http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377962(you'll have to click the above link to get the links below to work)
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Tue Jun-14-05 11:42 AM
Original message
EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS - 6/14/05 Update
Edited on Tue Jun-14-05 12:10 PM by TruthIsAll
EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS - 6/14/05 Update
My Election Model projections:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel /
National Exit Poll
2:05pm Nov.3, 13660 Respondents
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/U... National Exit Poll
12:22am Nov. 3, 13047 Respondents
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... National Exit Poll
7:38pm Nov 2, 11027 Respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm National Exit Poll Timeline (pdf):
11/2/04, 3:59pm 8349 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3737_PRES04... 11/2/04, 7:33pm 11027 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3798_PRES04... 11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
‘
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... 11/3/04, 1:25pm 13660 respondents: Kerry 48-Bush 51
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3970_PRES04... ELECTION 2004: THE COMPLETE GRAPHICAL REFERENCE
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 01:57 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... ELECTION INCIDENT REPORTING SYSTEM (EIRS)
https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&... OPTIMIZER: EXIT POLL RESPONSE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Mon Jun-13-05 08:19 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... LET'S RUN THE OPTIMIZER ASSUMING RELUCTANT KERRY RESPONDERS (rKr)
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 09:52 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... What are the odds?
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 05:26 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... POLL BAD, VOTE COUNT GOOD: The RW (M)ost (O)utrageous (E)xcrement
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 12:25 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... EXIT POLL ALPHA OPTIMIZER: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM BUSH AND KERRY VOTE% SHOW...
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 09:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... HERE IS WHAT BUSH NEEDED TO DO IN ORDER TO WIN 51.23%
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 12:56 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... QUANTS: To match WPE = - 6.77%, Optimizer needs wtd alpha >= 1.15
Edited on Fri Jun-10-05 02:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... ANY OF YOU QUANTS CARE TO COMMENT ON THIS?
Edited on Thu Jun-09-05 11:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... OPTIMIZER: Assume the PLAUSIBLE scenario that the exit polls were RIGHT
Edited on Wed Jun-08-05 02:20 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... TO BAIMAN, FEBBLE, OTOH, TFC, O'DELL, etc: IS rBr PLAUSIBLE?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 04:15 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... WHAT IS THE EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER TELLING US ABOUT rBr?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 10:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... ENTER YOUR OWN EXIT POLL MODEL INPUTS TO HELP DEBUNK rBr.
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 05:00 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL: Bush needed 55.2% of refusers
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 02:33 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Exit Poll Response Optimization Analysis (Max/min Kerry/Bush vote%)
Edited on Wed Jun-01-05 11:43 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Non-linear optimization (Excel "Solver") proves rBr is Null and Void
Edited on Tue May-31-05 02:27 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... AVG OF 80,000 EXIT POLL RESPONSE CURVE SIMULATIONS: KERRY BY 6 MIL VOTES!
Edited on Mon May-30-05 09:34 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... IMPLAUSIBLE rBr: I just ran a 100,000 trial simulation...
Edited on Mon May-30-05 07:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Poll question: Which of these facts convinced you that the election was stolen?
Edited on Fri May-27-05 10:06 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Census/Exit Poll Gender Vote Probability Analysis
Edited on Sat May-28-05 12:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... 2-3 MILLION LOST KERRY VOTES? CENSUS: 125.7MM; RECORDED: 122.3MM!
Edited on Thu May-26-05 05:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... CENSUS DATA MATCHED NATIONAL EXIT POLL WEIGHTS(12:22AM, 13047 SAMPLE)
Edited on Fri May-27-05 07:50 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... The Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff (2004)
Edited on Thu May-26-05 12:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... A Long Trip Down the Denial River of Doubt
Edited on Wed May-25-05 10:13 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Another probability analysis to illustrate why rBr is implausible....
Edited on Wed May-25-05 01:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Do they really expect us to believe all that nonsense?
Edited on Tue May-24-05 08:03 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... A new Poly Sci Statistic:The sBr (Shy Bush Responder) differential
Edited on Tue May-24-05 03:11 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... IS rBr STILL BREATHING? THE REQUIRED BUSH % OF REFUSERS IS IMPOSSIBLE!
