Iran's oil reserves estimated to last for 93 years.

[LiberalAndProud]

http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-237/0506221029181346.htm
-snip-
Meanwhile, Director of the Technical Operations Department at Oil Exploration Operations Company Ali-Reza Saeedi told the audience that crude reserves worldwide stands at 1.147 trillion barrels, 63.3 percent of which are in Middle East.

Saeedi said 97 percent of the Middle East crude lies in Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait.

He said that 28 billion barrels out of 130 billion barrels of proved reserves in Iran are liquid gases and the country's crude reserve is estimated to last for 93 years.

[BlueEyedSon]

1. Well, the current rate of extraction is extremely low because of

the security situation.

The entirety of the earth's reserves will last 30 years at the current rate of use (but as we know it will only increase....).

[LiberalAndProud]

4. Point taken.

One must wonder if the 93yr estimate takes into account increased output aims.

http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-18/0506291290191410.htm

-snip-
China National Petroleum Corporation started work on the first phase of a project for recovery and extraction of oil from 10 wells in southern Masjid Soleyman oil field based on a buy-back contract signed with Iran.

The project consultant Iraj Rezai told IRNA here on Wednesday that the Chinese party holds 75 percent or dlrs 85 million worth of stakes in the project, while Iran's Naftgaran Company holds 25 percent of shares worth dlrs 15 million in the project. The project was initially granted to Canada's Sheer Energy by National Iranian Oil Company.

Rezai said the project aims to increase the output of the oil wells to 28,000 bpd from their present 5,000 bpd in the first phase. It also seeks production of an additional 10,000 bpd through recovery of another 22 wells and establishment of an oil refinery in Zilaie district in Masjid Soleyman.
-snip-
The buy-back deal for the development project was signed on May 28, 2002, by National Iranian Oil Company and Sheer Energy Inc. of Canada to raise the output of the country's first oil field in Masjid Soleyman discovered nearly 100 years ago.
-snip-
The Masjed Soleyman field was discovered in 1908 and was the first to be exploited in Iran.

[LiberalAndProud]

5. Do you have a source for the 30-yr estimate?

"30 years reserves" google-search got me a page full of "all-volunteer" army and (?) Rumsfeld at the Grand Ole Opry.

I did find:

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_14-4-2005_pg7_9
Thursday, April 14, 2005

Daulatabad gas reserves enough for 30 years, says Jadoon

By Khalid Mustafa

ISLAMABAD: Daulatabad gas fields in Turkmenistan have sufficient reserves to supply gas to the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) pipeline for up to 30 years, but this will be verified by a detailed verification report to be submitted by Turkmenistan after a month, Petroleum Minister Amanullah Jadoon told journalists on Wednesday after a two-day meeting of a steering committee consisting of ministers from the three countries.

[BlueEyedSon]

6. amount of reserves divided by yearly consuption

1 Trillon bbl / (80 million bbl/day * 365 days/yr ) = 34

[LiberalAndProud]

7. Thanks for that.

Where can I find the daily consumption figure?

[BlueEyedSon]

9. Google. Dontcha trust me?

:evilgrin:

FYI some "experts" claim that there are 1.5 Tbbl of reserves.

Be aware that the first half of the oil comes out of a well easily, the rest takes a bunch of energy to pull up. IOW the energy returned on energy invested (ERoEI) goes down - to the point that eventually a barrel of oil takes more than a barrel's worth of energy to get it. In the end, we will "never" run out of oil since there will be plenty of oil left whose recovery just isn't worth it.

[LiberalAndProud]

10. I trust you! honest!

But maybe you "heard somewhere" and "believe it".

I did find 75.226 (Millions of barrels per day) = 28,460 consumption. So I'll take your 30 as reasonable.

Thanks.

[BlueEyedSon]

11. the numbers i kick around are 80 mil world and 20 mil/day for USA

we consume 25%

[EVDebs]

21. News article yesterday said 84 million barrel/day world usage

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[CityZen-X]

23. 93 Years?

If thats so, that will be the length of commitment of U.S. troops in Iraq! Why didn't Chimpy state that in his Bu$h*t speech last night?

