What states should we target in 04?

[TakebackAmerica]

We should target the following: Arkansas, West Virginia, Tennessee, Ohio and Florida.

We must keep these five to win: Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania.


If Bushit really drops in the polls, we should tarket this quartet: Louisiana, Kentucky, Georgia and North Carolina.

[ferg]

1. AZ, NV, OH, WV

AR and TN are not as good choices. The South is trending away from Democrats. The only real reason they voted for Democrats was because Lincoln was a Republican. After 150 years, they've finally gotten over that. (I don't mean the 40% minority Democrats in the South, of course.)

Better to focus on the Southwest and Midwest. WV is somewhat of a special case.

Take a look at the 2000 results. The Southwestern votes and Midwest votes were very close, the Southern votes a landslide for Bush. So there's no point on targetting the South.

Still, any campaigning even in the South helps downticket and may lead to a landslide. It just shouldn't be the primary focus.

[wuushew]

5. No FL or LA?

both quite winnable

[janx]

47. Forget Florida! I'd much rather concentrate on a state or two

other than Florida at this point. That is, we can't ignore it, but why waste time on such a corrupt target?

[jfxgillis]

6. Great minds (see post #3 )

.... except I think we need to target one Sourthern state at least to keep Bush honest and to block a GOP sweep down yonder.

[Prodemsouth]

10. AR, TN, were closer to voting Dem in 2000 than Arizonia.

If the candidate has the right appeal they already got 40% down south- makes more sense to grab a couple of southern states. That Dem Governor in AZ barely won.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. I'm ready to work in AR

and I know that there are many in NW AR that are, too. Our problem is the local Dems, who tend not to run anyone against the local GOP Congressman. It gives the impression that they figure that the Third Congressional District is a lost cause and not to bother with it. There have been a lot of people moving into the area, and I think the demographics are changing. The Harrison AR city council recently condemned a mass mailing of racist hate literature by some white supremist group-a real change in attitude for them. Newton County, where I live, has a growing number of liberal/progressives who always vote. This area is not one for the Dems to dismiss.

[Riptide]

35. I used to live in Roger, Arkansas...

It was such a repuke stronghold. I think my family was one of the rare democrats in town.

[jfxgillis]

3. Not quite.

We only need EITHER Tennessee OR Florida OR Arkanas, not all three.

Add Nevada to your list, since Bush deliberately deceived those voters on nuclear waste. That's a local issue we can exploit. Arizona has become more competitive since 2000. NH would give the Dems a regional sweep and a regional sweep anywhare in the USA to tough to beat.

Concur on WV amd OH.

Of course we have to keep all the states we won last time.

[calimary]

9. Targetting Florida - and winning there - would be sweet!

A MAJOR-LEAGUE black eye to the bushies in general, junior in particular, and MOST especially, darling jebbie.

[Prodemsouth]

14. Ohio has a very weak statewide Democratic Party why?

Ohio seems to be trending Repug why I don't know. State Budget was a mess, when I went up there. Taft should have been defeated.

[msanger]

26. could "the statewide democratic party" be the problem?

Having seen Dean activity here in Virginia, it seems to me that the "dean party" is stronger than the "democratic party." I say this because there are many enraged, engaged, activated people who are working for Dean, who probably would not work (very hard) for the republican lite verson of the democratic party of Virginia.

Personally, for me, I don't want to support a party that does not challenge the republican's for every seat in the state. Maybe if we get a candidate who is willing to let people take control rather than depending on the "statewide party" to do thing -- we might be able to win in a lot of states that have "weak statewide democratic parties."

[Noordam]

4. Change Nev for Florida IMHO

with the nuclear waste site being built 90 from Las Vegas and the economy in the shitter, Gore only lost NV by ~22,000 votes. I believe NV is ours if we ha ha play our cards right :evilgrin:


on edit

Florida has Jeb and Touchscreens controlled by Jeb.

[Prodemsouth]

16. Electorial votes, Nevada has what 3?

Still appeal to big states, try to pop off a couple of southern states. Look at Nevada, as a back up..I still don't know.

[goobergunch]

21. 5 (n/t)

[Noordam]

22. If Gore had won NV he would be in the WH NOW.

:(

[never cry wolf]

7. ALL OF EM!!!!

Leave no stone unturned!!!

[msanger]

28. I agree 100%

put the pressure on everywhere. concede nothing. (learn to spell.)

[oasis]

8. Georgia Diebold country: exclusive distributor of 23, 000 voting machines.

The entire state is infected.

[Prodemsouth]

15. Yup, live there, forget GA right now, but they do love the monkey.

n/t

[Iris]

48. didn't Clinton win in GA - twice?

[oasis]

54. Didn't Max Cleland lose when Sonny Purdue and Chambliss won in 2002?

Georgia had 100 percent Diebold voting machines in 2002. You got a problem with crooked machines in that state.