Edited on Sun May-22-05 01:34 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... THE EAST WAS THE rBr BEAST
Edited on Sun May-22-05 11:20 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Exposing the Myths: One by One
Edited on Sat May-21-05 10:30 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... rBr: The Bush voter equivalent of WMD. There's no there there.
Edited on Wed May-18-05 10:39 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Prob (86 of 88 screens switch K to B): 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000
Edited on Sun May-15-05 10:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... AAPOR? ESI? Does Not Prove Fraud?
Edited on Sun May-15-05 09:17 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... YOU WANT KERRY? PRESS RIGHT HERE. DON'T YOU WORRY
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... NON-RESPONSE BIAS? HERE'S WHY IT HURT KERRY MORE THAN BUSH..
Edited on Sat May-14-05 05:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... To Believe that Bush won.....
Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:21 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS: THE RBR HYPOTHESIS IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!
Edited on Sat May-14-05 01:34 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Can someone explain this RBR inconsistency?
Edited on Sat May-14-05 07:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Freeper Logic: aBr, the Alzheimer Bush Responder Hypothesis
Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:38 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... MORE NUMERICAL EVIDENCE KERRY WON: 2004 TURNOUT SCENARIOS
Edited on Thu May-12-05 08:24 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Probability that 86 of 88 BBV's would switch Kerry votes to Bush?
Edited on Thu May-12-05 10:43 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... 3 NAT. EXIT POLL GRAPHS: TIMELINE, KERRY MARGINS, VOTER TURNOUT
Edited on Thu May-12-05 09:18 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... We should all rejoice in the promotion of the rBr Liepothesis.
Edited on Wed May-11-05 03:07 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... WHERE DID BUSH FIND 13 MILLION NEW VOTES?
Edited on Tue May-10-05 09:00 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... BYE, BYE rBr: IMPLAUSIBLE VOTER TURNOUT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Tue May-10-05 02:40 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Could 14.4% of Gore voters have voted for Bush?
Edited on Sun May-08-05 09:32 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... YOU DECIDE: DO THESE FIVE SCENARIOS MAKE rBr IRRELEVANT?
Edited on Sun May-08-05
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Even assuming rBr, it takes a MIRACLE to reverse Kerry's 51-48% margin
Edited on Sat May-07-05 02:30 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Our Evidence vs. Their Evidence
Edited on Sat May-07-05 01:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Yes, the Reluctant Republican Responder (3%) was a KERRY voter!
Edited on Sat May-07-05 03:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... FEBBLE: WILL YOU COMMENT ON THIS MYSTERY?
Edited on Tue May-03-05 09:28 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... The Reluctant Gore Responder (RGR)
Edited on Mon May-02-05 01:50 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... A PUZZLE: THE NATIONAL VS. STATE GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC MATCH-UP
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 01:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... 12:22am State Exit Poll Gender Breakout: Kerry won 329 EV
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 04:00 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... HOW KERRY WON OHIO BY 51-48%...
Edited on Fri Apr-29-05 10:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEP TIMELINE
Edited on Thu Apr-28-05 07:25 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... THE 13047 NATIONAL EXIT POLL CONFIRMS THE STATE EXIT POLLS WITHIN .06%
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... STATE / NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS BY REGION
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 03:10 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... A TIA CHALLENGE: REFUTE THESE ODDS!
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 06:16 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Z-score Probability (Bush Z>1 in 35 states): 1 in 4500 trillion
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 01:28 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Red Shift: Z-scores and Probabilities. Take a deep breath.
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 03:26 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... The Exit Poll Gender Demographic: Another Smoking Gun?
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 09:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Truth: 0 to 13,047; Fiction: 13,048 - 13,660
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... The MoE Formula: Mitofsky agrees its 1.0% for over 8000 respondents
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 05:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Bush Exit Poll Job Approval: A smoking gun?
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:07 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... TIMELINE
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:30 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... U.S. General Election Poll-7:37pm: "Estimates NOT for on-air use"
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 12:31 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... FL Optiscans vs. Touchscreens: Prob of 9% discrepancy (1 in 12.7 trillion)
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 02:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Jan 3 post on the IMPOSSIBLE How Voted weight is NOT from me!
Edited on Sun Apr-17-05 04:29 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... The National Exit Poll: A Tragedy in Three Acts
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 10:59 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Calc the SAMPLE-SIZE for any MoE and confidence level
Edited on Thu Apr-14-05 09:53 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... National Exit Poll Analysis: Using FACTUAL Historic Data
Edited on Mon Apr-11-05 10:58 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... I'M REALLY CONFUSED. WAS THERE A (N)ATURAL (B)USH (R)ESPONDER? Edited on Sun Apr-10-05 02:10 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... WHICH IS IT: RBR OR EBR ?
Edited on Sat Apr-09-05 09:35 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... OK, THERE WAS THIS BUSH "BANDWAGON" EFFECT...
Edited on Fri Apr-08-05 09:49 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER OR REINCARNATED BUSH RESPONDER?
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 03:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Another National Exit Poll Mystery: The Gender Vote. Can you solve it?
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 11:24 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Another Exit Poll Mystery: Party ID. Can you solve it?
Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 02:52 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... From Selection 2000 to 2004 (NEP): Voted, Died, Reborn, Did Not Vote
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 09:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... IF YOU BELIEVE THESE 5 IRREFUTABLE FACTS, THEN YOU MUST ALSO BELIEVE...
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 12:58 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... A 9TH GRADE ALGEBRAIC SMOKING GUN
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 01:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... THE FINAL EXIT POLL MYSTERY: THE IMPOSSIBLE 43% Bush / 37% Gore MIX...
Edited on Wed Mar-30-05 11:13 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: THE KERRY NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN OF VICTORY...
Tue Mar-29-05 08:35 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... View the Mathematical FACTS for the TRUTH...
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 10:38 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... FASTEN SEAT BELTS. THIS IS THE CLINCHER.
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 01:47 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... WORTH REPEATING: FINAL NEP PADDED MINIMUM OF 3.85 MIL TO BUSH VOTE
Edited on Mon Mar-28-05 02:18 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... KERRY WINS 57 OF 60 NEP SCENARIOS: NEW VOTERS VS. 2000 VOTER TURNOUT
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 11:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 06:16 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Reluctant Bush Responder? Or Resurrected Bush Responder?
Edited on Fri Mar-25-05 05:43 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Part IV. To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe …
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 12:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS...
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000...
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:30 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... 100% ABSOLUTE PROOF: FINAL NEP OVERSTATED BUSH VOTE BY AT LEAST 2 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 02:01 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... THE MAGIC 613 FINAL RESPONDENTS: FROM 13047 TO 13660
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 10:26 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... FOUR VERY RED FLAGS....
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:38 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE: THE FULL STORY IN 3 GRAPHS
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 09:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... PROBABILITY TABLE: Exit Poll Margin of Error vs. Vote Deviation
Edited on Thu Mar-17-05 12:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy: Explained
Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 01:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... A SUMMARY EXIT POLL MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION
Edited on Mon Mar-14-05 10:54 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... IF THIS PRELIMINARY NEP WEIGHT WAS CORRECT, WHY WAS IT CHANGED?
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 04:53 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Lynn Landes, this is for you.
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 06:24 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... THIS EXIT POLL SIMULATION TEST BLOWS AWAY THE NEDERLAND "PROOF"
Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 12:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... The Recorded votes and Final Exit poll are bogus.
Edited on Fri Mar-11-05 10:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... GRAPHS: 1988-2004 Prelim. Nat. Exit Poll - Trend reversal in 2004
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 11:11 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... A Mathematical proof: Preliminary Exit polls are accurate
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 09:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... The Nat Exit Poll Crime Line: 7:58pm(K) to 12:22am (K) to 2:04pm (B)
Edited on Mon Mar-07-05 11:55 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Check. Mate.
Edited on Sun Mar-06-05 04:03 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?
Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 01:23 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... MITOFSKY EXIT POLL CAVEAT: "FINAL PERCENTAGES MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY"
Edited on Fri Feb-25-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... SO IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660?
Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 09:40 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS
Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY
Edited on Sat Feb-12-05 12:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC OF ALL: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE NEW
Edited on Fri Feb-11-05 01:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... 1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Bush probabilities for Party-ID weights in the National Exit Poll
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 04:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...