Great analys of Bush* approval #'s by Josh Marshall

[fizzana]

In fact, I'm pretty sure the last two presidents who won second terms (Reagan in 1983 and Clinton in 1995) were doing worse a year out. But the key here is that the president's numbers seem to be in something close to free-fall. His approval ratings have fallen roughly 20 percentage points in four months. And both Reagan and Clinton were on the rebound at the time.

<snip>

The problem is more fundamental. For quite some time this White House has functioned like a heavily leveraged business, an overextended investor that suddenly gets a margin call. To extend the business metaphor, the White House has been surviving not on profits but expectations of future profits or, in other words, credibility. The White House has been able to get the public to sit tight with a lot of objectively poor news (a poor economy, big deficits, bad news from abroad) on the basis of trust.

<snip>

As we've seen recently, a hollowed-out company can push along for some time so long as no one takes a good look at the books or calls in their loans. But when it happens the fall can be dramatic.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

I think he's dead on. One major event in Iraq or at home could see his numbers plummet to the levels where only the hard-core wingnuts are still on board.

[fertilizeonarbusto]

1. I SO agreed with this

when I read it this morning.

[diplomats]

2. So did I

[west michigan]

3. A structural problem

A worthy read.

[DemoVet]

4. Excellent analysis

He managed to articulate a sense of this that I've had but was unable to put into words: that this whole thing was being run on the "hope model", the PNAC'ers knowing that they had no evidence to back up their allegations but hoping that a rose-petal-shower welcome from the liberated Iraqis and discovery of stocks of WMD's would validate their case, "See, we told you". That was the anticipated future return, and it has failed to materialize now that it's time to pay the piper. Marshall's metaphor can be taken one step further: when it's time to pay up and you don't have the do-re-mi, you're bankrupt, the same as PNAC's policy of global domination.

[RobertSeattle]

5. Love the identification of the "Hope Model"

As we would say in the Army, "Hope is not a Plan".

[DemoVet]

9. Or this:

Fail to plan and you plan to fail. This whole operation should be called the "Mother of all Ratfucks".

[janekat]

6. "Mometum" is everything in campaigns. Bush's is going down fast n/t

[grasswire]

7. I've said for many months..

...that when the American public was presented with a candidate who would make them feel safer than the Commander in Chief, Bush's numbers would be in freefall.

Wes Clark, the authentic grownup.

[KittyWampus]

8. Junior Was Marketed Using A HARD SELL

The American consumers have simply become sick of his brand.