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[BlueEyedSon]

16. The math is the math. 30 years, max. Peak oil will be this decade.

BTW, who stands to gain more from forcasting finite oil? Dems or reps?

Here's a hint:
ExxonMobile
Texaco
Shell

[EVDebs]

20. Check out www.oilendgame.com with Amory Lovins

[LiberalAndProud]

24. Thanks EVDebs! Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Ring of Fire) sent me to

that sight not long ago. And I also found this:
http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=hydrogen-en

Welcome to Shell Hydrogen

President Bush visits Shell's Benning Road hydrogen station

25/05/2005

The President of the United States of America, George Bush, visited Shell's Hydrogen Station in Washington, D.C and met with energy and auto industry executives.


Could it be we've discovered a BIPARTISAN issue? I thought there weren't any of those left.

[justinsb]

2. Does that timeline take into account

Rising demand in places like China, India and Brazil?

[Massacure]

12. No. If we break this into a table though.

Let us assume that the demand increases 3% per year and we start with 1,000,000 million barrels.

The first year we use 80 million barrels of oil per day, or 29,200 million barrels per year.

2005 = 29200 used =
2006 = 30076 used
2007 = 30978 used
2008 = 31990 used
2009 = 32865 used
2010 = 33851 used = 811,040 million barrels left
2011 = 34867 used
2012 = 35913 used
2013 = 36990 used
2014 = 38100 used
2015 = 39244 used = 625,926 million barrels left
2016 = 40421 used
2017 = 41634 used
2018 = 42833 used
2019 = 44169 used
2020 = 45495 used 411,374 million barrels left
2021 = 46589 used
2022 = 48265 used
2023 = 49713 used
2024 = 51205 used
2025 = 52741 used 162,861 million barrels left
2026 = 54323 used
2027 = 55953 used
2028 = 57632 used <- there are -5,047 million barrels left.

Tht took me a while to do. Is there any simpler formula to do other than making out a table?

[BlueEyedSon]

15. Probably a mortgage formula or compound interest formula

with logarithms 'n shit

[Massacure]

19. Then you get how long it takes to use a trillion barrels a year.

Not how long the oil last.

[LiberalAndProud]

3. For those not likely to click on links... Leading paragraphs.

As a committed OPEC member and an oil producer, Iran feels itself duty-bound to address growing oil demand worldwide, said an Iranian official here on Wednesday.

In an address to the the third annual meeting on oil exploration operations, Deputy Head of National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) Mehdi Hosseini stressed the need for development of oil industry in Iran to meet international demands, saying there will be demand for 120 million bpd in the next 25 years which requires an investment of six trillion dollars in the oil industry.
-snip-

Please consider the source (Islamic Republic News Agency).

[EVDebs]

22. China wants a US-style auto industry...with gasoline use to match ?

[JohnyCanuck]

8. Exponential growth makes a big difference.

Most times when folks say this country's or this region's reserves will last X number of years, that's assuming the extraction rates remain constant at current levels, which is frequently not the case. To better understand what constant increases in the rate of extraction or production of a resource means to the long term viability of that resource, check out the presentation on exponential growth and resource depletion by Physics Prof. Al Bartlett from the the University of Colorado.

Real Player (high speed connection required):
http://edison.ncssm.edu/programs/colloquia/bartlett.ram

MP4 version for slower connections. Should work with Quick Time or Real Player. Right click and save file to disk.

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

[LiberalAndProud]

17. On the Demand side of things, there is this:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/Demand_text.htm

Gasoline is the perfect example of a consumer product: available everywhere, purchased often and in easy transactions. Its consumption accounts for almost 45 percent of all oil use (see graph). The dominance of gasoline in the oil mix is not new; gasoline has been the most important oil product since the 1920's. The quest to maximize gasoline production has been the driver in the development of refinery technology and design in the United States, as discussed in the section on refining.

After the Arab Oil Embargo, the implementation of gasoline consumption standards for new passenger cars (the "Corporate Average Fuel Economy" or CAFE standards) was important in moderating gasoline demand growth, even while both the number of cars on the road and the miles they traveled increased. Beginning in the early 1990's, however, the burgeoning popularity of pick-up trucks and sports utility vehicles (SUV's) for passenger travel has sparked new gasoline demand growth. These light trucks and SUV's are not as fuel efficient as standard automobiles and, as they have become more and more popular, have reduced the average fuel economy of cars on the road. (Whereas the fleet averages for light trucks and SUV's must be at least 20.7 miles per gallon, automobiles must average a minimum of 27.5 miles per gallon)

It seems there might be a lot in this equation under our control.

