In case you haven't been paying attention...things are about to get worse.

[MazeRat7]

What ? Worse ? WTF ?

I am not an alarmist by any means, but as an engineer I have this terrible habit of analyzing things to death. Point in case, I have been recently investing in alternative energy companies since I "suspected" recent increases in oil prices were not going to be a passing fad. As part of that analysis, I have been trying to figure out when demand for fuel cells and the like will really start to take off. To understand that, I needed to better understand when oil production would start to decline. That of course lead to a bunch of chewy articles of which I have included only three for your reference.

The bottom line for those that dont care to read every word of every article is that

1) The global peak oil production could arrive in as early as 3 years

2) Global reserves have been drastically over estimated

3) The cost of oil will only continue to increase well beyond $60/bbl

Here are the links if you care for some detailed reading....

http://www.energybulletin.net/5654.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GF29Ak01.html

http://www.dhushara.com/book/diversit/extra/oil/oil2.htm

MZr7

[madeline_con]

1. Wouldn't the push to ...

increase Alaskan production indicate the Big Oilys know the crunch is coming?

A timeline of three years in which to build additional terminals would make the salvation by Alaska come right on time, wouldn't it?

BTW, I'm sure the naysayers have their fingers in that pie, too.

[Spider Jerusalem]

3. The idea that Alaskan oil will "save" anything is ridiculous...

USGS estimates put the petroleum reserves in ANWR at about 7 billion barrels, plus or minus...which is enough to satisfy US demand, at current rates, for about a year. The first production won't be online for ten years, by which time demand will only have increased. And everything I've seen indicates that any ANWR production is likely to be exported to Asia rather than used to satisfy domestic demand.

So it's essentially a drop in the bucket, and not going to affect the long-term picture very much or at all.

[madeline_con]

15. "... not going to affect the long-term picture ..."

Could it keep the wolves away from the door for a little while longer?

[Spider Jerusalem]

16. Not that much longer...

and the fact that the reserves are enough to supply the US for a year doesn't mean that they'll all be available; the actual extraction rate will probably be much lower, and very insignificant in terms of meeting demand (currently 20M bbl/day for the US, probably 25M or more by 2015, when the first wells come online).

[madeline_con]

17. Thanks for the info

:)

[punpirate]

11. ANWR drilling is not about big profits...

... from the oil--it's about the drilling subsidies from the US government. If the exploration and drilling weren't completely subsidized and indemnified by legislation and tax benefits, the industry wouldn't bother with it.

Cheers.

[SomewhereOutThere424]

25. Alaskan oil...

Is going overseas anyway, isn't it? Even if it helped someone, I doubt it would help us.

I think the whole alaskan oil thing is just the bush administration abusing its right to bully things.

[The Traveler]

2. I'm an engineer, too

So I relate to your addiction to analysis. It really sucks sometimes. Like, when you take a minute and think through the implications of hitting peak oil just when global warming seems to be really taking off and the gulf stream does seem to be about to shut down and ...

You get my drift. We're running over uncharted territory here ... how can we possibly predict in detail how it is gonna go down?

[MazeRat7]

4. Who knows... but the indicators all look really bad.

One of the articles I didn't include indicated that we only have about a 1.5million bbl/day margin of error in production to maintain global economic stability. Not sure what weight I give that estimate... but given the daily global consumption rate... that is a razor thin margin of error. One disaster (natural or man made) in any of the 5-7 major oil production countries would have devastating results.

MZr7

[Beam Me Up]

8. But there is yet another difference.

Those of us who choose to pay attention to all that is going on in the world KNOW that we are "over uncharted territory" (historically speaking).

It is very interesting that from a certain point of view, things are moving toward disintegration along alarming lines and scales, while at the same time we share more information more rapidly than at any other time in the known past.

Is there any real possibility of an emerging global consciousness arising out of the information swarm? And if so, how could it begin to be effective toward saving our sorry asses from what looks like to some of us a fate worse than death?

[SnowGoose]

27. Hey, thanks for sharing that link!

It's pretty neato - I also wonder about the development of a new kind of meta-culture and whatnot. We're in uncharted territory in more than one sense.

[Tsiyu]

5. Watched Tom Brokaw on Letterman tonight

discussing the stranglehold Saudi Arabia has over the US due to our oil consumption. I know. I know. Brokaw is a yutz, but he did bring up the Saudi/terrorist/oil connection. SA is breeding terrorists faster than any other nation, and those terrorists are heading for *'s quagmire in Iraq.

But * can't say anything because instead of exploring alternative energy he would rather kiss the Saudi's booties to keep his buddies in oil wealthy. As long as they're set up in their paradise of wealth, what the hell do they care?


To his credit, Letterman brought up alternative energy as a solution. The comment seemed to fly right over Brokaw's head, which oughta tell us all something....

[atommom]

6. Thanks for the links! Will the media wait again to speak up

until it's far too late...?

