How long until Clark meetups exceed Dean meetups?

[WillyBrandt]

Dean has 115414 Meetup members.

Clark has 28305 Meetup members.

Am I the only one who thinks that the Clark number will be >= to the Dean numbers by primary time? (Yes, the two sets intersect.) Or is Dean's lead insurmountable?

I wish Clark entered earlier. He is way behind in organized grassroots support, but with just a little work, he can catch up fast.

Make it slightly easier for grassroots to talk to each other, and we can handle the rest, Wes. Grassroots got you here. It can get help you there. You seem to know that General: remember, though Dean has blazed the trail, that's no reason to stay behind.

[JohnKleeb]

1. got me

I wished Kucinich entered earlier too.

[Cha]

2. Go Clark....and Clarkies ..get out there and organize those Meetups

Love the Grassroots!! WE'll beat those bushwas!

[Pastiche423]

3. Never

[WillyBrandt]

4. But Clark's meetup numbers are climbing fast

Rates of growth are quicker on the bottom, but he's far from topping off...

[Terwilliger]

5. shouldn't this be part of Politics and Campaigns?

seems you're in the wrong forum

[WillyBrandt]

7. you might be right

my bad

[DoveTurnedHawk]

14. Just to Clarify

This post is certainly appropriate for P/C. But it is also appropriate for GD.

DTH

[Closer]

6. They won't.

[w4rma]

8. Clark has a long way to go. Dean has 400+% of Clark's numbers

and, it is my understanding, a faster joining rate.

[WillyBrandt]

12. Depends what you mean by faster rate

Faster in absolute terms or percentage over time?

The first I concede. But over the next 2-3 months it's the second that matters. Compound interest and all that.

[tjdee]

9. Who cares about meetups??

I mean, they're really great at showing how many (mostly white) internet users strongly support a candidate, but that's about it.

I think that the numbers are impressive, but they're by no means some kind of bellwether.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

16. Very True

I attended both Clark and Dean meetups in September. Despite the fact that Dean had 9x registered members at the time (only about 4x now), he had only a few more supporters actually show up.

DTH

[Julien Sorel]

18. At our Clark meetup, there were 35 people out of 100

registered, iirc, while for Dean there were 40 out of 1,000. One of the problems for Dean's candidacy is that a lot of the folks who are signing up for his meetups aren't going to follow through with any kind of commitment.

[sfecap]

21. Gee, at our last Meetup...

there were about 75 signed up, and 300 showed.

[stickdog]

30. And at mine we had 110 signed up

and 150 showed.

[hedda_foil]

19. Where do you live DTH?

There are very few Dean meetups that aren't raging successes but very occasionally the person who signs up to host isn't competent to get the meeting together. I've only heard of this happening at two or three meetups ... and there are now close to 800 of them every month. But unfortunately there have been those very few occasions when a host has screwed up and either didn't get the word out or had no idea what he/she is doing. I'm really sorry that happened at the meetup you attended and I'm sure the campaign was appalled if they were told about it either in an email or on the blog.

At the vast majority of meetups, a great deal of ground-level organizing and planning takes place during the hour or so meeting that generates a host of grassroots, local activity. What the groups do varies from place to place because it's all generated locally. Believe me, it's not just an hour away from the computer. The real action is happening on the ground in between meetups.

ON EDIT FOR BILLY BUNTER: There aren't any meetups with 1000 people signed up -- they split off to form smaller groups in all the major metro areas. Given the fact that you've never been a Dean supporter, it sounds to me as if you got your info on the Dean meetup in your area from someone who didn't know what he was talking about.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

20. West L.A.

There was a healthy contingent there, no question. Nowhere near 9x as many as Clark's though, or even 2x.

DTH

[A-Schwarzenegger]

23. Did you go to the Gaslite?

If so, I don't see how they could have squeezed
anybody more in there.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

25. Yeah, Gaslite

I was looking around for you, too!

The Meetup was definitely hampered by the tiny venue, but there still weren't as many people as I'd thought would go.

DTH

[A-Schwarzenegger]

27. Well it was pretty jammed tight in there.

I was wondering if some people might have come
and seen the jamup at the door and left. I might
have if I hadn't got there early and got a table.
The next ones (Oct. 1) are at the Gaslite
and the Zanzibar at 1301 Fifth Street. Do you know
if the Zanzibar's any bigger?

[DoveTurnedHawk]

29. No Clue About Zanzibar

And I was thinking the same thing about people turning away, potentially.

DTH

[A-Schwarzenegger]

34. I will be back

at the Gaslite most likely. It's right
up the street. I'll poke my nose
in the Zanzibar before then to see the
layout before I rsvp. Maybe I'll see ya.
I met another good DUer there last time.

[pruner]

10. Dean's lead is insurmountable

I've been actively watching the growth rates for both of them since Clark announced.

he had a big surge (10,000) the day of the announcement, but it's leveled off to approximately the same rate of signups as Dean has been experiencing for months.

[WillyBrandt]

11. You might be right

But a few things matter:

(1) How well Clark harnesses in the Internet. He has harnessed him, alright, but when Clark said he'd run a "conventional campaign" in a video message, I hope he didn't mean the bad kind of conventional!

(2) How well other publicity comes out for Clark. People don't have to hear of him on the Internet first. A few stories that mention the meetups could help.

(3) How well he does in the debates. If he just shines at the next couple of debates, we could see a significant amount of growth, especially if he plugs the meetups.

[sfecap]

13. Probably after Dean is elected President.

:-)

[WillyBrandt]

15. Dean will be elected president

In 2012, when Clark is out :)

[Jim Sagle]

17. Never. Clark is gonna tube right quick.

[IndianaGreen]

22. Get a military band to play at the Clark Meetups

and you will see your numbers rise beyond your wildest dreams. It worked for the Hitlerjungen! :evilgrin:

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[stickdog]

26. This might have your answer.

Abbott: You're 40 years old, and you're in love with a little girl, say 10 years old. You're four times as old as that girl. You couldn't marry that girl, now could you?

Costello: No.

Abbott: So you wait 5 years. Now the little girl is 15, and you're 45. Now, you're only three times as old as that girl. So you wait 15 years more. And now the little girl is 30 and you're 60. So you're only twice as old as that little girl.

Costello: Yeah. She's catching up.

Abbott: OK, so how long do you have to wait before you and that little girl are the same age?

Costello: What kind of question is that? That's ridiculous. If I keep waiting for that girl, she'll pass me up. She'll wind up older than I am, and she'll have to wait for me!

Abbott: She'll have to wait for you? Why's that?

Costello: Because I waited for her!

[DoveTurnedHawk]

28. I Believe Clark's Absolute Rate of Signups Is Currently Higher Than Dean's

Which would imply Clark eventually catching up, even though that might be a long time from now.

I fully concede that Clark's current burst in Meetup numbers is likely due to his current high media profile from his entry last week, though.

DTH

[WillyBrandt]

32. Yes, Clark needs to do work

Any chance we could steal Joe Trippi? Dean saw the grassroots potential and harnessed it very wisely.

Clark must do the same. He needs the money, the manpower, the publicity and the support.

I hope he plugs meetup during the Dem debates.

[ScreamingMeemie]

31. Keep this in mind. I am sure lots of people may sign up for both. An edu-

cated voter is a good voter. People go to these meetups to learn more about a candidate, not necessarily to give him their vote.

[WillyBrandt]

33. I've gone to Dean meetups

... and not everyone there was committed, I can tell you. We need to convert some Deanies.