[Mz Pip]

11. All of them

I want a sweep - all 50 states vote to toss the pretender out on his ass.

MzPip
:dem:

[FauxNewsBlues]

12. Gotta go for the big MO

Missouri is crucial. I almost would suggest Gephardt as a VP candidate if he loses in the primaries because of it. Clark should help in that case for Arkansas, Graham in Florida.

I genuinely believe that one of those 3 should be VP candidate just for strategery reasons.

[Donna Zen]

38. MO

Yeah_I've seen Gephardt's name tossed around before...he has a strong organization in MO with extended support from labor. The states surrounding MO could also get in motion. Plus Gephardt knowns healthcare and moving legislation.

BTW_I'm only passing along what I heard.

[loyalsister]

55. MO- Without a doubt!

We've been selecting presidents for a long time. However, the strength of Gephardt is overrated. He has NO organization here. Evertime there's an event here in Central MO there are a couple of signs. He has been outnumbered by Dean people consistantly. He has very limited support from public officials. The governor is supporting him, but not many other party officials are coming out for him. In fact, I have personally heard several say they will not support him. The bottom line is, labor is his only strong support in Missouri. I know several people who have campaigned for him in the past and many many party loyalists who are not supporting him.
Statewide support is not something Gep has ever truly tested. He shouldn't be so arrogant as to count on it.
Dean, on the other hand, has had some broad appeal. In fact, there is a state rep. heading up the Dean steering committee in KC. The women I know seem to be leaning towards Dean. Choice is a major issue here. Dean's message will resonate on several levels. Schools are really suffering and Gep. was party to NCLB. Guns have recently become a bigger issue, and that could change things with women, though.

[NNN0LHI]

13. Don't even worry about Illinois.We voted for Gore by a landslide last time

And the same thing will happen in '04 no matter who gets the Dem nomination. That is why Junior does not even waste his time here.

Don

[Prodemsouth]

17. DC only!! Thats what would happen if we listened to some who post here.

n/t

[AlinPA]

18. What about KY? Do we have a chance there?

Heard they lost a lot of jobs (like most everyone else, I suppose)

[wryter2000]

19. Kahl-ee-FOR-nee-a

Just trying to learn how to say it like Ah-nuld.

We're a whole bunch of electoral votes, gang, and I think the dem can have them easily.

[knight_of_the_star]

56. We'll have to work for them though

The pukes have done a good job muddying the waters out here. If the 9th Appellate delays the recall, that could easily put us up in the air unless we have someone REALLY impressive win this state's primary.

[AlinPA]

20. We have to work hard in PA

Bush visits here every month or so.

[Donna Zen]

39. Agreed

I was home this summer and have never known the place to be so red. Baaaad feeling about PA.

[Brucey]

23. Need all the states Gore won, plus

either MO, FL, or TN. It might be hard to get all that Gore did, particularly with rigged voting machines and election procedures. Still need one more. Maybe Missouri this time.

[HereSince1628]

24. Holding the fort would be nice...MN, HW, WV, MA, NY, DC

And the Purple states...CA, FL. TX is too important to dismiss.
and so money just MUST be spent there...


But, based on available electoral votes and voting history I think the states with the greatest potential to respond to effort are

NC, VA, MI, KY, NJ, GA, ME, IL, OH and WA

[maveric]

25. New Hampshire

Its only 4 electorates but in 2000 is was very close and went to bu$h. If Gore took NH Florida would have been irrelevant.

Oh, and some of the bigger states would help too.
FL,OH,LA, GA...

[wuushew]

27. Pick your combinations from the following list of swing states

Here are my predictions for swing state outcomes in 2004

the democratic base = 13 safe blue states of hardcore dems(172 Electoral votes, including the District of Columbia)

+

the electoral votes from the swing states I called for Dems (88 votes)

=

260 Electoral votes , 10 or more votes are needed from FL,MO,LA,NV,WV or NH to win.


FL = 27 (winnable)
PA = 21 (D)
OH = 20 (R)
MI = 17 (D)
GA = 15 (R)
VA = 13 (R)
WA = 11 (D)
TN = 11 (R)
MO = 11 (S, probably go R unless Gephardt is on the ticket)
WI = 10 (D)
AZ = 10 (R)
MN = 10 (D)
LA = 9 (S)
CO = 9 (R)
OR = 9 (D)
IA = 7 (D)
AR = 6 (R, unless Clark is on the ticket)
NV = 5 (S, my guess is R however)
NM = 5 (D)
WV = 5 (S)
NH = 4 (S)


http://www.grayraven.com/ec/

[Liberalboy]

40. I don't think you should

Count Colorado in the republican column. We voted for Clinton twice and almost had a new Dem Senator this last time around. Our economy is hurting so bad and Gov. Owens' personal relationship to Bush might hurt him here.....

