Latest NHC advisory about Dennis

[steve2470]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/100050.shtml


Hurricane DENNIS Public Advisory
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UPDATE Position Estimate


000
WTNT34 KNHC 100050
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 DENNIS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER AT THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...
AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS
MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND
DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A STORM
SURGE OF 12 TO 14 FEET...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N... 85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

[mandyky]

1. Wasn't Dennis a cat 4 once already?

or was i hearing things?

[SoCalDem]

2. before it hit Cuba.. then it dropped to a 1

now it's back up there:scared:

[yankeeinlouisiana]

3. When it hit Cuba it was a cat 4.

After it passed over Cuba, it dropped to a cat 2. It's starting to gain strength again.

[Maple]

4. How likely is it

to hit New Orleans?

[steve2470]

5. Hurricane DENNIS Strike Probabilities

Hurricane DENNIS Strike Probabilities
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UPDATE Position Estimate


000
WTNT74 KNHC 092254
SPFAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

29.9N 87.2W 38 X X X 38 PENSACOLA FL 32 3 X X 35
32.3N 88.4W 8 22 1 X 31 MOBILE AL 27 6 X X 33
34.2N 89.3W X 20 4 1 25 GULFPORT MS 22 5 X 1 28
SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 BURAS LA 13 3 1 X 17
VENICE FL 2 X X X 2 NEW ORLEANS LA 7 7 X 1 15
TAMPA FL 2 X X 1 3 NEW IBERIA LA 1 1 1 2 5
CEDAR KEY FL 3 2 X 1 6 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 2 2
ST MARKS FL 8 6 X X 14 GULF 29N 85W 33 X X X 33
APALACHICOLA FL 24 2 X X 26 GULF 29N 87W 46 X X X 46
PANAMA CITY FL 28 2 X X 30 GULF 28N 89W 8 2 X X 10

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/092254.shtml

[Maple]

6. Thank you!