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PO means that we have reached the peak of production, T Boone Pickens was probably right on when he said that 82 million bbl/day would be the most oil that ever comes out of the ground on any one day. It looks like he was right.
Aftre that point, the total amount we can pump will decline. The rate at which it will decline depends on many variables. In fields that have been over pushed through clever but unintelligent technologies like water injection, the reduction is steep and sudden.
The Saudis, for example, have been pushing the Ghawar field in such a manner; it also happens to be the biggest field on the planet. Its failure would be catastrophic
But even given the best case, falling production will not only drive up fuel costs but every cost dependent on oil, food, all products of any kind.
Western economies are wholly dependent on oil that is BOTH cheap AND plentiful, change either of those factors and there is trouble.
Western, debt enabled economies, are also absolutely dependent on growth to pay off the debt at some time in the future, an economy dependent on growth generated by cheap plentiful oil will find it very difficult to fund the transition, both in financial and energy terms, regardless of the ingenuity of the scientists and businesses in it.
And my fave:
We'll never pump the last of the oil because, at some point down the curve, and a long way before the bottom of the well, the EROI passes 1:1, long before that we stop because the effective EROI, including refining, shipping and other overheads on producing the oil for the end user, will pass 1:1.
Oh, then there are markets that discount the future into the present. Once they see $100 oil on the horizon, they will price it in to the present, driving down the present value of oil dependent stock (guess how many) and making it even harder to raise the capital to fund the transition.
(isn't money grand?)
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