[LiberalAndProud]

18. Family in Redondo Beach to Evaluate Hydrogen Car

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hydro29jun29,1,6619093.story?coll=la-headlines-business

In a long-term road test, John Spallino, his wife and two daughters will begin leasing a four-seat Honda FCX today to get them to work, school and anywhere else they want to roam.

The Spallinos will provide reports about the car's performance to Honda as part of the auto industry's first private test of the promising technology that produces only one byproduct: water clean enough to drink.
-snip-
President Bush, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and others say cars run by converting hydrogen to electricity will one day wean the nation of its oil dependence while reducing air pollution.

Environmentalists counter that some automakers are using that promise to avoid improving fuel-efficiency in current models.

[BlueEyedSon]

25. Hydrogen cars are a waste of time

[LiberalAndProud]

26. Why?

- u got some splainin' to do -

[BlueEyedSon]

27. Tell me why you think they're great.

its easier if i just dispel the myth or 2 that you are laboring under, rather than writing a TOME about all the probs.

[LiberalAndProud]

28. I don't think they're great.

To tell the truth, I haven't formed an opinion yet.

If I understand the gist of your post, the arguments against are numerous and the arguments for are few.

So far, I have discerned 2 arguments for:
- Reduction in polluting emissions
- Reduced dependence on diminishing oil reserves

And 2 arguments against:
- Fuel infrastructure would have to change (a fuel station every 180 miles?)
- Reduced trunk space

How am I doing so far?


on edit-I should check spelling BEFORE I post.

[JohnyCanuck]

30. In comparison to oil, hydrogen is an energy sink.

Or current industrial and economic infrastructure has been built on the back of oil based fuels which to date have had a very high EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested). It's that high EROEI that makes petroleum derived products so attractive as fuel and energy sources. In other words from a barrel of oil we can take a relatively small volume of that barrel's contents and use it to find, pump and produce lots more barrels of oil to provide us the energy burning/wasting lifestyles to which we have become accustomed. However, hydrogen by comparison is an energy sink in that it takes more energy to produce a given volume of hydrogen than the hydrogen returns when burnt or used in a fuel cell. Plus, there are other drawbacks to hydrogen as well such as difficulty in storing and transporting.

Hydrogen economy: energy and economic black hole

by Alice Friedemann

<snip>

Hydrogen isn’t an energy source – it’s an energy carrier, like a battery. You have to make it and put energy into it, both of which take energy. Hydrogen has been used commercially for decades, so at least we don't have to figure out how to do this, or what the cheapest, most efficient method is.

Ninety-six percent of hydrogen is made from fossil fuels, mainly to refine oil and hydrogenate vegetable oil--the kind that gives you heart attacks (1). In the United States, ninety percent of hydrogen is made from natural gas, with an efficiency of 72% (2). Efficiency is how much energy you get back compared with how much energy you started out with. So an efficiency of seventy-two percent means you've lost 28% of the energy contained in the natural gas to make hydrogen. And that doesn’t count the energy it took to extract and deliver the natural gas to the hydrogen plant.

Only four percent of hydrogen is made from water. This is done with electricity, in a process called electrolysis. Hydrogen is only made from water when the hydrogen must be extremely pure. Most electricity is generated from fossil fuel driven plants that are, on average, 30% efficient. Where does the other seventy percent of the energy go? Most is lost as heat, and some as it travels through the power grid.

