west.. and moving eastward.. could that moisture get entrained as the storm moves over the warm Gulf stream..?

Only the shadow knows..

[inthecorneroverhere]

14. Starry Night

If it weren't a hurricane trying to whack Cape Hatteras, I'd say that photo has a beautiful resemblance to van Gogh's 'Starry Night.'

I do notice that the eye is much less distinct. Watch it as it goes over the Gulf Stream. If the eye becomes more distinct, that means that Isabel has gained strength.

Nature is neat. Nature is powerful. Nature is awesome.

Take care, all who are close to the coast.

[greyl]

15. Salisbury MD here - on the peninsula. Agnes was a category 1

when it hit Florida, and only a tropical storm when it hit land again in the Northeast. The potomac rose 24 feet in some places.
(Agnes was also a thousand miles across and was stationary over PA, but the point is that being alert and making preparations is still necessary with Isabel.)

CBS news just said Isabel may be comparable to Fran or Floyd when she hits land - there's a lot of warm water in her path for fuel. There are 45 foot waves in the miles high storm right now, so "just you...Look out!" (spoken like Wadsworth in "Clue")

[FDRrocks]

16. I'm in PA

but I am not too worried. I lived through Andrew when I lived in Ft. Lauderdale, and that was also right after it touched down for the most part.

Board up your windows if you are near the eye. If you have a basement, sleep in it, away from the windows. Your property might get hit, but your life will be fine.

[greyl]

17. I'm on the banks of the Wicomico river on the 2nd floor.

So we'll see. :)

DMO (oil storage) is right across the river. Last year had a dream about a flood that put an oil barge right up against our back porch...So I'm looking forward to that, haha ;)

It's an interesting psychological conflict, this being prepared for the worst while remaining cool, calm and collected.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

18. Isabel losing its eye (becoming disorganized)

still packing a punch though....Again, I predict major flooding in Virginia and Potomac areas.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html