[Radio_Lady]

10. This is very difficult stuff to read this late at night. I was looking

for something light hearted.

My son-in-law is planning to buy a car this weekend. Maybe he should get a horse, mule, or a camel instead. Can a camel live in rainy Oregon???

Goodnight and good luck.

[oxbow]

7. Have you seen "the Death of Suburbia?"

excellent documentary that says pretty much the same thing.

[lectrobyte]

29. Do you mean The End of Suburbia, or something

different? http://www.endofsuburbia.com/ everyone should see it.

[BrklynLiberal]

9. No problem. Bush says we can use coal.

:sarcasm:

[AnotherMother4Peace]

12. So tell me, what alternative energy companies are you investing in?

I'm looking to batten down the hatches to weather the upcoming storms, & I'm hoping my pension will be there when I retire.

[MazeRat7]

13. Several... some that I have the highest hopes for are

Energy Conservation Devices (ENER)
Medis Technologies (MDTL)
Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)

Warning: These are VERY high risk.. but I like where they are going.

MZr7

[sandboxface]

14. Well, yea...

For some of us, this isn't news, BTW.

Things get even more complicated when you factor in global trade of goods and finance. China is starting to test their might and that could easily turn into a trade war, or even military war.

A suggestion I have is: exchange for gold and silver.

Notice I am not saying 'buy' gold and silver. That's because they are REAL money and money is exchanged, not bought. In fact, gold and silver are the ONLY MONEY SANCTIONED IN THE CONSTITUTION. What were once a liability of the bank, our dollars are just paper. Most people don't realize this. The founding fathers knew the pitfalls of fiat currency from history, and they tried to protect our country from it.

Even if Peak Oil isn't a reality, the underlying notion of gathering hard assets (as apposed to financial assets, which have dominated out economy for the last 35 years) is very real today. The alarm isn't ringing, yet. However the smart people are already shifting their positions. Gold and silver are good insurance for rocky roads ahead.

If any of you are interested in learning more about gold and silver, drop me a message. I have been doing lots of research on the US financial system for the past 6 months and have accumulated lots of good resources.

Oh, BTW, that video BEAM ME UP posted is AMAZING!
http://www.aeschatech.com

[Beam Me Up]

22. Thanks for the bump, SBF n/t

[spindoctor]

18. According to a Dutch expert on the matter

(caught this on the radio the other day)

There is enough oil to last another 60 years. After that there are still oil resources that are currently too hard to refine.
He mentioned vast supplies of sandoil(?) in Canada.

When the oil is gone, there are still enormous supplies of coal and natural gas.

He said that the problem is not with fossile fuels but with global warming. Long before our fossile fuel supplies run out, global warming will pose a far more serious set of challenges.

So rather than investing in alternative energy, you should be investing in mountain property and nautical equipment ;)

[Spider Jerusalem]

19. Well, there are a few problems with "unconventional" sources...

the Canadian tar sands, for instance, require massive amounts of fresh water for the extraction process (which is basically strip-mining), and also requires hydrogen (sourced from natural gas, a resource that's past its production peak in North America); it's also VERY polluting and environmentally damaging, and the EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) is only 1.5 (which means that for every three barrels produced, the energy of two was used in extraction; for conventional oil, the EROEI is between 10 and 30).

Coal is even more polluting than petroleum in terms of greenhouse gases. THere IS a method (the Fischer-Tropsch process) to convert coal to synthetic gasoline and diesel fuel, but the process has a negative EROEI. And coal supplies aren't unlimited; replacing our energy needs with coal would result in the life of the resource (currently estimated at +/-200 years for US deposits) to shrink dramatically.

[JCMach1]

20. I still disagree with the Peak Oil premise

But, I do see the huge danger posed by the demand curve.

China and India (and other developing economies) are exploding in terms of production and growth. Oil fuels a vast part of that consumption and creates more as these economies expand.

Unless the world can radically change consumption habits it really doesn't matter if peak oil is true or not... the demand side creates a HUGE crisis.

[Spider Jerusalem]

21. Just out of curiosity...

how exactly CAN you "disagree" with the peak oil premise? The methodology has been shown to be sound (as evidenced by peak and subsequent decline in the continental US, Russia, the North Sea, etc). There's no doubt that global oil production is going to peak and go into irreversible decline; the only question is whether it will be sooner or later.

[bpilgrim]

24. i don't get that either, peak oil production has happened

over and over again, from single wells to regional groups.

the only outstanding question regarding PO is WHEN.

peace

[MazeRat7]

28. I was thinking the same thing. Thanks for asking.

Its a given that this resource is finite. One of the main points mentioned in the links I gave was that just how finite is not know. Bottom line, nobody really knows how much "usable" reserve is out there. That said, most agree that demand WILL out pace production in the very near term.

MZr7

[atommom]

23. .

:kick:

[earth mom]

26. Kick!

:kick: