GFS Model Predicting Tropical Storm/Hurricane For Florida This Week.

[althecat]

(PLEASE NOTE CAREFULLY: What follows is just a computer forecast. The Hurricane Warning Center HAS NOT YET ISSUED A WARNING ABOUT EVEN A TROPICAL STORM YET LET ALONE A HURRICANE... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The latest tropical discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/190608.shtml?
Similarly does not mention this scenario.)

Technically speaking taking raw data like this from a supercomputer readout and forecasting a hurricane is a tad unusual. The Hurricane Warning Center do a great deal of analysis before forecasting a tropical storm. And in this case there is in fact nothing yet in existence. That said in this case we are also looking at a rather unusual forecast i.e. an unusually rapidly forming tropical storm which strengthens very fast.

According to the forecast below which is taken from the latest run of NOAA's GFS MRF model 12hrs-72 hours - a low currently over the Yucatan Peninsula will suddenly deepen and turn into a tropical storm in the next 36 hours and run north East to Florida.

At first glance this looks nasty to me.... and the GFS model is on a good day extremely accurate.

I will be keeping an eye on this and I expect the NHC should be on the case shortly, assuming this isn't a rogue computer run.

Al

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In the images below you can see surface pressure isobars and rainfall in 5mm coloured contours (rainfall is measured over a 6 hour period.) The dates and tines of each forecast image are shown at the bottom of the image.

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[Maddy McCall]

1. I'm watching this, too.

The Weather Channel has been watching the developments on the Yucatan.

I've been checking the NHC website at NOAA off and on for the past several hours.

[althecat]

2. It's odd... it is still there in the model this morning...

But it isn't really as deep as a tropical storm/Hurricane... OTOH it does look like it will bring intense winds and massive rainfall....