Wonder what the odds are of major election upsets in 2006?

[tinfoilinfor2005]

Appears that they're getting better everyday, but was just wondering if anyone has heard any numbers on this yet?
And also, what state races are most apt to go in our favor?

[terrya]

1. If there is just one, I'd love for it to be Santorum.

I do think we have an excellent chance to retake the Senate.

But, I'd dearly love to see Ricky boy defeated.

[ollie79]

8. Santorum, others

Santorum has a good chance of losing. I say we come close to retaking the House and mop up in the Senate. Repugs have had their luck and such, now with Bush's crimes coming out and American frustration it's down hill for the rethugs.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

10. I like your optimism.

Can I vote for you? ;)

[samdogmom]

2. I'm not optimistic!

We've got to get to the bottom of all of the fraud during the last few elections before I feel confident that we actually have a chance!

[WhoWantsToBeOccupied]

3. Are we returning to paper ballots?

If not, how are we going to ensure one vote, one vote?

[helderheid]

7. excellent point

[Norquist Nemesis]

4. Unless we get paper ballots and purple ink fingers

nearly all of the elections will be upsetting.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

6. My county is paper

as are many others which may make the state elections more valid. maybe...

[Norquist Nemesis]

12. Accuvote here

Of course, we're the heart of GOP and Republican Propagationists.

[FreedomAngel82]

11. Not everywhere

uses electronic voting machine's. My area has paper ballots and we have a democratic governor. It starts at the local level to get rid of the machine's. Find a way to present a case to show the machine's don't work and try to get them banned from your state.

[BOSSHOG]

5. Trent Lott solidified his racist base

by not voting for the anti-lynching apology from the Senate. He most likely will be a shoo-in with his poor white trash support. Casey will get a few bucks from this red state democrat. I will gladly assist in any little way to get rid of the dog fucker.

[ollie79]

9. OMG

I use to live in Ms, did Lott really not vote for that bill. What other Senators did not vote? Lott is a kook!

[racaulk]

13. We may pick up a seat in Tennessee

It's not really an upset per se, but Frist is not running for reelection next year due to his potential presidential bid in 2008. Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN) (who I don't know much about but I think he is fairly popular) is running for Frist's seat. http://www.fordfortennessee.com/

[theboss]

14. Santorum may be the best bet

Caseys are hard to beat in PA.

[Lexingtonian]

15. Are there set expectations?

I don't know of any. There's a lot of uncertainty remaining due to retirements- and most politicians don't announce their retirements until a year or less before actual elections.

All I know for fairly certain is that a lot of Republicans whose states and districts are north of the Mason-Dixon line are not going to be reelected. Whether the massacre extends to the north and west of Chicago and the valleys of southern California isn't really clear yet but should have some definite outline in the fall. Next year we should see extremely wobbly Republicans in the Southwest, in southern Florida, in the Virginias, in the eastern Great Lakes, and in the cities of the Ohio Valley.

In the South a lot depends- more on the surface, though, than in substance- on how far and deep the DeLay scandal goes. It's too strongly Bible Belt for Republicans to lose their hold there but the turnover could be substantial. And you have to consider what Southern Democrats are, distinct from the rest of the national party- a chunk of them are better described as Non-Republicans. (Republicans have the same kind of problem with their Northeastern colleagues.)

My own count is that two Democratic governorships can be lost, those of Iowa and Illinois. (It might not even be so bad for the locals to rediscover why you don't vote in Republican governors.) There are about a dozen Republican ones that Democrats can win most of fairly easily.

In the Senate there are four vulnerable Democrats and between six and ten vulnerable Republicans up for election. I don't see how Democrats don't gain at least two and consider eight possible if trend continues. If Arlen Specter has to resign, that's another one that should be picked up.

The House is harder to guesstimate. There are close to no vulnerable Democratic seats- Strickland's in Ohio might be the major one, because he's leaving it- and it's hard to assess just how weak House Republicans have gotten. At the moment I'd say 15-20 vulnerable, Democrats would gain 5-8 if the elections were held today. But if trend continues 40-50 come into reach a year from now and results in November get into the gain of 15-25 range. If the bottom really falls out of Republican policy in the next year and a half, we're probably only limited by the number of sufficiently good candidates outside the Bible Belt.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

16. Thanks for this thoughtful synopsis!

hopefully the trend will continue...