Why is the National Hurricane Center (NOAA) so conservative in...

[Maddy McCall]

giving the public the truth about hurricanes?

I've been noticing that NHC's warning cone has centered on Pensacola, moving little, since the beginning of predictions of Dennis's path.

Now, all the models are shifting westward toward NOLA, and have Dennis making landfall on the Alabama or Mississippi coastline. But NOAA won't shift westward. (NOAA NHC is the wide red line in the graphic below).

Anyway, this bothers me, because evacuation should have already been started on the Mississippi coast. AND NOLA should have evacuated, considering the horrific consequences that will befall the city, should the hurricane strike there.

Here's the latest models:

[NEDem]

1. I think it has to do with the

unpredicatable nature of the storms. And the cost (not just monetary) of the evacuation of millions of people.

[HeeBGBz]

2. Wow, someone else noticed this?

I've been watching and to me it looks to be coming straight in my direction (Gulfport, MS) but they keep saying Pensacola, Pensacola, Pensacola. It has all the Pensacola people fretting about getting hit again and has the MS Gulf Coast people letting their guard down.

Nobody has boarded anything up here.

[Maddy McCall]

4. Are you going to evacuate? If I were you, I'd head west.

Go to Natchez or Vidalia. I certainly wouldn't hang around.

Hugs to you. From another MIssissippian.

[HeeBGBz]

9. No, I just got here

If it looks to get really bad, I'll camp out at the VA with some other members of my family who work there.

[Maddy McCall]

30. Good luck and best wishes and all that stuff.

You guys and gals on the coast are in my prayers.

[Feron]

17. But Florida is special...

My family and I joke that if New Orleans were entirely destroyed by a hurricane, the news would be about the debris and Bourbon funk that floated to Florida. I like Florida ,but the media bias is ridiculous.

Anyhow, there is no need to evacuate in New Orleans since the hurricane is highly unlikely to strike here. If the city were evacuated everytime a hurricane threatened the Gulf coast then even less people would leave. Hurricane Ivan struck in about the same area and all New Orleans got was a little wind with minor flooding.

[Maddy McCall]

31. Many in NOLA have already evacuated. I'm an hour and a half north of...

NOLA, and our hotels are full of NOLA residents.

[Up2Late]

3. This is a Fast moving storm, would you rather a lot of people die...

...because they did want to look silly by leaving early.

He's the link to a really good Hurricane prediction website from the U.K.

Lot's of stuff to click on, especially click on the wind field prediction:

<http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/>

[Maddy McCall]

5. That is completely an unfair question. My point is...

that I DON'T want a lot of people to die. Thus, all models have noted a shift to the west. But most people don't check models...they look to NOAA for guidance, and, as HeeB said above, everyone on the west side of the track has let their guard down.

Mississippian coasters should be evacuating.

[Up2Late]

18. Fair or not, their are a few knowns about Hurricanes

1) They are Deadly and destructive

2 Historically, they have been difficult to predict (path and areas of damage)

3) They effect Huge numbers of people, far more than the roads can carry at the last minute.

4) It's far better to be wrong than Dead.

I think you are forgetting that the accuracy of Hurricane prediction at the current level of about 90-95% has only come in about the 10 years. I have great confidence in the current prediction, due to this TSR.com website, but most don't have that.

Some don't even have The Weather Channel, so the ARE forced to do as they have always done, board up, and get out or the way if NOAA tells them to do so.

When I lived in Central Florida, every time the Weather service said one MIGHT hit Florida, most started stocking up supplies, then if it looked like it was going to hit, when it was 48 hours out, everyone started leaving.

If you never tried to get out of the way of a major Hurricane, you shouldn't judge people who are currently evacuating, I'm sure if my Mother was living in the possible path of a Hurricane, she would want to be one of the first to leave.

Plus, if you look at the "wind field" prediction at the website I gave you a link to, you'll see that most of the wind is going to be on the East side of the storm.

[Quixote1818]

21. .

[Quixote1818]

24. NOAA has issued Hurricane warnings in Mississippi, Alabama,

Florida and even Louisiana. That map you posted has nothing to do with the warning system.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

[HeeBGBz]

14. That's not the point

The point is they are pushing it for Florida and are underplaying it for MS and LA. They even say the Atlantic front is keeping it from going further east. It just seems a bit odd.

Time will tell, I suppose.

[Up2Late]

22. They have good reason to push people in Florida to leave and be...

...ready. I don't know who all those other colored line come from, but if you look at the web site that I gave above, and look at the "Wind Field" prediction, you will see exactly why.

The Nature of a Hurricane (and this one is very typical) is that the damaging winds are on the East side.

[Maddy McCall]

29. EXACTLY! Thank you!

[Bluebear]

6. Um, FOX News already has their whole crew in Pensacola.

How callous of you to mention the fact that Biloxi might get hit when all the cameras are all set up in Florida. :crazy:

"When in doubt, GET OUT" is my motto!

[Maddy McCall]

8. Our friend merh is on the BAck Bay in Biloxi.

She's boarding up today and leaving. She's smart. And she's internet connected. But what about all of the people on the coast who depend on NHC for their info? It may be too late to evacuate in several hours, considering that traffic on Hwys. 59 and 98 are already clogged with traffic, and there are NO ROOMS anywhere south of Jackson and Meridian.

[HeeBGBz]

10. I think anyone who was leaving is gone now

Traffic is light and I went grocery shopping with no problem this am. No report on the news of any mass exodus from my area.

Still uneasy in my gut. They keep saying the hurricane is moving NW. If they were saying NNW, I would think Pensacola. However, NW looks like MS to me, or even N.O.

[Bluebear]

11. I'm glad she is getting out

And I hear you. It is going to be pandemonium if it shifts west.

[Devlzown]

7. I don't know what to think about this one.

I live on the Miss. coast and have been through several storms -- some bad, some not so bad. I evacuated for Ivan last year and the storm turned and hit Pensacola. This one's only a category 2 right now and I'm planning on staying here this time. I just hope it goes where they think it's going.

[barb162]

12. All the models seem to be centering in about a 100 mile wide area

as it hits the coast. Yeah, if I saw all the models, i'd be leaving that particular area (and anywhere near it)

[Maddy McCall]

46. Gulfport, MS was just manditorily evacuated.

Check out these models. What do you think? Notice the NHC faint yellow line and the dark red NHC advisory line? They are WAY east of what the scientific models are predicting.

[Quixote1818]

13. That is not a good map. Use this one from NOAA.

NOAA's warnings map includes Mississippi as a possible landing place. It's ALL probability!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150306.shtml?prob

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405P_sm2+gif/150306P_sm.gif

[Maddy McCall]

23. But they are tracking the hurricane to Pensacola. All other scientific...

models track it to Alabama-Mississippi area. And people pay more attention to that central track line than to the cone.

[Quixote1818]

33. Those are all just probability's not to be looked at under a microscope

It's NOAA's best guess. Do you think they want their calculations to more off the mark then the other projections? That would hurt their reputation. Their probability map shows it could hit any place along about a 600 mile stretch from Louisiana to Florida.

[fishnfla]

15. How can a prediction be "the truth"?

Its just an edumacated guess is all. One thing I've learned, they are usually accurate within the 48 track (exception: Charley). But the storms are unpredictable.

Those other models, I never trusted. Thats just me.

Hopefully he'll stay weaker.

keeping fingers crossed

[dogday]

16. The storm is 500 miles wide

if you are that close, be prepared

[Quixote1818]

19. Funny!

But the lines make it look like it's only as wide as I-10.

Actually the hurricane force winds are usually only about 100 miles wide (if that)and the city's to the right of the eye get the winds coming directly off the ocean and get the worst damage.

[TwilightZone]

20. Truth? You can't be serious.

You do understand that storms are unpredictable, right? And that forecast models are just that - models?

The NOAA has released watches and warnings for the entire area, all the way to Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

[Maddy McCall]

26. I'm very serious. Did you know that Cindy was actually a hurricane...

when she hit, but NHC maintained TS status? Do you know why? Because declaring her a hurricane would have tripped the switch on mandatory actions that cost money, and NHC didn't want to do so.

There are political and fiscal reasons that we get the info we get. That's why I don't only look at NHC, but also many other sources.

Looks like this time those other sources were closer to correct than NHC has been so far.

[jim3775]

25. The computer models have a leftward bias. Besides...

the latest report said that Dennis is going to shift north. Hurricanes are near impossible to predict with certainty, that large cone that was posted is the danger zone the computer models are used to esablish the cone.

And of course the disclaimer should be heeded.

"CAUTION: Model projections should not be used as the sole basis for life and death decisions. Follow the recomendations of your local emergency managment personnel!"

[Maddy McCall]

27. Why do the models have a leftward bias?

My understanding is that they are taking into consideration the Yucatan low.

[Up2Late]

32. Maddy, this is the 21 hour forecast position of the winds, please, take

Take a few minutes and look at some of this stuff. They know what they are talking about.



And this is the 33 hour Current predicted position and Storm track.

