Prediction on Bush's approval ratings

[midnight armadillo]

Ok, I took a peak at the approval/disapproval graphs over on Pollkatz. He has the raw data for the average approval/disapproval scores on his website. I don't have time to crunch the real raw numbers on www.pollingreport.com, so I just used the averages. I just fit some straight lines to the data points and considered their slopes...

After 9/11, Bush's approval rating was dropping by 0.88% per 2-week period, and disapproval was increasing at 0.81% per period.

Since the Iraq war, the approval rating has been dropping by 1.59% per period, and disapproval increasing at 1.48%. Don't forget there's a margin of error in the polls and not everyone answers so the rates aren't mirror imaged. Note the nearly 2x increase in the rate of change for both slopes! The rate of change is also remarkably linear. Are there any poli sci types out there who care to comment?

PREDICTION
Extrapolating this, the AVERAGE approval score will hit 50% in the last week of Sept. The AVERAGE disapproval score will hit 50% in the 1st week of November :party:. This of course assumes there will be no major catastrophes (a terrorist attack in the US) or successes (Bush plants Bin laden's head on a pike in the Rose Garden). Enjoy!

[cjbuchanan]

1. I think they will level off in the next two months

It will be right around 45-50%.

I say this because they are going to do everything to distract and confuse. Plus, they will say any and all attacks are because there is a presidential campaign going on.

I think his numbers will go up a little bit (5-10%) in Jan and Feb (when the Dems are going at it), but fall back to 45-50% in March.

I think they will go up again once he starts spending all that money April-July.

From there it is up to the Dem nominee.

[damnraddem]

2. I've seen the graph with all of the polls:

Dubya's naturally-occurring approval trend is a sharp downward slope. He jumped up twice (9/11, Iraq invasion), with everything else downward. Unless he can pull off another 'event,' he's toast.