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Edited on Tue Jun-07-05 03:13 AM by happyslug
Drafts do NOT work unless Draftees Mothers want the Draftees to go. Thus the issue is NOT Volunteer vs Draftee Army, it is what, from a political point of view, does the people want the army to do. The war in Iraq has NEVER had popular support and never will (and support for the war is declining), thus the Draft will NOT return the Army to the Army of 1966 but the army of 1968-1972.
Basically the Draftee army of 1945-1968 was very successful. Even in the early days of Vietnam, you had higher morale and less desertion than the US Army suffered from during WWII. The problem was when the Country as a whole turned against the war in Vietnam. As the Country turned against the War, the Draftee army reflected that "Spirit" and basically ceased to functions as an effective military unit (Through at that same time period, 1968-1972. those same personnel would have fought like tigers against a Soviet Invasion of Western Europe). Now the elite units, the Rangers, the Special Forces, the Airborne, the Marines seems to have kept their edge during 68-72, it is the regular army forces that declined sharply (To the extent that by 1969 North Vietnam was telling its soldiers NOT to engage American Soldiers unless fired upon, most Americans Soldiers just went through the motions after 1968).
This has been the problem behind all armies, the soldiers must be motivated to fight. In a mercenary army it is the pay, but you get very few recruits who want to really fight (and die) for money. Thus the Volunteer army was built on the premises that any fighting would be brief and intense (and the soldiers paid well for their services).
The problem facing the US Army today is they is no real support for this war. Mothers are NOT sending their sons off to fight because Mothers do NOT see how this war benefit themselves, their families and most importantly their sons. When Mothers see a war as needed to protect their family, mother will send off their sons to war. This is the problem recruiters are facing, mothers (and to a lesser extent fathers) are saying NO, this fight is NOT worth my son's life (and I know daughters are dieing to, but I use sons for it is tradition for only sons to go and the best imagery is shown saying Mother sending their sons, than saying Mothers sending their Children or Sons and Daughters).
Now during peace time mother left their children enlist, but that was like leaving your children go to their first job, not really off to war. Now there is a good chance of real combat, Mothers are saying NO, and will continue to say NO as long as the Mothers do not think this war (or any war) is NOT in the best interest of themselves, their family or the country as a whole. This is the problem the Army is facing and going to the Draft will NOT solve it. The only solution is to reduce the army to a size that you can recruit people who just want to fight. Rome did this during the Rule of Augustus, he kept only 29 legions, not the almost 100 legions that existed during the Civil Wars of Julius Caesar. The 100 legions were made up of people who were fighting for a cause, once the Cause was one the army went home (and Augustus Caesar formed a new army out of the remnants, a more mercenary one, but limited to the people who were willing to fight for pay as opposed to fight for a cause).
The Roman solution is just NOT possible for Bush. The main reason is Bush needs more troops than he can hire (Unlike Augustus who could get away with a small mercenary army). When being in the army was no more than a job, the Army had no problem getting recruits, but now that actual fighting is taking place, he will only be able to recruit people who like to fight, and most of them have already enlisted in the Special forces or other elite fighting formation. This leaves very few for the regular forces and is the main reason for the decline in recruits.
Now when Mothers want their sons to fight the US has NEVER had a problem raising an Army. The Civil War was basically fought by Volunteers on both sides (Through the South did adopt an effective draft to get more recruits, while the North adopted an ineffective draft to increase revenues). The same with the American Revolution, the Colonies did have some problem raising troops but that had more to do with paying for their equipment and food AND to help them offset their lost of income while fighting than getting people to enlist. During WWI most of the US Troops were enlisted (Through we did draft from day one) and during WWII after 1942 Everyone was drafted (You could NOT enlist from 42-45, you had to go through the induction system).
During all of these periods the American People as a whole (and the Mothers of these soldiers) supported why America was fighting. They was No difference if the Soldier volunteer or was drafted, the key was support back home. When you had opposition to the use of troops back home, than the effectiveness of those troops declined sharply. Examples of this is for the Draftee army of WWI was when it was sent into Russia is "secure supplies". This was opposed in the US and the US troops morale sank as they continued to fight AFTER the Armistice was sign for the war their were drafted to serve in.
Another example is the opposition to the suppression of the Philippine insurrection after the Spanish-American war of 1898. Again as American support for the war declined, the effectiveness of US Troops decline (and these were All volunteers). Now the insurrection was suppressed but the US ended up hiring local residents of the Philippines to do the dirty work while the US pulled out the Volunteers and kept only Regular army units in the Philippines (At that time the equivalent of todays elite forces in number).
My point here is that going to the Draft will NOT solve the Army's problem, which is opposition to this war. As long as the vast majority of the American people do NOT support this war, the Army will not get the recruits it needs. The quickest way to force the issue is to propose a draft with Congress knowing to vote against the Draft is to vote to pull put of Iraq for without the Draft the Army will collapse.
Right now, Congress can say it supports the war with Iraq without suffering to much politically. While there is no support for this war, their is really little opposition (For the costs of this war is being carried on the backs of people who enlisted during peacetime). Now that we have been fighting for 3 years, potential enlistees know they will go to Iraq and are NOT enlisting for that reason. Their parents are telling them NO, their life is more important than oil. The estimates I have read off the net says if present trends continue the Army will have reach a crisis point midway through 2006. At that point Congress will have to make a choice it has been avoiding, draft the troops needed or pull out of Iraq. When a serious proposal of a Draft hits Congress you will than have real opposition to this war and Congress will act like it did in the 1970 i.e. whatever Congress thinks will cost it less politically (at first do nothing, than blame someone else, including the President and than looking defeat in the eyes vote one way or the other on the issue of the draft/pulling out of Iraq).
Now in the 1970s the Congress was Democratic and the draft already existed. Thus it took a political move for the Democrats to end the Draft to save the army (and then pulled us out of Vietnam to save the Army). Today Congress is controlled by the GOP and we do NOT have a draft. Thus the neutral position is to do nothing (which is what Congress is doing). The real issue is what will Congress do when the problem of Army recruitment comes to a head in mid 2006. At that point it can no longer ignore the problem, for if the problem is ignored we will be pushed out of Iraq do to lack of troops (And this may happen as the Fall Congressional elections take place). Congress will this be forced either to sit back and watch the US gets pushed out of Iraq OR impose the draft to prevent that defeat. At that point they will be no third solution (i.e. what congress is doing now, do nothing and hope for a change in circumstances). 2006 is shaping up to be an interesting year.
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