Electrolysis is 70% efficient. To calculate the overall efficiency of making hydrogen from water, the standard equation is to multiply the efficiency of each step. In this case you would multiply the 30% efficient power plant times the 70% efficient electrolysis to get an overall efficiency of 20%. This means you have used four units of energy to create one unit of hydrogen energy (3). (Emphasis added)

http://www.energybulletin.net/4541.html

Excerpted from "Much Ado About Nothing" - Published by FTW Dec. 5, 2002. written by Dale Allen Pfeiffer
Spencer Abraham's Hydrogen Dream

<snip>

First off, because hydrogen is the simplest element, it will leak from any container, no mater how strong and no matter how well insulated. For this reason, hydrogen in storage tanks will always evaporate, at a rate of at least 1.7 percent per day.29 Hydrogen is very reactive. When hydrogen gas comes into contact with metal surfaces it decomposes into hydrogen atoms, which are so very small that they can penetrate metal. This causes structural changes that make the metal brittle.30

Perhaps the largest problem for hydrogen fuel cell transportation is the size of the fuel tanks. In gaseous form, a volume of 238,000 litres of hydrogen gas is necessary to replace the energy capacity of 20 gallons of gasoline.31

So far, demonstrations of hydrogen-powered cars have depended upon compressed hydrogen. Because of its low density, compressed hydrogen will not give a car as useful a range as gasoline.32 Moreover, a compressed hydrogen fuel tank would be at risk of developing pressure leaks either through accidents or through normal wear, and such leaks could result in explosions.

If the hydrogen is liquefied, this will give it a density of 0.07 grams per cubic centimeter. At this density, it will require four times the volume of gasoline for a given amount of energy. Thus, a 15-gallon gas tank would equate to a 60-gallon tank of liquefied hydrogen. Beyond this, there are the difficulties of storing liquid hydrogen. Liquid hydrogen is cold enough to freeze air. In test vehicles, accidents have occurred from pressure build-ups resulting from plugged valves.33

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/081803_hydrogen_answers.html

[LiberalAndProud]

31. Thanks again. Should we not attempt manned flight because of gravity?

In your opinion, are these insurmountable barriers, or are they problems to be overcome?

If insurmountable barriers, what are the alternatives? (Seems we have a little over 30 years to get it figured out.)

[BlueEyedSon]

34. Looks like i'll have to write that tome after all

[BlueEyedSon]

32. BINGO!

[BlueEyedSon]

33. Reduced trunk space??? LMFAO! Yeah, thats how to evaluate the feasibility

of new technology!

The problem with the infrastructure is not the distance, where I live there is a gas station every 180 feet, plus the range of a Hummer (or 1977 station wagon) is probably less than 180 miles as it is.

Hydrogen is a highly reactive, lighter-than-air gas. It takes a LOT of energy to keep it in a liquid state. It destroys and/or seeps through almost everything it touches.

Oh, did I mention the Hindenburg?

[LiberalAndProud]

35. This Hindenburg?

http://www.clean-air.org/hindenberg.htm
Myth: Hindenburg Fire In 1937 Proves That Hydrogen Is Too Dangerous For The Public To Use.
Excerpted from "The Philosopher Mechanic" by Roy McAlister

Regardless of much speculation, translation of a letter handwritten in German on June 28, 1937, by Hindenburg investigator and electrical engineer Otto Beyersdorff states "The actual cause of the fire was the extreme easy flammability of the covering material brought about by discharges of an electrostatic nature ..." Recently, NASA investigator Dr. Addison Bain has verified this finding by scientific experiments that duplicated the vigorous ignition by static discharge to the aluminum powder filled covering material. Spectacular colors of this type of combustion were produced from the burning skin of the giant airship. Dr. Bain concluded that the Hindenburg would have burned and crashed even if helium would have been used as the lifting gas. Dr. Bain noted that the particular type of aluminum powder particles, which are flake like in shape, are particularly sensitive to electrical discharge.

Hydrogen is about fifteen-times lighter than air. After ignition by the violently burning surface varnish, flames from hydrogen combustion traveled upward, far away from the crew and passengers in the cabins below. What fell to the ground with the passengers were burning shrouds from the exterior fabric, a large inventory of diesel fuel, and combustible materials that were in the cabins. Thirty-three persons were killed in the Hindenburg fire. The flames that continued to be supported by heavier-than-air materials, fabric and diesel fuel continued for hours.

[BlueEyedSon]

36. so maybe we should run cars on canvas and aluminum powder?

I guess there's more energy in them.....

Anyway Hydrogen is an energy SINK, not a source.

My guess is that currently, using H2 would cost 10x per mile traveled vs gasoline.

