So who drops out? And when?

[ShaneGR]

Lets look at the candidates:

Braun: I'll be surprised if she's still in it by Iowa. She hasn't raised any money at all.

Graham: With Clark jumping in there is a high probability Graham will bow out and run for re-election in Florida.

Edwards: He's not going anywhere. All or nothing with Senator Edwards. Probably nothing but he does have a lot of money to work with.

Dean: Not going anywhere.

Kerry: Not going anywhere unless he bombs in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Gephardt: Will drop out after Iowa.

Kucinich: Will stay in until he thinks he's got a good enough donor list for a statewide race in 06. He's running for name recognition and money to go up against Dewine in the Senate.

Lieberman: Drops out after Iowa or New Hampshire.

Clark: He'll run the whole cycle.

Sharpton: Gone after the key southern primaries, maybe right after South Carolina.

So, I have Dean, Clark, Kerry, and Edwards staying until Super Tuesday. Kucinich might just stick around but I doubt it because he'll have to spend a lot of money to do it.

[newsguyatl]

1. gephardt's not going anywhere

and why would he drop out after iowa? he'll come in 2nd there...

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

2. Gephardt is leading in the national polls

he has a bunch of union support, and you think he'll drop out? I doubt it.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. I think Sharpton wants to go to Boston with delegates

Kerry will not bomb anywhere. My order of fallout: Braun, Lieberman, Graham, and maybe Clark.

[davidinalameda]

7. Graham will be among the first to withdraw

and I say that with a very heavy heart since he was my first choice

Dean won't withdraw until March or April, when he finally loses the nomination to Clark.

[dorktv]

8. Clark has started too late. Dean has most people fired up

and these people are willing to do anything for him. Even walk three miles in 100+ weather just to TABLE for him.

[Wickerman]

4. Lieberman isn't worried about Iowa

he knows he can't do a good showing there so he has written the state off. Them Iowan's are smart. I also think Sharpton and Braun will stick around as they are pols looking to get their message across and the longer they wait to endorse someone else the more valuable their endorsement becomes. Graham should jump, they need him in Florida and Clark has the Southern vote, imo.

[progressivejazz]

5. Lieberman is history.

He might as well drop out right now.

The DLC will back Clark over Lieberman from now on.

What all Democrats, including the DLC, want is a candidate with charisma. Clark has it. Lieberman has anti-charisma.

[uptohere]

6. maybe like this

Graham: Graham will bow out and run for re-election in Florida. Probably after Super Tuesday

Edwards: Not going anywhere.

Dean: Not going anywhere.

Kerry: Not going anywhere.

Gephardt: Will drop out after Iowa if hes third or worse.

Lieberman: Drops out if he's a non-entity in everything thru SC

Clark: He'll be in unless he just fizzles on Super Tuesday.

Sharpton/Braun/Kucinich: no reason to drop out, all they really wants is the national exposure and are spending virtually nothing to get it.

[Emboldened Chimp]

9. It might shake out like this

Dean: In it all the way.

Kerry: Will definitely be gone by NH. His campaign has ZERO life.

Lieberman: He'll stick around even if he does poorly in NH, but will be gone after Super Tuesday.

Gephardt: Gone after a poor showing in Iowa.

Edwards: Will stick around to at least South Carolina.

Braun: Gone by the end of October--no money.

Clark: In it for the long haul.

Kucinich: Will stick around for as long as he can take it. He knows he's playing the role of pain-in-the-ass.

Sharpton: Will be around because he knows he's making the most sense.

Graham: Gone after Iowa.

The race will come down to Clark and Dean, with my choice, Dean, pulling off a slim victory. He will choose Clark as his veep and the two will proceed to beat the stuffing out of *.

[Wickerman]

11. that is actually pretty good

but I would change two things:

Braun will hang on, money or no to make her case.

Clark over Dean. Dean his VP - just to be a pain in the ass. :evilgrin:

[disgruntella]

10. dean drops out immediately

transfers all campaign funds to clark

Just kidding. :evilgrin: