Dennis: Upgraded to Cat. 3, mandatory evacuations in Gulfport MS, Cat. 4?

[Bluebear]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 092147
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL...CORRECTED
540 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...CORRECTED FOR TIME...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY TO 947 MB.
DENNIS HAS REGAINED DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...CATEGORY 3
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 115 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE THIS
EVENING.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 092058
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 6 HOURS MAKES! SATELLITE...RADAR...AND NOAA AND
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS POSSIBLY STARTED
A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE. THE EYE HAS BECOME BECOME DEFINED IN BOTH
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE PRESSURE IS NOW 955 MB...DOWN
ALMOST 10 MB IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BEGINNING
TO CATCH UP WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS AS INDICATED BY A 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 101 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 91 KT SURFACE WIND
...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/12. DENNIS HAS MADE A LARGE
WOBBLE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE PAST 2 HOURS...BUT THIS IS
PROBABLY A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVING
EXPLODED AND WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE EYE. ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL...I EXPECT DENNIS TO
RESUME A NORTHWEST MOTION OF 320 TO 325 DEGREES. THE NEW 18Z NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONVERGENT AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
A TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AREA. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT
...OR EAST OF LOUISIANA...AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS 3 NHC FORECAST
TRACKS. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB NORMALLY WOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105-110 KT...BUT THE INNER CORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STILL FLAT DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...
THE SMALL 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE...RECENT SHARP PRESSURE FALLS...
WARM WATER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ALL
SUGGEST THAT DENNIS SHOULD GO ON AND INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN REGAIN CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH BEFORE IT
MAKES LANDFALL ON SUNDAY.

VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON RECON DATA

FORECASTER STEWART

http://cw.pwless.net/tropical.html

$$


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/09...

[KittyWampus]

1. darn, hoping it weakens.

[geomon666]

53. It's not. It's not going to weaken before hitting land.

If you're on the coast and in the path. Get out or find a storm shelter but do not stay in your home. Trust me on this.

[ewagner]

2. Aren't you in Gulfport?

Are you getting out?

[Bluebear]

4. Me? No I'm in wicked liberal New England

:)

Mississippi friends, please take good care!

[HeeBGBz]

35. I am in Gulfport

I'm not leaving.

See. I knew they were leaving MS gulf coast for a last minute evacuation.

Dawgs.

No place left to go anyway. Florida and Alabama have filled up all the hotel rooms. My house is sturdy and I'm a mile or so from the beach.

[geomon666]

54. You don't have a storm shelter to go to?

The least you can do is cut off any branches that look 'loose' and remove anything that can turn into a missile. Also if you're house is prone to flooding, take precautions because this is a wet one. Good luck.

[HeeBGBz]

60. Yeah, I could go to the VA but...

It's on the Back Bay and further east than I am. I feel safer here. Not as close to water and sheltered to the south by a big brick building. I've tried to rid myself of any projectiles. Then I looked at my neighbor's yard full of shit and decided, what's the use?

Just went down to the beach and took pix. Nothing bad going on at all. The waters are kicking up a bit and there is a light steady wind blowing.

[Maddy McCall]

3. Thanks for this info.

I-55 has been clogged in the NB lanes here, and I'm 100 miles north of N.O.

I've also heard that 98 West is clogged and that 59 and 49, out of Gulfport, is back to back.

I guess we'll be opening the shelters here soon.

[Pithy Cherub]

5. Already?

Since it is out over the Gulf, it is picking up a head of steam. The focus has been on Florida. x( this is going to cause a massive rush! Please Be Safe!

[steve2470]

6. update from nhc

000
WTNT64 KNHC 092147
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL...CORRECTED
540 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...CORRECTED FOR TIME...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY TO 947 MB.
DENNIS HAS REGAINED DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...CATEGORY 3
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 115 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE THIS
EVENING.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/092147.shtml

[Bluebear]

8. I borrowed that for OP buddy

Thanks for that.

[steve2470]

11. oops nt

[Bluebear]

12. no oops...

Stole it from YOU! :) Thanks for posting!

[steve2470]

14. oh ok thought i goofed lol nt

[steve2470]

9. latest forecast from nhc

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/092103.shtml?


Hurricane DENNIS Forecast/Advisory
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Strike Probs Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

UPDATE Position Estimate


000
WTNT24 KNHC 092103
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
2100Z SAT JUL 09 2005

CORRECTED PRESSURE/LOWERED TO 955 MB BASED ON NEW RECON DATA

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...
AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 84.6W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 84.6W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 84.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 35SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.9N 87.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT...105NE 85SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.3N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.2N 89.3W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 37.0N 89.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 38.0N 87.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 39.0N 82.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 84.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[Lorien]

10. I've only been through a category two

believe me, you don't want to stick around for a three! Pack up the family and critters and leave if you can!(Don't forget to tape the windows).

[Elwood P Dowd]

7. We're getting heavy rain and winds here in SE Alabama

Looks liked it's going to hit the Alabama coast near Gulf Shores.

http://cw.pwless.net/tropical.html

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

13. please stay safe!

hope you have water, battery operated radio, etc.

[Elwood P Dowd]

18. Thanks. I have a generator, batteries, inverters, water,

and plenty of beer. Looks like it will be west of us, but we still might get some bad stuff from the counterclockwise winds that extend hundreds of miles from the east of the eye. We lost trees and our roof was destroyed last fall.

[Bluebear]

15. "Stronger than Ivan, stronger than Opal" - Natl. Hurricane Center

speaking on CNN. "Hurricane is not a point, stop focusing on one point, this storm will affect entire area, likely a category 4 at landfall."

[Up2Late]

16. Check out the Qucktime mov of Dennis from the same Satellite

It takes a few minute to load (even with a fast connection it might at a minute) but it's worth the wait, if your into that sort of thing.

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast/hurricane/colormov/0000_latest.mov

[Bluebear]

17. That is awesome! And look at that eye defining itself again!

:scared:

[Maddy McCall]

19. On one sat photo I looked at awhile ago....

You could see the sea surface through the eye. :scared:

I have said all along that it was coming for the Gulfport-Mobile area. I hope I'm wrong, because many coastal Mississippi residents have assumed that the NHC advisory line to Pensacola was going to be right and that they'd be on the east side of the storm.

NOLA residents took it seriously, though. OUr hotels here are full of people in vehicles with LA tags.

[likesmountains 52]

21. Are you in NOLA? What's happening there? I have not been able

to reach my son down there..

[Maddy McCall]

24. I'm north of NOLA.

I'm keeping up with the news out of NOLA through www.nola.com.

I'm about 100 miles north of NOLA...many Louisiana residents are already here. I expect shelters to start opening soon here.

[likesmountains 52]

29. Thanks, he said that it seems calm in NOLA..no huge exodus yet..for Ivan

he was in his car for 6 hours to get from NOLA to Slidell! I hope he doesn't wait so long this time. You stay safe too.

[amazona]

33. no evacuations from Orleans Parish

Glad you heard from your son OK. Yes, pretty calm here.

THe probability of a hit on New Orleans is so low that many people from Mobile area have now evacuated into hotel rooms in downtown New Orleans. No evacuations are advised from Orleans Parish. Voluntary evacuation of Jefferson Parish, even Grand Isle (!), have been cancelled.

I think he will be OK if he just stays put, that's what I'm doing. The storm would really have to do something weird now to hit.

[Maddy McCall]

34. Harrison County, south of 1-10, and Mississippi Coast casinos ordered to..

evacuate. Casinos ordered to close at midnight.

[likesmountains 52]

40. Thanks, he's kind of nonchalant....like a 21 year old would be.

[Maddy McCall]

43. Yes, when I was his age, hurricanes were cause to break out the gin.

Today, it's time to go buy ice, water, batteries, and hope everything turns out ok.

Send him best wishes from me.

[HeeBGBz]

36. Yup, Maddy, it figures

I went to see Fantastic Four and saw people finally boarding things up. I'm staying home and riding it out.

[Maddy McCall]

44. Stay safe!

Where are you? ARe you in Gulfport? Merh is in Biloxi on the back bay.

[HeeBGBz]

47. Yeah, i am

Nothing much to do, but wait for it.

[Pithy Cherub]

20. It is serenely beautiful to look at, BUT

this is truly a horrific disaster in the making. :scared:

There is nothing between it and the coast. It's going to slam right into shore and the storm surge is going to be really big!

Have family up near Tupelo, but the rain this thing is bearing is going to flood everything.

Oh wow, people please be safe and be kind!

[merh]

22. Bluebear - where do you see Gulfport

Predictions are still Mobile/Pensacola.

[Maddy McCall]

23. DENNIS WILL BE CAT 4 IN SIX HOURS, POSSIBLY CAT 5 BEFORE...

LANDFALL. If it lands west of Mobile, it will be the most expensive hurricane in history.

Read Dr. Jeff Masters' blog at wunderground.com:

I urge all residents of the Gulf Coast in Alabama and the Florida Panhandle who were undecided about whether to evacuate to get out now!

Dennis continues to break the rules for what is usual for a hurricane. In my previous blog entry, I wrote that it is very unusual for a major hurricane to regain its former intensity after a long crossing over land. However, Dennis is poised to do just that.

Aircraft recon just measured a central pressure of 947 mb at 5:15pm, an 11 mb drop in 90 minutes--a rarely observed rate of intensification. The eyewall shrank from 15 miles in diameter to 12 miles, and the satellite presentation confirms that the storm is undergoing explosive deepening. Dennis will surely be a strong Category 4 storm in about 6 hours, when the winds have time to catch up to the pressure falls, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Satellite imagery shows an outer wind maximum is probably forming, meaning Dennis will enter another eyewall replacement cycle tonight after this phase of explosive deepening is over.

The current track of the storm is more WNW than NW, and is likely a temporary wobble similar to two others this storm has already done. I expect Dennis will shortly resume its previous northwest track. The most recent wobble occurred as the storm was doing its previous rapid intensification cycle just before it hit Cuba. The current wobble is enough to probably spare Panama City the worst of the hurricane, but increases the danger to Mobile. A direct hit by Dennis just west of Mobile could easily challenge Hurricane Andrew as the most expensive hurricane in history. Dennis's storm surge of 15-20 feet would push into Mobile Bay and cause tens of billions in destruction. Even if Dennis hits further east near Pensacola, as I still expect, the damage will surpass Ivan's $13 billion and Charley's $14 billion to make Dennis the second costliest hurricane on record.

If you want to watch live windows media player feeds, check out:

CBS WFOR MIAMI FL.:
http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live

CBSNEWS.COM FEED 1
mms://eyenet.wm.llnwd.net/eyenet_livenews1 (Showing the same as above)

CBS WKRG MOBILE AL:
mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

CBS WIAT PANAMA CITY:
mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93323

http://www.weatherserver.net/livevideo.htm will show all 3 feeds will at once. Thanks to [e-mail], who posted this info on the [e-mail] email list.

Dr. Jeff Masters

[steve2470]

25. latest position

[steve2470]

26. winds of Dennis

[KerryReallyWon]

27. It will now be a 4

when it hits...

[Up2Late]

28. Here's the forecast winds from the website I find is very accurate

It's at <http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/>
About 19 hours from now, at 10 Jul, 2005 18:00 GMT


They have a lot of great links too.

[Bluebear]

30. OK Weather channel reporter said they were evactuating!

Dude in Pensacola (Mike Seidell?) said they wouldn't be reporting from there too much longer because even THEY don't want to be stuck in it!

[jim3775]

31. More...

I dont think it will get to a cat5, before it hit Cuba eyewall replacement started when it was a strong cat 4.

EDIT: I take that back it might get to a cat5.


This radar loop makes it look like it might be inching toward MS-NOLA:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Navy Sat:


Wind forecast:

[Bluebear]

32. Weather channel: Hurricane hunters report pressure down ANOTHER 5mb

[annagull]

38. I have family in Mobile, everyone is sleeping

They have been up since 6 this morning battening down the hatches at home and on the boat, praying it loses some strength but that doesn't look like it's going to happen.
:scared:

[Gay Green]

45. Latest Update

10 PM Central Time: 26.6 degrees North, 85.3 degrees West, Cat 3 with 125 MPH sustained winds, moving NW at 14 MPH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/100240.shtml

[Gay Green]

46. And here's the new track - landfall in Mobile Bay now.

Good thing Mobile ordered mandatory evacuation!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405W_sm2+gif/024557W_sm.gif

[BeTheChange]

37. Im obviously not a meterologist..

but I really think this thing is going to hit further west then they are predicting. It's headed WNW over hot waters. The eyewall will redevelop. I say Mobile.. I hope to God it stays the heck away from NOLA.

[HeeBGBz]

39. Mandatory evacuations in Gulpfort

Mandatory for sections A, B and strongly recommended for zone C. Of course the map of the zones is so freakin small I don't know where exactly I am. C, I think.

http://www.msema.org/evacuationinfo..htm

?Rnd=3265032524

[BeTheChange]

42. Stay safe!

Mandatory evacs in Gulfport kinda scare me... not that I dont wish for the safety of everyone involved.. but we all know what would happen if NOLA got a big hit.

I just dont think that this storm system is playing by the rules.

[Gay Green]

49. Me too!

Imagine all the people stuck in traffic, caught by the storm if tomorrow morning shows Dennis making a beeline for that town. :scared:

[HeeBGBz]

41. Last time I rode out a Cat 4 I ended up pregnant...

Wonder what will happen this go round.

[greekspeak]

48. Animal behavior and this storm

I have noticed some strange animal behavior here in Tallahassee today. It is a little disturbing in light of historical reports of animal behavior before natural disasters

1) At the gym today, I went into the locker room and it was full of Palmetto bugs (big flying roaches). I have never seen so many in one place. They were all dead, but they must have gone in for some reason

2) Frogs jumping around like they are lost. I see frogs a lot but they seem more disoriented than usual.

3) Joe T. Cat-My own cat has been bawling his fool head off all evening. It is usually his "I am hungry" alert. But he has been doing it all evening.

Kind of upsetting. I hope all of us fare well, regardless of party, ideology, etc.

[ewagner]

51. Tally has been

getting some nasty rain squalls...and a little wind.

Do you think that trashy electrical grid will hold up?

[greekspeak]

63. As of 2:30 PM Sunday the power here has only flickered once

However, my partner had to go to work this morning and came home around noon. He saw downed power poles, lots of small debris. Lots of rain around town too. At the same time, the sun has peeked out a time or two, if only for a second or two. Not a lot of lightening or wind. All the really REALLY bad stuff will be west of here.

[ewagner]

64. That sleazy apt complex

power system has been in "brown out mode" since around 10Am local time....crappy...lots of downed branches in the complex..a biggie missed his car by ONE PARKING SPACE! Whew!!!

[Up2Late]

57. Tallahassee going to get some rough weather too.

This is the predicted winds for the morning (10 Jul, 2005 12:00 GMT)



So the animals are most likely right, those ar Tropical Storm force winds in Green.

[HeeBGBz]

61. I went outside this morning

There were several birds lined up on the back fence. There was a squirrel in the magnolia tree chittering a warning call like they do.

The beach was vacant except for two human walkers and a couple of gulls flying about and me taking pix.

[Selatius]

50. Yes, I live on the coast just one town east from Biloxi, MS

Biloxi this afternoon was rather quiet. There was very light traffic, and a good number of the stores were already boarded up. Highway 90 goes by the water in Biloxi, but the waters were still and calm like nothing was happening. I can't remember hearing any birds, but I'm sure there must be some still around. Everything looked normal except for the shuttered shops and empty casinos. It was kind of unsettling. It's surreal.

I'm under curfew now. When it lifts tomorrow, I'll probably buy up some more batteries for radio equipment/flash lights. Gas prices went up something like 10 cents all over my area since Friday. Everything right now is calm and quiet.

[Pithy Cherub]

52. Please be safe - if you should go, do not hesitate.

If it hits the coast as a Category 4 you may need supplies for a week! Please be safe! :pals:

[Selatius]

58. Thank you for your kind words

It's comforting at this time. Thank you.

[HeeBGBz]

62. I'm one town west of Biloxi

Good luck to you. Nothing going on yet, but the breeze has kicked up a little.

[Maddy McCall]

55. *******DENNIS IS NOW CATEGORY 4***************

Not being reported by NHC yet, but read this meteorologist's post on wunderground.com's blog.

***********
RECON vortex fix shows the pressure has dropped another mb to 940mb, and they found a max wind of
131kts in the northeast quadrant. This is clearly a CAT 4 hurricane, and the NHC should be updating
the status of storm shortly. The buoy located 115NM ESE of Pensacola is currently reporting gusts to 39KTS
and sea swell heights have increased to 15 feet, coming in from the SE at a wave period of 11 seconds.
The water temp there is 83 degrees.

The eye is 10NM across, and the thermal gradient between inside and outside the eyewall is up to 9 degrees.
The current rate in intensification will likely continue for another 6-12 hours, but it is unlikely (IMHO that
Dennis will reach CAT 5 intensity (920mb). In fact, a case can be made for some weakening during
the 3-6 hours just prior to landfall.:

1) There is a faint hint on the latest stepped IR (Dvorak) image of an eye wall cycling process beginning with
a 'double ring' of cold tops visible near the eye wall. (Got to look real close....) The cycling will be complete by
morning, at the same time of the normal diurnal convection maximum.
2) By that time, Dennis will begin passing over somewhat cooler water which will inhibit rapid intensification.
3) There is considerable dry air to the west (and significant southwesterlies in the upper levels (aka wind shear)
which may finally manage to get brought into the western side of the circulation during Sunday afternoon.

But, for about the 10th time, Intensity forecasts are extremely prone to error, especially over the short term.

The latest set of available model runs remain clustered on a landfall near Mobile Sunday afternoon, and the NHC
has just changed their landfall point to go along with the consensus which shows Mobile as having the highest probability for
landfall around 5PM Sunday afternoon/evening -- very close to the same place Ivan came ashore last year. The latest
00Z GFS shows landfall right over Mobile at 5PM.

If Dennis comes in to the west side of Mobile Bay, versus to the east (as Ivan did), the important Mobile
Port area will suffer far more damage from the storm surge that would funnel up into Mobile Bay.
Assuming an intensity similar to the current intensity, (low end CAT 4, which is stronger than Ivan was at landfall)
the storm surge will be in the 14-18 foot range, with some areas in Mobile Bay experiencing a 20 foot surge.

Steve

Side Note: I am forecasting the price of oil will be $5/barrel higher come Monday morning than it was on Friday
as Dennis will be moving across prime oil real estate -- something that was not expected by Futures Traders on Friday.

[Pithy Cherub]

56. Breaking news on CNN - 135 mph

40 miles out from the eye - that is massive!

[Selatius]

59. Update: Sustained winds now at 145 mph

This thing must be going through explosive development at this point.

http://www.weather.com/