[LiberalAndProud]

37. LOL. Yea, but don't forget the diesel fuel.

Research goes on, even if it is a waste of time.
http://www.albanynanotech.org/News/index.cfm?step=show_detail&NewsID=280
"While the world's demand for energy is projected to double by 2050 in response to population growth and the industrialization of developing countries, the supply of fossil fuels is limited, with restrictive shortages of oil and gas projected to occur within our lifetimes," said Pradeep Haldar, Director of E2TAC and Executive Director of NENY. "With global oil and gas reserves concentrated in a few regions of the world, the development alternative clean energy sources is vital to both our environmental well-being and our national security. NENY's goal, and that of its clean energy networks, is to enhance the parallel development of the various clean energy technologies emerging today, positioning New York state firmly in the lead of this important and growing industry."

"Fuel cell power represents one of the most promising methods for facilitating alternative energy in development today, but it requires major breakthroughs in understanding, materials and design to become a truly vibrant and competitive force," said Peter Smith, President of NYSERDA. "By bringing together some of the world's largest players in commercial fuel cell research, NENY's New York Fuel Cell Network will work together to hasten the development of both the technological applications and the economic infrastructure needed to take fuel cell technology to the next level."


But they seem to be aware of your concerns.
http://www.hamburg-messe.de/H2Expo/h2_en/facts.php?menu=Subject
The storage of hydrogen, which results as an easily fleeting gas from the process described above, is currently one of the major challenges for H2 technology. Among the methods which scientists and companies jointly work on, are:
- Storage of liquefied hydrogen in cryogenic tanks at minus 253 centigrade
- Storage of compressed hydrogen in pressure vessels,
the current stanard is 700 bar (10,000 psi)
- Storage in methal hydrides (solid material storage)
- Storage by means of sodium borohydride
More information on the different methods of hydrogen storage is available on the GKSS website. The GKSS Research Center in Geesthacht near Hamburg is a partner of H2Expo and co-organizer of the "H2 for students" program.
www.gkss.de

It's interesting that the big oil companies (Shell among others) are heavily researching and implementing this dead end.
http://www.shell.com/static/hydrogen-en/downloads/speeches/speech_nha1.pdf
Demonstrating in all the major hydrogen markets
An important step for us, of course, was opening the very first publicly accessible Shell-branded hydrogen refuelling station in the world in Reykjavik, just 2 years ago. In Europe, since then, we've helped set up hydrogen stations for fuel cell buses in Amsterdam and Luxembourg, as part of the Clean Urban Transport for Europe initiative.

On another continent, the Japan Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Demonstration Project - or JHFC - is progressing well, with 10 refueling stations around the Tokyo metropolitan area serving more than 50 FCVs. The Ariake station that Shell operates is the most highly used of these stations, which means it's probably the most utilised hydrogen station in the world. Indeed, when I last visited Japan, I actually saw a queue of FCVs waiting to be refuelled! And these from as many as eight different auto manufacturers.

[LiberalAndProud]

29. Also, I thought this was encouraging.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/08/0827_040827_hydrogen_energy.html

Scientists have known for a long time how to split water into its two elements, oxygen and hydrogen. But the problem is that the process requires electricity—typically derived from fossil fuels—which makes the process counterproductive and expensive.

Janusz Nowotny and Charles Sorrell are researchers from the Centre for Materials Research in Energy Conversion at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia. They have been looking for an economical way to use titanium dioxide to act as a catalyst to split water into oxygen and hydrogen—using solar energy.

Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is widely used as a white pigment in paint, paper, cosmetics, sunscreens, and toothpastes. It is found in its purest form in rutile, a beach sand but is also extracted from certain ores. Rio Tinto, a mining company that produces titanium oxide, helps fund Nowotny's and Sorrell's research.

Nowotny and Sorrell announced their breakthrough today at the International Conference on Materials for Hydrogen Energy, hosted by the University of New South Wales in Sydney. They believe they have found a way to considerably improve the productivity of the solar hydrogen process (using sunlight to extract hydrogen from water) using a device made out of titanium dioxide.

"This is potentially huge, with a market the size of all the existing markets for coal, oil, and gas combined,'' Nowotny said in a news statement released ahead of the conference. "Based on our research results, we know we are on the right track."