I thought I might pass this along. I've been talking with a lot of people I know who are also familiar with politics here in Missouri, and the consensus seems to be that Gephardt is about the only Dem who could possibly pull MO in a general election. One of the factors likely to play a significant role in '04 is the backlash against Gov. Holden. His popularity is in the toilet and there will likely be a significant turn-out to oust him next year (there has even been talk of the State Auditor running for the Democratic nomination against the sitting governor). The state went to Bush in '00 and both houses of the legislature went Republican for the first time in decades. I think an intersection of factors will throw this state Republican next year, both in the presidential and governor races. I wish I could give more optimistic news.
http://www.showmenews.com/2003/Sep/20030922News001.aspGOP picks Bush uncle to lead campaign in Missouri
By JOSH FLORY of the Tribune’s staff
Published Monday, September 22, 2003
JEFFERSON CITY - The road to the White House runs through Missouri, and President George W. Bush’s campaign team this morning unofficially kicked off its re-election effort in the state by announcing its Missouri chairman.
St. Louis attorney Bucky Bush, the uncle of the president, will lead the effort in Missouri. At a news conference in a Jefferson City hotel this morning, he jokingly recalled baby-sitting the president and taking him to his first major league baseball game. He later praised his nephew’s leadership in meeting the challenges of the past three years.
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Missouri is also in the political spotlight on the Democratic side, where U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of St. Louis is seeking that party’s nomination. Gephardt is a leading contender in the early-caucus state of Iowa, and for months he has been campaigning and raising money from coast to coast.
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Jim Kottmeyer, executive director of the Missouri Democratic Party, said Gephardt is the strongest Democratic candidate against Bush and said there is "no doubt" that the congressman could beat Bush in Missouri.
This morning’s event also highlighted a new competition among Republicans and Democrats for the vote of America’s largest minority group. Hispanic voters are considered a crucial voting bloc in next year’s election, and the backdrop at the hotel podium was decorated with two slogans: "Bush-Cheney ’04" and "Viva Bush." In addition, representatives of two Hispanic political groups shared the stage with Racicot and the senators.
P.S. Here are the state tallies for the last three presidential elections.
2000
Gore (Dem.) 1,111,138 (47.08)
Bush (Rep.) 1,189,924 (50.42)
1996
Clinton (Dem.) 1,025,935 (47.54)
Dole (Rep.) 890,016 (41.24)
1992
Clinton (Dem.) 1,053,873 (44.07)
Bush (Rep.) 811,159 (33.91)