MY prediction on the Oct. 7th recall

[jeter]

My prediction is that Davis wins. Not because of this debate, but because of Bush's plunging popularity. Midterm type elections are hard to predict, because it is all about voter turnout. Case in point the 2002 midterms, the 1998 midterms, the 1994 midterms, etc. etc. etc.

Who are you angrier at?

That's what midterms come down to in the end. Now I know this isn't a typical midterm. But it is almost.

People are angry at Bush and opponents of his will come out. The Greens, Arianna's supporters, and Democrats. All of them are opposed to the midterm.

Polls are funny things. I still stand by my original argument that Arnold finishes third (after Bustemante and McClincock). His numbers in the polls are only at 25% they don't go up. They don't go down. They are stuck there. Frozen.

I am willing to bet every penny that I have that one-third to half of the people who say they are voting for Arnold are ignorant people who probably won't vote at all.

McClincock's supporters are more rabid. And if anything, Arnold divides his vote, not the other way around. Cruz will get about 30% to 35%.

This is how I see it breaking down:
Cruz 30 to 35%
McClincock 20 to 25%
Arnold 15 to 20%
Arianna 5 to 8%
Green 5 to 8%
Everyone else - the difference.

Davis will survive with about 50 to 55% voting AGAINST the recall.

California Republicans will retain their well deserved title as "the dumbest people on earth."

Comments.

[mddemo]

1. im for coleman

just for the dit value.

[oasis]

2. That's a good assessment, the anti Chimp/GOP vote. McClintock

was on Fox Hannity's show for about twenty minutes tonight and Hannity was begging him to drop out the whole time. Tom is not going to drop out, period.

[Jack Rabbit]

3. You may be right

Arnold lost this evening and McClintock benefitted from it. McClintock may finish ahead of Schwarzenegger on election day.

To be honest, if the race were just between the two of them, I'd go for McClintock. I'd have to hold my nose while voting for someone so far to the right; nevertheless, I would trust him with the day-to-day matters of running the state far more than I would trust Schwarzenegger.

Most commentators I've seen this evening have given the highest marks to McClintock and Camejo. I tend to concur. Bustamante didn't really hurt himself, but he could have done better. The same can be said of Arianna.

Nothing said tonight changed my mind. I'll vote No on the recall question and for Bustamante as the replacement.

On Edit

As for the recall question, it will be close. A few eeks ago, Davis looked doomed.

[IndianaGreen]

4. The recall will fail

as it should! If Californians don't want Davis, they should vote him out when he runs for reelection. It is crazy to have Davis get 50% of the vote, and get ousted by someone that got 26% of the vote.

Vote NO! on the recall.