Tropical Storm Emily on the way

[BOSSHOG]

Here we go again. At least we'll be past the halfway mark in July before we get to the "f's".


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505.html

[Oreo]

1. 5 day forecast track

[dogday]

5. Looks like it is heading somewhere

between Texas and La.... Uh, that's kind of where I live...

[NawlinsNed]

11. This is why I board up the windows in the summer...

... and never take the boards off until the winter. I have neighbors that put double insulated windows on their 30 year old house, and the windows were so thick that they can't even put boards on the windows because there's no place for the boards to catch.

[Dr.Phool]

2. Oh goody, another one.

[Obamarama]

3. OMG!! Someone quick....secure those Ramada Inn signs NOW!

I loathe the thought of seeing Anderson Cooper (cute as he is) doing a play-by-play of a hotel sign being blown down.

[sleipnir]

4. It just took a turn to the Gulf.

It was poised to hit the Atlantic Coast of Florida, but not now...

Though, it's still about a week out from US landfall so anything could happen.

Why do I get the feeling that the populations of the Gulf States are going to be dropping in the next 2-2 years? Oh, I guess because no one wants to live where they get pounded with hurricanes every other week.

[Boomer]

6. And what will August and September bring?

So if early July has Cat 3 & 4 hurricanes, what can we expect by the end of August and September, when the season hits its peak?

Anyone for a Cat 6 designation?

[Endangered Specie]

7. It is very hard for a storm to maintain cat 5 status

for more than a few days, even then, it does not go much past the c5 cutoff line.

[Boomer]

9. I'm curious (but not yellow)

Are there specific laws of physics that make a Category 5 intensity difficult to maintain? Or is this limitation based on observational data?

If the latter, then there is the possibility that global climate change may create conditions that would support more intense hurricanes.

I've tried to find out what the threshold may be and why, but never found anyone who can answer my question.

[NawlinsNed]

10. Mostly because...

You need two things to create a really powerful, sustainable hurricane: lots of warm water and an absence of high upper level troughs.

Most hurricanes form out in the Atlantic after coming off the coast of Africa. While they can form over the Atlantic, the water there is pretty cold. By the time they get to the Carribean, they will likely either run into Cuba or Puerto Rico or just slam into Florida. Any contact with a significant land mass is going to weaken the storm.

Think of a hurricane as a kind of atmospheric top that gains strength the longer it spins over warm, open water. When a hurricane encounters either wind shear or a land mass, it'll start to wobble and lose momentum due to friction. If you remember, when Dennis hit Cuba, it was almost a Category 5 storm, but that friction from the land and the lack of open water to draw moisture from weakened Dennis to the point where it had to reestablish its eyewall. Remember that force = mass * acceleration, and when an eye is over land, it's losing mass by raining itself out faster than it can absorb the moisture from its feeders. Hurricanes need an unusually steady flow of warm, moist air to sustain themselves.

If there were no Cuba or Florida, the Gulf coast would see plenty of Cat 4 and Cat 5 storms, because the nature of the jet stream would suck all of them up from the lower Carribean into the Gulf. Those islands essentially protect us from the strongest storms.

[Boomer]

12. Thanks!

I appreciate you taking the time to write such a cogent explanation of the forces at work.

From what you say, those islands are going to take the brunt of our intensifying hurricane seasons. As usual, those who can least afford it are paying the highest price.

[Endangered Specie]

13. True, but most people who live on those islands have more

experience, and the main reason why hurricane "damage" has gone up, and is really high here, is because weve spent tons more on building stuff near where the hurricanes strike.

[Boomer]

14. I wasn't thinking damage $$$

Sure, the cost of property damage is greater here in the US, but our loss of life is lower.

The islands suffer significantly higher casualties due to the flooding. And losing family members is beyond cost analysis.

It's also a matter of scale. The cost of replacing a dirt floor hut may not be prohibitive to an overall island economy, but people living on the edge it can be devastating. Just losing the cow that feeds your family can mean the difference between healthy children and ones who die of malnutrition.

[Endangered Specie]

16. yeah, when I said 'damage' I meant the dollar sum

often quoted to judge hurricanes by how much in property value they destroy.. The loss of life is a completely different category

[Auntie Bush]

21. Very good explanation. You should be a teacher! But I have a

question. If/when we do indeed have global warming and the sea level raises...wipes out most of the islands...puts the tip of FL under water...pushes the East coastline back...then there would be less land interferience...and many more miles of open warm water...then would it be possible to have Cat 6 hurricanes?

[bullimiami]

15. the coming global superstorm?

who knows. we havent been around taking notes that long....

[Gay Green]

17. In the book "The Coming Global Superstorm"

Art Bell and Whitley Strieber said that as the storm unfurls the Atlantic is a series of tropical depressions -- "a deadly chain of pearls."

[Boomer]

22. Future tense is morphing into present tense

That "deadly chain of pearls" is forming in the Atlantic right now, not at some indeterminate date in the future.

[Endangered Specie]

8. Theres a good chance it will take a 180 degree turn and hit nothing

[Gay Green]

18. Or barge straight into Texas

and rain itself out over *'s ranch.

[Endangered Specie]

19. Having been through hurricanes, its not something youd want to

wish on people, a) Bush wont be there, b) It will hurt/kill/ other people and destroy their property.

[Liberal In Texas]

20. Actually, we could use some hurricane rain up here in north Texas.

Bush's "ranch" isn't anywhere near the coast. Usually by the time it gets this far north, we just get a nice tropical soak.