Independents outnumber republicans and democrats in the State.

[knight_of_the_star]

57. That could help

There are a lot of states that LOOK red at first glance but we could sway them our way because of what 4 years of Bush has done.

[msanger]

29. whatever state the reader lives in!

If everybody works in each state, and we don't conceed any states, and we have a candidate who empowers people who want to kick bush out of the white house to actually do things ---- then all the states are in play.

and we can give bush the shaming he deserves. Like a solid blue map.

[ShaneGR]

30. OH, LA, FL, WV, KY, GA, AK, NC

Those are my favs....

[wuushew]

31. You say Kentucky but its not even a swing state?

are things that bad?

[carpetbagger]

32. We need to target the Dakotas.

No, it's unlikely that we'll win there in the 2004 presidential election, but we've got to stop sending the message that the upper midwest is a GOP lock. We've got too much to lose on the senatorial level. Four democratic senators come from the Dakotas. I'd sure hope the nominee makes at least a half-day stop in Fargo and Sioux Falls.

[carpetbagger]

33. Double posted again, but there are two Dakotas.

So there.

[TakebackAmerica]

34. Here we go

197 Electoral Votes for a Dem 205 for Bush 133 Toss-up

330- 205 landslide is possible.





Safe states
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
, Michigan
New Jersey
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington

[wuushew]

37. A couple of corrections

MI and WA are swing states the safe states are as follows

CA
DE
HI
IL
MD
ME
MA
NJ
NY
RI
VT
DC
CT

= 172 confirmed votes

[Donna Zen]

41. ME

I'm in ME and I don't feel it is very safe. We have a very evenly divided government that is currently controlled by Dems; but only by a few votes. Gore did not get 50% of the votes. Also, we split our electoral votes.

NC splits its votes now too. Would this make a difference in figuring the county?

[wuushew]

43. The state went 6% for Nader in 2000

Gore 316,109________ 49%
Bush 284,724________ 44%
Nader 37,842 ________ 6%
Buchanan 4,324 ________ 1%
Browne 2,961 ________ 0%
Phillips 823 ________ 0%


The state is not going for Bush, and I do believe that in the 30 years that ME has had vote splitting that option has never been exercised.

Margins of victory less than 5% qualify a state as swing which based on the 2000 election ME is clearly not

[MisterP]

36. as many as possible; try FL, OH, MO, NH, NV, maybe TN

[Le Taz Hot]

42. I have to question Florida

and maybe Floridians can set me straght but isn't Florida pretty much sewn up for the GOP? From my understanding, the "machine" that was in place in 2000 is still there and better than ever. Also, didn't Jeb just win by like a landslide there in 2002?

[fujiyama]

44. I like this game!

Having checked the map out that another poster gave a link to, I noticed the dems can will without Florida, but for that to happen, the candidate must win all the states Gore won, plus two southern states. I think Arkansas and Louisiana might be interesting gambles. Obviously this is assuming someone appealing to these states would be the candidate, like say Clark.

So, I think this race can be won without Fl. We do have to be careful about some states Gore did win, like Minnesotta, Iowa, and Wisconsin, as well as New Mexico. I remember these states had an extremely small margin. Still I know NM did elect Richardson as governor, so hopefully that's an indication of '04. Also, remember Coleman did beat Mondale, and quite badly by that. This might have been because of the memorial though and people getting turned off by the politization of it.

[wuushew]

45. I as citizen of Wisconsin I can guarantee my state will not go bush

Many in the midwest were fooled by stupid slogans like "Sportsmen for Bush" and a host of other environmental phobias leveled against Gore.

Wisconsin and Minnesota both had respectable Green turnout at the polls. With no Nader factor in 2004, war and a shitty economy I don't feel the race will be as close again in the upper midwest.

[FDRrocks]

46. PA?

I like in the north east area. I've been to south east area (philly), as well. Everything I see points out that this 'swing state' has every intention of going to the Republican "conservatives" (laugh)

[jiacinto]

49. I would add Nevada to that list

That state will be a battleground.

[Wednesdays]

50. The State of Apathy...

For those of you who like to play "what if"...check out this "Electoral College Calculator." You can use it to experiment with different electoral vote combinations.

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html

Here's another site that includes a calculator and an interactive map (scroll down to the bottom of the page). It's from the 2000 election, but the electoral numbers are still similar. I like clicking on the states and turning them Democratic!

www.jump.net/~jnhtx/beta/

Oh, and psst...(to the site's administrator)...Gore won Florida in 2000.

[Swede]

51. My sentiments exactly

[wuushew]

52. That site sucks

try this instead this has the election results and proper electoral votes counts for every election that matters

http://www.grayraven.com/ec/

[Wednesdays]

53. I agree...

Wuushu's site is more current.