[Maddy McCall]

49. Well, I said Gulfport to Mobile, so it looks like I was right.

I've been scouring all of the prediction sites for the past week. I've consistently said it would come in west of NOAA's prediction of Pensacola to Panama City.

[Maddy McCall]

28. Why do the models have a leftward bias?

My understanding is that they are taking into consideration the Yucatan low.

[jim3775]

34. Im not sure why

The computer models are wayyy to complicated for me to understand. But last year for the most part the models went more west than the hurricanes.

[Quixote1818]

35. Interesting

Perhaps NOAA is taking history into account and including previous miscalculations into their new models.

[Maddy McCall]

37. Some models are better at predicting early in the track...

Some are better at predicting later in the track. The UKMET model is known for predicting better in the later track. UKMET has been saying NOLA and the surrounding region for four days.

[Quixote1818]

38. Sounds like you have more knowledge than the rest of us on this

Perhaps you have considered something NOAA has not. Where do you think it will hit? We can check back and see how close you come.

[Maddy McCall]

42. I've considered the models I've been watching....

To me, it looks like it's going to hit between Mobile and Gulfport.

If I lived in Biloxi, I'd already have left.

I don't claim to have more knowledge. I (nor the models I'm watching) don't have the political weight on my shoulders that NHC has.

[Up2Late]

36. It's because they spin Counter Clock-wise and the upper level...

...winds almost always blow west to east.

Here's the Water Vapor Satellite Picture. The Dark areas are Dry air, and the lighter areas are Moist air.



If you go to this link, you can see it in motion.

<http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html>

[jim3775]

39. Thanks for clearing that up

This hurricane is pushing me to the limit of my understanding. Im just a summertime weather buff trying to self-learn some things through the internet.

My official prediction; it'll hit somewhere between Pensacola and Mobile.

[Quixote1818]

41. It also has to do with the global wind system

http://calspace.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange1/08_1.shtml

It's in the middle of the Westerlies

[Up2Late]

45. Sounds like a good prediction

Having lived in Florida for several years and living near the Home of The Weather Channel, it tends to make you a bit of a Weather Geek.

Ever since I watched, for almost a week, The Weather Channel accurately predict (within about 5%) the track of Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and then all of them after that, I've wanted to know more about the tools they use to predict them.

Now that their is so much info available on the internet, it's really taken most of the worries out of this stuff. Now I mostly just sit back and watch in amazement, something that only a few years ago seemed so unknown.

[Gay Green]

40. It's tracking a little to the west of the NHC line

vortex.html



:scared:

[Maddy McCall]

43. Yes, and just a half a degree of difference over Cuba can make...

many degrees of difference in landfall.

[Egalitariat]

52. I'd say the NOAA just about nailed it with Dennis

They're projections were just about spot on.

[Quixote1818]

44. Wow, cool map nt

[carpetbagger]

47. Because the forecasters are better than the models.

As of 1700 EDT, the models have converged upon the NHC model, shifting to a Pensacola-Mobile track. The divergence is pretty common, and forecasters are best to take them with a grain of salt.

People along the margins should also take the central path with a grain of salt. As such, people in Mississippi are under a hurricane warning, New Orleans under a tropical strom warning.


From nhc.noaa.gov...

"THE NEW 18Z NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONVERGENT AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
A TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AREA. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT
...OR EAST OF LOUISIANA...AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS 3 NHC FORECAST
TRACKS. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK."

[Maddy McCall]

50. Actually, NHC has moved west to where the other models have...

been predicting for the past several days.

Heres an animation that is very informative:
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?4

[Maddy McCall]

48. Most recent computer models, and, sadly, I'm more confident...

about my predictions for Gulfport to Mobile.

[Zynx]

51. NOLA will be fine - it takes a real "sweet spot" hit to sink them

Basically, the center of rotation needs to come right into Lake Pontchartrain, and thus dump the Gulf into the Lake and the Lake into NOLA. This makes NO the only city in the world that really, really wants hurricanes to pass to its LEFT. NE quadrant wind sure beats being drowned.

So, you need a strong, slow 3, or any 4 or 5 coming in on that exact course to cause the worst case scenario for New Orleans.

The problem here, however, is Mobile. Mobile Bay is a deathtrap, just like Tampa. It won't stay flooded like NO would, but it will still be plastered.

Frankly, NO, Mobile and Tampa *all* need major engineering projects to deal with their lousy locations. NO needs another dozen feet on its levees, and Mobile and Tampa need some sort of storm barrier in those bays.

[fishnfla]

53. FWIW Maddy, they were right

Cold comfort Hope all is well up there